Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
victoria @ 5244
Exactly! And you have really put it mildly.
by bemused on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:09 pm
about time, a few months ago people where saying she should do this, now she has she is wrong again
Julia cannot win even here
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:10 pm
victoria
.
Apparently the police have only worked their way through 1/3 of those 11,000 pages of juicy stuff re the phone hacking so no doubt there is much more to come. I wonder if there were people working for Rupes UK papers during the phone hack spree that are now working in Oz for the OO etc ?
by poroti on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:10 pm
from what i hear she has a new adviser and older man and very grass rootes been in the labor party for years
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:11 pm
Agree that Gillard should NOT be launching a book by the tainted Christine Nixon. Cannot possibly do any good. Let’s hope it doesn’t do too much harm.
by Darn on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:13 pm
HD-DVD player, DVD, PS3 (2), Projector, Media player, anamorphic lens slide, TV, Foxtel, Gas heater, Air conditioner and another one that I can’t figure out what it’s for.
Had an all-in-one (Logitech, I think) but it got dirty and the grandkids helpfully put it in the dishwasher for me.
Phut.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:14 pm
Exactly what I’ve been thinking my say. Damned if she does, damned if she doesn’t. Amazing stuff.
by Gary on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:14 pm
david @ 3822: (sorry I missed this post last night)
That’s an opinion you’re entitled to hold.
I don’t have a clue to what you’re referring to here.
That’s an opinion you’re entitled to hold.
Thank you for the compliment .
I don’t have a clue to what you’re referring to here.
______________________________________________________________
All that said, what you’ve had to say reinforces my earlier assessment of you.
by charlton on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:17 pm
funny how you mainlanders see ms nixon every time we watched we thought it was
gotcha moments and felt sorry about it.
the poor woman didnt know how the fires would turn out, i think its time you victorians got over that episode I DONT MEAN THE FIRES OF COURSE.
may be our pm is a loyal person, to all , may be she was ask a long time ago.
pick pick pick pick
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:17 pm
Just on the Christine Nixon thing because someone helps launch a book doesn’t mean they endorse everything the author says in the book or what they’ve done.
Anyway, looking at the latest polls I wouldn’t think there is too much more damage it could do to be frank.
by Gary on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:17 pm
Gary and my say … with respect. The statements were not a criticism of the PM, they were noting a change suggesting that the PM may indeed have something on News. I maintain my view that she should fight back hard when the opportunity presents.
by nappin on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:19 pm
Victoria is very safe labor area
and frankly christine nixon is a non issue everywhere else, most people wouldnt even know who she is, we tas, do take a bit more notice of what happens in vic
but nsw and qld ‘ WHO S SHEE’
would be the cry and out of uniform also
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:20 pm
victoria@5246,
It’s probably not necessary for Gillard to know anything particular about Limited News here in Australia – she just needs to knows a bit about Murdoch and his management techniques.
Anyone who believes “uncle Rupe” is a slightly befuddled old dear who is now past it and is really not across what goes on in the editorial offices of each of his papers is … well … probably a News Limited reader!
Rupert instigated the culture that led to the NOTW scandal, as he does for every media outlet he controls.
Gillard is probably just putting Limited News on notice. Why not? Do you think she should be worried they might start campaigning against her government?
by Oscar on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:20 pm
The little sods. I have 3 Logitech harmony remotes, highly recommend them (once they’re set up). FWIW, my lounge room one (1100i) controls:
HD-DVD player (snap!), PS3, Xbox360, plasma, projector, screen, cd player, AV pre/pro and a PVR. Fun times.
by autocrat on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:21 pm
Re Christine Nixon. Doesn’t mean much outside if Vic, as far as I can see. Book launches are always a bit of fun. PJK likes them
by nappin on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:22 pm
***OFF TOPIC***
George,
This is my mate from America’s email back to me:
Hope you find something there. You might also try the Australian DTV Forum (if you’re a member). If not a member there’s probably a thread on remotes if you search back through the archives.
http://www.dtvforum.info/
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:22 pm
i wasnt aware till this morning she has a new adviser,. heard it from a very good area.
he has been around politics for year and and older man
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:22 pm
No anamorphic lens? I’m disappointed (that’s what I design).
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:23 pm
If you want to win votes, pick a fight with someone the public can identify against.
Newscorpse maybe one of those creatures so it this might be a tactic.
by Thomas Paine on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:24 pm
I’m not convinced Nixon is as hated in Victoria as the shock jocks at AW make out. Yes she has enemies, no doubt, but I don’t think she’s enemy no.1 with the majority.
by Gary on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:24 pm
Nah – don’t really have a proper projector at the moment, and no scope screen. Not to mention the cost of the anamorphic lens!
by autocrat on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:25 pm
victoria – Mighell in same boat as Howes with election looming. I don’t know Mighell and I didn’t particularly like what he said about Howard in 2007 but I thought it was awfully hasty for Kev to get rid of him and the ETU at the drop of a hat.
Was an apology asked for before Kev waded in?
I thought everyone had a lot of time for Christine Nixon prior to the bushfire ‘dinner’ episode. So the media stirring up hatred for her out of all proportion to her action then shouldn’t colour everything others do to show appreciation for previous good work.
What have we become when the media dictates what our Govt. can and cannot do.
