Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
btw
bludgers
we still hold the high ground
housecarls to the frontline
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:06 am
No-one seems to mention it, but Gillard’s credibility really nose-dived in the aftermath of the live cattle trade issue. That was very badly handled, regardless of political persuasion.
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:06 am
Remember who 3 out of the 4 Independents decided to form Govt with ?
That it is the key
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:07 am
Once the ETS becomes law, Abbott’s big challenge is surviving 2012.
Frankly, voters will be sick to death of the whole carbon debate by the middle of next year. The only thing they will remember (for a short time) is the tax cuts.
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:07 am
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:07 am
No 502
Yeah, that’s done a lot of favours Frank. 39-61 in the polls and all.
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:08 am
Pussy revenge…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyuUWwYrFLE
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:08 am
Minority government will be the norm in future. More progressive than reactionary. Good times ahead.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:08 am
Its not. But it’ll probably just disappear like every other dumb/corrupt thing the Liberals do in favour of another repeat of ‘Gillard lied/has no gravitas/murdered Kevin Rudd’ etc:
by rishane on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:08 am
It reminds me of this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUD4sfNqLF8
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:09 am
I think abbotts epitaph will be
I COULDA BEEN THE CHAMPION
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:09 am
GP:
Give it up mate.
Your chances of getting an early election are Buckleys.
I know many of you Fibs think that Federal politics is all just one big episode of Big Brother, but it isn’t.
The Lady’s in for another 2.5 years. And the Lady ain’t for turning.
So live with it.
by smithe on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:09 am
How many pieces of legislation have been passed again ?
!60 and counting
Polls Schmolls – look at the results in the house.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:10 am
Simon’s Cat is a lulu!
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:10 am
No 504
Yeah, it’s a loss still the same.
I’m not sure that minority Liberal government would have been great anyway – the only reason to want minority would be to go immediately to another election.
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:10 am
Giardia Preliminaries
how many seats will abbott win?
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:11 am
And your argument for this is?
by blackburnpseph on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:11 am
No 512
Passing zillions of pieces of legislation is not what I’d want as a badge of honour.
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:11 am
You really have no insight do you ?
by MickGCollins on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:11 am
Frank,
Wig makers made a fortune.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:11 am
Gus:
Cavalry to the flanks.
Take ‘em head-on then send in the donkey-wallopers to envelop once they’re engaged.
by smithe on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:12 am
No 511
LOL, comparing Gillard to Thatcher is offensive really.
Gillard has all the authority and gravitas of a wet lettuce.
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:12 am
GP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3F4GmbHl5g
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:12 am
6km 9 secs
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:12 am
As there are two years until the next election, where does the extra 6 months come from?
by blackburnpseph on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:12 am
Actuiually that is their real hair – try Hairdressers and tons of hairspray which put a hole in the ozone layer.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:13 am
Frank
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:13 am
Brilliant
by Dario on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:14 am
No, wrecking is so much easier… Abbott the Wrecker, yes we can!
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:14 am
BBS
sunshine
no offence
but you iz wrong
we still have up to 2.5 yrs till am election
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:14 am
Frank,
Real hair? So wow!
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:15 am
smithe
the welsh archers are still held in reserve
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:15 am
Catch is on.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:15 am
Can somebody explain to me where this figure of 160 pieces of legislation comes from? I did some research last week and came up with 110 since the last election. Other posters on here quote 130.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:16 am
Gaspari’s Penitence
maggie passe about 40 bills all up
suck up that sludge
sludge sucker
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:16 am
GP:
Which is but one of the many reasons the Indies told your boy to get lost.
by smithe on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:17 am
Peloton is angry.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:17 am
No 522
Little black duck: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyE4CLM0QIA
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:17 am
Trivia re the Marcie & The Jones clip – they are wearing OPrue Aton dresses.
Prue is a well known Liberal supporter
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:17 am
Gusface
How do we have an election in January 2014 when the last election was August 2010 and the house sat in 2010?
by blackburnpseph on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:17 am
bbs
get with HANSARD old dick
I know the synapses are malfunctioning
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:17 am
No 528
I have no problem with wrecking the carbon tax, mining tax and various other stupid Labor policies.
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:18 am
blackburnpseph, good summary in the wiki article. Covers the laws and posible circumstances of the next election
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election
The lecetion laws allow a bit of leeway, it can be a bit more than 3 years.
by Leroy on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:18 am
Frank,
Love the dresses, what there was of them.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:18 am
Surely second half of 2013 is the most likely option.
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:18 am
BBS
dorry old coque
maths aint for you
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:18 am
What a finish
by Dario on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:19 am
Cavendish.
Backed by Aussie.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:19 am
If you want to end the carbon tax you’ll need about $8 billion.
How are you going to fund that without the mining tax and when the Coalition can’t even find $2 billion of savings?
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:20 am
Good to see that you have a firm grasp on why the Fibs are currently in opposition GP.
by imacca on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:20 am