Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Mesma has the authority of a cabbage moth when it comes to Foreign Affairs.
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:21 pm
bearer of negatity back again,
this is from what i understand having had a heart murmer my slef much simpler than it use to be.
for gods sake bad enough msm with our a so called labor person saying it first
this what i would expect from news
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:22 pm
Very unlikely. Apart from death (about 5% chance) there is a risk of a significant stroke of about 2% from memory. There are a few other things but I’d guess he has a 90% chance of being fighting fit in 2 months.
by Diogenes on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:23 pm
My pomposity detector just exploded.
by Two Piece Feed on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:24 pm
MICK – But for Foxtel, the NRL is a bigger driver of subscriptions than the ARL – and that is why the clubs are so pissed off.
http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/clubs-ploy-to-abandon-foxtel-to-get-rights-value-20110719-1hnb0.html
by rosa on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:24 pm
To those wishing otherwise – buggered your plans eh?
by Gary on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:25 pm
so you beleive the media rumour, then,
it aint going to happen
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:25 pm
Fine. Ethics have been at the heart of your professional life for some fifty years.
You’ve answered Gus’s question. Why the offence?
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:25 pm
my way of thinking any one who came here with this sort of negative talk
is all talk and not labor
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:26 pm
Who’s doing this wishful thinking?
by Gary on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:26 pm
Even if it is, unless Rudd is on his death bed I reckon they would get him there somehow for the vote – even in a wheel chair.
I seem to recall that at one stage Ted Kennedy made it into the US senate for an important vote when he was very ill, so it’s certainly not without precedent.
by Darn on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:27 pm
Evan
I actually think that Rupert did OK (from his perspective). He successfully pulled off the King Lear role and may at least kept himself out of Wandsworth. Some of it may have been real???? OK, OK I do not really believe that but he did act the frail old man well. Sometimes he actually looked like he really did not know the names mentioned.
James was awful – Might have suited Wall St but not too sure about the UK where that sort of guff is parodied by comics. Think a spell at Her Majesty’s pleasure is a possibility. He also came over as incompetent and just the foolish son of a patriarch, promoted many rungs above his ability level. A middle to junior public servant at best and not ready for elevation to the SES.
I did not see Bekka so cannot comment.
I did see Stephenson and Yates. Stephenson came across as a decent if naive guy but one who had made a serious misjudgment (mostly about the spa treatment).
Yates on the other hand!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thought he would fit in well with a pre Fitzgerald Qld. Perhaps he can now be recruited to Vic. Slimy, creepy and evasive. Also full of process garbage which makes me suspect he is rather dimwitted too (just good at covering it with flummary new speak)
by daretotread on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:28 pm
She could not be seen through the hair
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:30 pm
Wasn’t it Reith that came out (after the presidency hoo haa) last week and said wtte that the Libs desperately needed to develop policy ?
Would have thought that they could have developed any adequate policy by Dec this year, let alone August.
by MickGCollins on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:30 pm
People salavating about Kev not coming back ?
Tell em’ they are dreaming.
I had my aortic valve replaced with a mechanical valve in 2001. 8 days in hospital, 7 weeks at home. All good.
All I do now is take warfarin and have blood tests every six weeks or so. Go and see my specialist every year.
My valve will last me my whole life. That was 10 years ago. Even more advanced now I would think.
All thebest Kev, you will be fine.
by Doyley on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:31 pm
Wouldn’t have thought that they could have developed any adequate policy by Dec this year, let alone August.
- whoos thats better
by MickGCollins on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:31 pm
some people from the older generation just dont keep up with the new ways and improved conditions in medicine,
that’s why i find RPA very informative, also have medical rellies of the young generation.
When i was due to have mine years ago they told me that infection was the only problem and that was 44 years ago. but the valve grew stronger and no op.
and those days you took penicillin for half of your life
.
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:31 pm
Isn’t Turnbull’s attack today on Abbott and the Libs a huge story?
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:33 pm
what attack ?
by MickGCollins on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:34 pm
It’s all so clear to me now… this is my Evan14 moment.
Crean will take over on Friday (only 48 hours more in the sun Ju-Liar), Rudd retires hurt from Parliament, gets job as UN Secretary General, Coalition wins by-election, forces no-confidence motion, wins, Abbott elected by 100 seat majority.
