Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
26 meetings between Cameron and the Murdochs. This is the context to the instruction to Rupe to use the back door.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 8:56 pm
Milliband knows something and is throwing grenades, very good politics Ed well done
by david on Jul 20, 2011 at 8:57 pm
The Speaker is a cracker!
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 8:57 pm
Love the Speaker.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 8:57 pm
Gweneth
The suicide of that thirteen year old boy and the thought of the pain he felt being so great that he took his life puts Rupe beyond the pale. So I say again Bastard Bastard Bastard !
by poroti on Jul 20, 2011 at 8:58 pm
The speaker is great! Reminds me of a bygone era
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 8:58 pm
Ed is arguing well.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 8:58 pm
Is there a live stream of the UK Parliament ?
by zoidlord on Jul 20, 2011 at 8:58 pm
confessions:
http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=11879.0
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 8:58 pm
He doesn’t shout, have hysterics or unhinge like Tone. I can understand why you regard Miliband as a lightweight.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 8:59 pm
Gweneth,
Have you the link to Pilger?
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 8:59 pm
poroti
The tragedy of that young boy rikes me. I wish the Murdochs would rot in hell
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 8:59 pm
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=8920
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:00 pm
“riles”
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:00 pm
Thanks Gweneth.
I couldn’t read all your comments tonight, but wanted something to revisit later on.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:00 pm
The Guardian is saying that Cameron was warned of employing Coulson by The Royal Family”…thought to mean”The Queen and Prince Charles !…and he ignored their advice…silly boy
The Royals hate Murdoch as much as we do !!
My advice to her……..
Put them in the Tower’s Dungeons Ma’am
by deblonay on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:00 pm
Cameron “stop hunting conspiracy theories!”
we’re way beyond THAT Mr Cameron!
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:00 pm
Cameron is awfully red in the face
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:01 pm
This is great stuff from the HoC.
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:01 pm
BSkyB still in play then it would seem.
Those 26 meetings paid off then.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:02 pm
Cleggy not happy.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:03 pm
confessions 5926,
Agreed.
I found the PM’s comments today about News Ltd in Australia very interesting.
What does News do in response ? Do they go in hard thru their papers or cry sadness and hurt as their CEO did tonight?
If it is the first approach the old “me thinks you protest too much ” comes to mind. If it is the second then the organization should be happy to prove the PM wrong.
Either way all the PM has to say is “I am not saying wrong has been done in this Great Southern land by News Corp but for your own benefit and to hold onto the trust of your valued readers perhaps we need to take a closer look, just to be sure .
As long as the PM follows this line I think News Ltd will have to agree to some external look at their operations.
Am I being naive ?
by Doyley on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:03 pm
lbd
This is where I found it:
http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=11879.0
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:03 pm
Ducky
Clegg is not amused
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:04 pm
That’s an average of 1 meeting every 18 days.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:04 pm
Keep digging Cameron, keep digging
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:04 pm
Gweneth,
Thank you. Bookmarked. I know the gist but need to refresh.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:05 pm
Cameron completely ignored the question about B-Sky B
He also referenced Brooks as support for one of his answers.
Does she have any credibility left?
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:05 pm
I want Bob Katter to ask a question.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:05 pm
Why do lots of people stand up when each speech/answer is finished?
by shellbell on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:06 pm
I told you Eddy was a light weight compared to David.
David Cameron is a much better Tory than Tone. A Statesman something Tone shall never be!
by Glen on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:06 pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/phone-hacking/8646485/Phone-hacking-David-Cameron-dinner-with-James-Murdoch-broke-the-ministers-code.html
by david on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:06 pm
victoria
Damn right and rikes is cool. As a five year old I started school that same year and as a 13 yo I came to the point of suicide. So it really resonated with me.So yes “burn in hell”
Now as for
Check out the Kiwi parliament’s speaker. It will warm the cockles of your heart.
by poroti on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:06 pm
To get the call?
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:06 pm
clegg very uncomfortable indeed
by the spectator on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:06 pm
I think they are seeking the call for the next question.
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:07 pm
I’m with you on the time frame. We’re probably looking at 2nd half of next year for a serious move back, albeit it’s hard to tell how long the tolerance of Abbott’s appalling antics and contradictions will continue.
Even then, however, it’s still a year to an election and time enough to cement some credibility. I’m optimistic.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:07 pm
Was that a LibDem?
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:08 pm
Gorgeous Dunny @ 5852
Of all the hypocrisies, inanities and insanities I see daily on Poll Bludger, this would have to be one of the biggest.
First of all, even most Labor rusted-ons don’t give here her title when mentioning her here.
And secondly, did anyone here refer to John Howard by his title when he was PM?? I seem to recall that “Howie” was one of the nicer nicknames for him.
STOP THE INSANITY
by Two Piece Feed on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:08 pm
Clegg’s body language speaking droves. Perhaps he knows what Ed knows? Any chance the Lib Dems could pull their support if this gets any worse?
by trawler on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:08 pm
beware your chair
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/23/stand-up-while-you-read-this/
by the spectator on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:08 pm
Twopence,
HoC is on.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:09 pm
Whittingdale!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:09 pm
it would be great for your core to stand up and sit down so often
by shellbell on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:09 pm
The Conservatives are asking embarrassing questions.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:11 pm
Tom Watson
Grenade!!
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:11 pm
Yep. I think it was Maggie (or maybe Major) who put him up for a gong, a knighthood.
HRH approved every name on the list, except Rupe’s. Wouldn’t have a bar of the bastard.
He’ll die a commoner.
Poor Rupe.
Even Packer got a knighthood.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:12 pm
This is seminal stuff!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:12 pm
Nice work Watson, Cameron squirming bigtime.
by trawler on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:13 pm
You think the tdF got hills? Cameron’s got hills!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:13 pm