Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
There is an amazing congruence between this and Julia Gillard’s carbon tax statement.
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:17 pm
my say @ 5575
On that we can agree 100%.
Or as I told my 12 yo granddaughter when she asked my age…”I am an 18 yo trapped in a 63 yo body.”
by bemused on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:17 pm
i have checked back and there is no way i have said anything like this,
come on you know better than that
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:18 pm
my say
Some of your posts are a little hard to understand.
by lizzie on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:18 pm
I’ll show you pompous.
by Gary on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:19 pm
Kersebleptes
I do try to follow diligently, but sometimes…
I think I’ll go and have something to eat.
by lizzie on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:20 pm
there was a fantastic article in the guardian tried to re find it,.
saying taht MPS around the world where murdochs paper s are now have nothing to fear some labor mps said it was like have a weight lifted from their shoulders they could now speak
what a tradgedy this is
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:20 pm
What a load of Bollocks.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:20 pm
Fair enough. I’ll butt out.
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:21 pm
New board game “Murdochoply”
http://www.christopherfowler.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/image1.jpg
BTW Rebekah Brooks’ nickname is “The Witch of Wapping”.
by Diogenes on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:21 pm
no i ask bemused as he lives in melbourne did he do that,
i am sure the person he spoke to would of said ‘ rubbish
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:21 pm
no i dont live alone, that day come s to all of though,
another scary thought
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:22 pm
my say….what your critics appear (to me at least) to be saying…is that it’s ok for them to find something about Julia’s behaviour/looks/speaking style etc. to denigrate…all in the cause of “improving” her public persona of course….
But not for the likes of you and myself (who you will never hear making any negative comments about our excellent and courageous PM)…who only want to present a positive and optimistic view of how she’s travelling….
Take, for instance, the announcement that she’s going to help Christine Nixon launch her book….that’s been forensically dissected on here as if it’s some world shattering event… WTF does it really matter whose book launch she assists?
I’m of the school of thought that says Julia has more than enough enemies all too ready to take potshots at her. Cowards one and all is my view of them. What I wish to extend to her is my belief in her as our PM…and all the positive energy I can summon up to assist her re-establish the good, generous & progressive thoughts that reside in most Australians.
Loyalty is one of the most valued of human characteristics…and you have that in spades, my say….. Ignore the critics and wear their brickbats as a badge of honour…
by markjs on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:22 pm
There would be a certain irony if Gillard government dies because the man she stabbed decided after going under the knife he didn’t have his heart in keeping in the game.
by ifonly on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:22 pm
What Sexist comments.
Nixon was in constasnt mobile phone comntact.
But hey Nixobn Bashing is ok.
Youy make me sick
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:22 pm
So they’ll just all fall in line, eh.
The old fait accompli: If you build it, they will come.
You sound more and more like Tony Abbott with each utterance.
Sure the polls are shit. But who gives a flying F*ck at this stage of the game? We’ve got good policies and plenty of time to get them up and running and sell them to the public before the next election 9in well over 2 years).
And the polls won’t limp along at 26%. You can bet your sweet bippy on that.
Murdoch’s got his arse in a sling and Abbott’s BP has gotta be 250/150 with all the spinning he’s doing. A few more months and he’ll go-off, like a poorly-rivetted Stephenson boiler: Ka-Boom – Brain explosion.
Panicking and lopping heads at this stage is sheer suicide, as anyone with half a brain can see. It would make Labor look like a scared shitless rabble. And caucus ain’t that stupid.
So drop the crap about a spill, will ya?
And if not, please nominate which branch you belong to, as others have asked.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:23 pm
No you are wrong.
Its open to the public without registration. Anyone can see what is posted.
Libs would love to see *so called* labor people putting the boot into their own lot.
by dave on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:23 pm
amazing this woman fought crime the state, for years, i beleive, isnt that worth more than one mistake.
lets see what s in the book shall we
julia is a team player you see
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:24 pm
My say
Thank you for this. I’ll be 63 in October. You go ahead and say what you like on this blog. You write with passion and, indeed, compassion which a few of us here might envy. Plus you have this talent with fabrics!
Boerwar
I’ll get in touch with my Swiss broker about a visit to your Greek hideaway. I have a coffee jar full of 50c coins that could do with a good wash.
by Allan Moyes on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:26 pm
Daretotread, I’ll give you one thing at least you hold the temper and try and argue the case.
I don’t think the blog is here to run or influence the Labor Party personally. I think that is stretching a point.
by Gary on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:26 pm
Good stuff, markjs!
by Kersebleptes on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:27 pm
drake @ 5608
Why?
by bemused on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:27 pm
from an onlooker and bystander my rellies tell me in vic , it was paper talk
as my dad use to say
just paper talk dear just ignore it, and they did those days
papers like the old truth, o my god if my father saw one them, did he let fly.