Carbon Tax buried. NBN stopped. Subsidized nannies provided for in Budget. Women on $150k get full pay maternity leave, taxes slashed, 12,000 public servant “bludgers” sacked without any loss of services, Nauru becomes 7th state opens “guestworker” resort, Lord Christopher Monckton appointed as Governor General, economy turns around overnight, Gerry Harvey ets GST put on imported mattresses (no-one complains about it, either), happiness index soars, $20 billion budget surplus.
All by Christmas.
I have seen the future and it is bright.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:34 pm
it is quite disgusting to bring the msm rumour here, when Mr Crean has repeatedly said nonsense as long ago as to day i beleive
having met him and his brother also i found them to be amounst the most honourable people i have ever met
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:34 pm
daretotread
You might like this article.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/mark-steel/mark-steel-how-about-a-tv-detective-called-yates-2312536.html
by poroti on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:35 pm
Correction:
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:35 pm
where is the link to that, shame kev should of told us tomorrow, now we want hear about MT
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:36 pm
Mick,
My apologies,
Hit a link from a recent post and was taken to a 2009 story.
Drake’s mistake
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:37 pm
Love it!
by scorpio on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:38 pm
Drake, I can only find these recent articles.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/turnbull-takes-rupert-murdoch-at-his-word-20110720-1hofj.html
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8275099/nbn-contract-could-be-torn-up-by-liberals
by Leroy on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:38 pm
my say,
false alarm
I got it wrong
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:38 pm
The Independent and The Guardian are having a fun time. Wonder how the relative circulations are going.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:39 pm
Leroy,
sorry
didn’t happen
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:39 pm
From those two Malcolm Turnbull efforts (posted above), I don’t see any sign he is about to break ranks. Keeping clear of talking about the Carbon package.
by Leroy on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:40 pm
drake
.
Those links were from late 2009 or so. However after such strong language I cannot see it ever being sweetness and light and more than a few did vote for MT during the spill. Many of them must surely be grinding their teeth watching what TA is doing to political debate in Australia.
by poroti on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:40 pm
Don and Gus
Just catching up and have only seen your posts, so I’m sorry to drag the discussion back to that classic. Didn’t they only nail your head to the floor if you had “transgressed the unwritten law”? Also didn’t one of them have a rather over-zealous fascination for Sailor’s Homes and Youth Clubs? Or am I thinking of the Kray Twins, who must have been the inspiration for the Pirhanas.
by Allan Moyes on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:41 pm
Poroti,
That’s why I jumped. I feel something’s brewing. No evidence – just a hunch.
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:43 pm
But Latika said he was muzzled and cancelled a press conf.
what was that about
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:44 pm
My guess is MT will not do anything, despite disagreeing. He will wait until the Carbon package is presumably passed (already said he won’t cross the floor though). Then there may be opportunities in the future to capitalise on any move with the business community to accept the new reality.
by Leroy on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:45 pm
[But Latika said he was muzzled and cancelled a press conf.
what was that about
That was just Latika being Latika. She's not the most analytical cog in the media wheel.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:45 pm
“He successfully pulled off the King Lear role”
I have seen this comparison used a couple of times today. Has anyone using it actually seen or read the play? It would mean he pulled of the role of raving loon who trusted the wrong people and ended up dying of grief (actually..).
You might play that role inadvertently, but I doubt you’d do it deliberately.
by roaldan1000 on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:46 pm
about 2pm i think will try and find it
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:47 pm
My Say
This is a blog about polling and elections, not a Julia Gillard fan club.
I write as I see the implications for polls and elections.
Unlike you, I actually am a member of the Labor party and have been for most of the last 40 years. Being a labor supporter does not mean slavishly following the latest public line. It means having policies and principles which mostly (never 100%) are consistent with labor policies or which may become labor policies in the foreseeable future.
Writing in this blog is not saying things directly to the electorate and therefore is not like a letter to the editor which may affect many voters. I work on the assumption (dubious I know) that the posters here are politically savvy and capable of thinking most of what I say for themselves. This is an ideas exchange forum and there is not much point in treating it as if our comments will in themselves affect the electorate or voting outcomes.