Look at silly Latika today – I heard Windsor this morning and there was no ‘dump’ spoken off. He expressed the likelihood of Abbott winning but also said Abbott is a dud. Did Latika report that? Latika might soon find that her thoughtless tweets will do her in. If I could tweet I’d ask her to confirm Windsor’s exact words. I bet she’s too chicken to confront him with that – she’d be put back in her place pretty quickly.
by BH on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:26 pm
Maybe a good political move from that person you supported 100%, hey TP?
by Gary on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:27 pm
Gary@5269
I’m not a Victorian, so I cannot talk from that perspective. But to most of the rest of Australia Christine Nixon was a hardworking woman in a highly responsible and very difficult job who made one mistake and got pilloried for it in a way no man ever would … does anyone see a parallel here?
by Oscar on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:28 pm
Mighell has an axe to grind. When he decided to become Neil Mitchell’s union mouth piece on AW he lost me.
by Gary on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:29 pm
Maybe, but its well past time for someone to take on News Corp. And this’d probably be as suitable a time as ever. The media coverage is already shameless, the polls are already low, its not like News can really do much more damage than they already did. And if the Government does succeed in say, changing media ownership laws or whatever, then that’s something good for the future of the country. Everybody wins except Rupert and his cronies.
by rishane on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:30 pm
The point is, justified or not, she despised by some. There is absolutely NO upside to doing this. Mind you, yet to confirm its actually happening. No sources are attributed in the Herald Sun article.
by Leroy on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:30 pm
why well again all media talk at the time, gee we get sucked in well some do
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:31 pm
So is Gillard.
And if it were anyone else’s book there would be no upside either.
I suggest there is little or no downside. What the polls will collapse? Er, take a look at them.
by Gary on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:33 pm
Bushfire Bill
Would you be responsable for some of the ones I’ve seen on the Oz Theatre Screens website ?
by poroti on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:34 pm
nappin – I agree with that. Don’t let any water go under the bridge. yesterday the ex-Army bloke, Leahy, came across in the media as saying the Govt. were ‘bad’ in Afghanistan. He actually didn’t say that but that is how it was interpreted.
It was 24 hours before Stephen Smith decided to put the story straight and say things had changed since Leahy’s time under Howard. (Leahy 2002-2008).
I guess Leahy was one who thought it OK to leave Afghanistan in 2002 and go into Iraq – a stupid and idiotic action. I don’t remember Leahy making any comments to the media about that being a sensible thing to do.
So, nappin, I say every time the Govt. gets comments which can be refuted or explained they should do so and very forcibly – demand equal time on every radio/telly station and put up someone to speak. Mike Kelly, Mark Drefuss, Ed Husic, Andrew Leigh and others so that the Ministers can get on with their jobs.
by BH on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:34 pm
my say @ 5261
You really “don’t get it” do you?
There are marginal seats Labor needs to defend in Victoria and others we need to win if we are not going to win enough seats in other states.
One of the Vic marginals is McEwan which was impacted by the bushfires. Associating with a person seen by many as deserting their post on the day of the fires is not a good move. And the catastrophic fire conditions were forecast, ignorance is no excuse.
by bemused on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:34 pm
When Frank is frank, then frankly, being frank is what Frank does best !
by scorpio on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:37 pm
Actually, stories at the time suggested she was well like by a large number of these people and seen to be doing a good job. It wasn’t all one way.
by Gary on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:38 pm
Wendi Deng reminds me of May Ling Soong
by Thomas Paine on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:40 pm
BH, it’d be nice to hear a bit more of “The Govt says …” on the ABC et al instead of “The Opposition says the Govt policy is …”, which is almost the std opening line in news bulletins these days.
by nappin on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:40 pm
BB @5265 – cheers!
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Yet another in the farrago of lies is undone. The ad nauseam line of “helping the police do their important work” is shown to be the BS we all knew it was.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jul/20/news-international-deliberately-blocked-investigation
by Diogenes on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:42 pm
What’s this about Rudd undergoing heart surgery?
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:43 pm
george
Aortic valve replacement. The 20 year old prosthesis is wearing out. Op on 1 Aug – off for 2 months – Emerson to stand in for him.
Rudd will contest Griffith.
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:45 pm
Thanks BK
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:46 pm
napppin – would be nice so if Annabel Crabb is saying that the OO et al just copy media releases from the Oppn I reckon the Govt. should ask why its own media releases are not copied verbatim.
I know that the Govt. sends out as many releases as the Oppn does. Why aren’t they used.
by BH on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:46 pm
The “poor woman” was told at the beginning of the day it could be a catastrophic outcome, with temperatures of 45 degrees predicted. Her response was to bring her own private memoirs into the office that day and work on them while Victoria was burning. Then she went off to dinner at the very time that the fires were at their most threatening. You don’t forget that kind of neglect of duty by your police Commissioner in a hurry.
I do agree that it is mainly a Victorian thing but let’s not forget that Victoria is one of the states that Gillard is still doing reasonably well in and she needs every bit of support she can get. Frankly I am appalled that she would endorse a book like this, but I will still vote for her in 2013. I just hope all her other supporters in this state will do likewise if they are similarly concerned.
by Darn on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:47 pm
That’s quite serious. I think a redo AVR has about a 5% mortality rate.
by Diogenes on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:48 pm
Gary @ 5283
And then came the Royal Commission…
by bemused on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:49 pm
Speaking of health issues:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/republicans/8648165/Tea-Party-favourite-Michele-Bachmann-suffers-incapacitating-migraines.html
by shellbell on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:49 pm
So, It’s Brown-nose Bolt from now on?
And there’s the Abbott line dressed up a bit, “Shit happens.”
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Diog
That is a worry.
Also a worry is whether Abbott will grant Rudd a pair for the period of his convalescence.
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Darn
But she “had to eat!”. The food in the Emergency Response Centre clearly wasn’t good enough for her.
by Diogenes on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:50 pm
latikambourke Latika Bourke
RT @Davidramli: Turnbull has come around and cancelled doorstop at the last minute. Assembled media banned from asking him any questions.
by david on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:51 pm