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:28 pm
An observation. But a well researched one with footage of Abbott twice saying he was in favour of an ETS.
by Darn on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:28 pm
my say @ 5610
Of course I didn’t. I am not in the habit of wasting the time of MPs, their staff and party officials with stupid phone calls.
by bemused on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:28 pm
my say
What Allan said + 1
by Boerwar on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:29 pm
DRAKE WAS joking,
i get the humour here is wonderful humour,
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:29 pm
i will go and set talble for he in door s is nearly back from a meeting and ponder that one
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:30 pm
how odd, thats where one hears the real story, and they actuly like to have encouragement well it s the tasmanian way up untill about 10 years ago may be you
could on some day even speak to the premier.
but having him over for lunch was even better sorry to brag
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:32 pm
Frank @ 5607 & 5614
Nixon clearly deserted her post when she should have been there.
Save your loyalty for those who deserve it.
by bemused on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:32 pm
Being from New South, I’m not up to speed on Nixon.
From what I gather, her ‘sin” was to waltz-off to some function or other while the Dandenongs burned or something on Black-whichever-day-of-the-week-it-was a few years ago.
Seems a bit roughn to me.
What was she supposed to do? Stick around and piss on the flames?
Whatever.
Another anti-Gillard storm in a teacup, methinks.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:33 pm
That Cassandra Wilkinson on The Drum was great.
Why can’t Labor find a safe seat for her?
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:33 pm
The Liberal posters on Bludger just don’t get it. OTOH, it is perfectly obvious to rational people.
When Mr Abbott says he supports an ETS he means that he does not support an ETS. And when Mr Abbott says he does not support an ETS he means that he does support an ETS. He always means both. He always means neither.
Now, here is the real philosophical issue for us Bludgers to consider in relation to Mr Abbott:
Is Mr Abbott a sock puppet?
by Boerwar on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:33 pm
http://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-murdochs-2009-9#james-murdoch-the-heir-to-the-empire-9
I found this interesting.
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:34 pm
You want deserting your post – What about Jo-Harrison Ward during the WA Bushfires being completely silent.
At least Nixon was within contact.
Spare me the bullshit.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:34 pm
ShowsOn
I thoroughly agree. Cassandra is very good value.
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:34 pm
my say
What Mr Moyes and myself were saying was that we appreciate your posts. Please do not stop.
by Boerwar on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:35 pm
Exactly – At least she was in contstant contact with those on the front line – you do NOT have to be at the command centre 24/7
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:35 pm
Lachlan must be happy that he took the money and ran.
by Boerwar on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:35 pm
Boerwar@5596
The ALP also have the luxury of sitting and watching to see what develops in the UK regarding compulsory disinvestment of media asserts of newscorp – or whatever else they come up with. Then it remains to be seen what the fallout in the US will be.
The Brit politicials must all know they are dead meat in future years if murdoch manages to wiggle out of all of this without major reforms having been put in place.
The ALP can learn from all of this.
The extent of newscorps media 70% concentration in Australia and strengthened privacy laws are options and I’m sure there are many others under consideration as well. All without licensing the press.
by dave on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:36 pm
my say @ 5617
A little more than 1 mistake.
Three on the 7th Feb (Hairdresser appt, biographer appt., night at the pub for dinner)
Then the memory lapses before the Royal Commission that resulted in her being dragged back.
Not a good look and the PM does not need more lead in her saddle bags.
by bemused on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:37 pm
And with contact vbia mobile phone.
More Nixon Bashing.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:37 pm
bemused,
Why are women so bitchy to other women in power?
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:38 pm
Frank
Damn right. Just ask Mr Abbott. You pick up the batphone and order the boat sunk. You pick up the batphone and you send folk off to Nauru. You don’t need to be in Nauru to order refugees to Nauru. You don’t actually have to be in the water to order the boat sunk.
Most of all, you can pick up the batphone any time you want and change your mind.
Easy.
by Boerwar on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:38 pm
What’s all this about, my say?
Do you have a spinning-wheel or something?
I must say, I usually like your posts. You normally make sense and indeed write with passion.
Plus you never seem to come-up with monumentally stupid ideas, like having a spill and dropping Gillard. Unlike some others here.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:39 pm
Mr Oakes just did a bit of a skewering job on Mr Abbott.
Showed two clips of Mr Abbott fervently espousing an ETS.
by Boerwar on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:41 pm
Ah some lovely Jon Stewart skewering of Fox over their non treatment story of Rupes. Hop on line and have a look. Even does a News Corpse headline joke.
by poroti on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:41 pm
Daretotread
Serious question.
Do you use Bai Lin tea leaves for reading?
I use Nerada and they seem to be very flat.
by Gaffhook on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:42 pm
Boerwar
Did Oakes get the catatonic nodding response?
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:42 pm
Boerwar at 5632:
Bingo.
Hand that man a cigar.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 6:42 pm