At best they may influence a few advisers or journalists but there is little I say that they could not pick up form a dozen other sources.
I strongly suggest that you refrain from ascribing political positions to others. Politics is complex and there are many competing thought processes in us all. Labor is a very broad group, ranging from those who are practically Greens and even communists, through to those who are religious fundamentalist conservatives, closer to the DLP and with views to the right of Tony Abbott.
That is OK – That is what a political party is all about.
Unfortunately too many on this site see only one band of political view point – one which I see as being right – to far right Labor. This is just one stand of labor thinking. There are another 30-60% which do not share the views of many on this blog.
by daretotread on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:48 pm
david
Posted Wednesday, July 20, 2011 at 1:51 pm | Permalink
latikambourke Latika Bourke
RT @Davidramli: Turnbull has come around and cancelled doorstop at the last minute. Assembled media banned from asking him any questions.
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:49 pm
[ Dan Gulberry
Posted Wednesday, July 20, 2011 at 3:11 pm | Permalink
An online petition from Avaaz:
To PM Gillard, and all members of Australia's government:
We urgently call on you to launch a comprehensive review of our media laws and hold a full inquiry into Australia media's practices including far-reaching investigations of Rupert Murdoch's News Limited. It's time to protect our privacy and our media, and safeguard our democracy.
http://bit.ly/qifqc8
Thanks dan
Done.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:50 pm
BK
I’m afraid I give no credibility to Hartigan, given what we have just been witnessing in the UK. Call me cycnical, but I just can’t believe the Australian press is squeaky clean on all of this.
by Allan Moyes on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:50 pm
drake
I’m with you. The forces of elightenment within the Coalition must surely be chaffing under the burden of having to stand silently beside those of Unenlightenment. I did not take much notice at the time but boy Malcolms comments were blunt. I cannot see him changing his view on the issue one iota since then either.
by poroti on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:50 pm
has nothing to do with fan clubs,
hs to do with writing stuff that the media can see, so many people read this blogg
it doesnt pay any labor person to put ideas in their heads .
they can manange that very well on their own.
nuf said i think as frank would say
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:50 pm
regardless of any lib/lab/green divide, this guy is a true hack. I heard him a couple of times on talk here in Brisbane during the insulation kerfuffle piling it on the goverment.
Here is my take on it – a lot of the fault for the insulation death can be laid directly at the feet of Electrical work in previous decades. The code calls for all wiring to be fixed 70mm below the bottom cord of roof trusses, and 70mm below the top of ceiling battens. This code has traditionally been blatantly violated. If you go up into many ceilings, you will find electrical cable loosely laid over the top of the Bottom chords of the trusses; where the kids inevitably stapled through them – in accordance with the law of averages.
Other fires happened because of the incorrect installation of downlights.
Bottom line – Electricians did not do their jobs according to code – kids died.
Mighell is a dishonest agenda pusher – blithely ignoring his tradesmen member failings, and blaming Peter Garret for them.
by JohD on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:53 pm
Roaldan
Yes of course I have read the play. He had a choice of playing the doddering foll, who trusted the wrong people or a conniving old demon who encouraged and supported illegality. I would play Lear if it kept me out of gaol. Not too good for shareholders – but choices have to be made.
Note he also tired to play James as an innocent newby who made foolish decisions because he had just got into the job.
I did not stat the Lear theme but it is very apt. He may not have seemed blind but he sure seemed deaf. James was not too bad as Cordelia either.
In fact Bell Shakespeare could do a great play right now – all the players are there. Even James going to gaol instead of his daddy is rather like Cordelia’s death.
by daretotread on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:56 pm
Yes, he did, didn’t he.
I suspect a bit of legal experience in the background (tho’ I haven’t checked his bio yet).
Whenever he got an answer he wasn’t expecting or wasn’t happy with, he just didn’t let it go like one or two of the others did, but chased the rabbit-down.
Looked and sounded like a lawyer.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:58 pm
You are delusional if you think anyone is going to d a deal with Murdoch or his minions in the current climate.
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:58 pm
smithe
The Avaaz petition site is interesting. You can see people signing up in real time. New signups by the second.
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 20, 2011 at 4:59 pm