Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Clegg could well pull the plug.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:13 pm
ducky
odds-on that the lib dems pull out of the coalition
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:13 pm
I wish they’d id the peeps.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:14 pm
Hey, charlton. I remember you mentioning a stint in the Navy. Were you ever in Sydney in the late 60s?
I wasn’t, but for a while I played Australian football with a team called Sydney Naval, which was mainly Navy lads plus interstaters in Sydney like me.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:14 pm
Am really enjoying this.
Our Parliament is so dull by comparison.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:14 pm
To get the call for the next Q.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:14 pm
Well as you have displayed such expertise on climate change that is not happening, according to you, of course we will readily embrace your latest example of talent regarding the individual talents of UK political leaders…we ignorant peasants bow to your superior knowledge. David Cameron a statesman eh? More like a slippery eel, trying to slither out of the lies he is being exposed as trying to cover up.
Appears lies go hand in hand with being the leader of a right wing tory party
by david on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:15 pm
The dynamics are so different. Fascinating.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:15 pm
And get trashed at another election.
Sorry, am sceptical on that front. He’s nailed to Cameron in the same way that O is nailed Gillard.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:15 pm
OMFG watching Sly news and a News Corpse shill telling us how FFS “shy” Rupert is. There really are people without shame.
by poroti on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:17 pm
WHAT!? All those WARNINGS yet Cameron still hired Andy Coulson!
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:17 pm
Ducky:
Our parliament seems so confected by comparison.
If ever I get the UK I am so timing my visit to coincide with a sitting week!
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:18 pm
This is a Q arising from yesterday.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:18 pm
Dodges.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:18 pm
I think the old style intimate settng has something to do with it. the old parliament house would have a similar feel.
by the spectator on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:19 pm
Bit more than 20 questions in 90 minutes.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:19 pm
gah, parliament live uk is unplayable for me
by zoidlord on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:20 pm
great accents too
by shellbell on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:20 pm
great accents too
by shellbell on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:20 pm
“The Murdoch Empire” from a question.
“The Newscorp company” from the PM in response. He can’t mention Murdoch by name.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:20 pm
I think O would consider un-nailing himself from Gilard if she was as dubious as this lot. Clegg clearly doesn’t like where this is leading…
by trawler on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:21 pm
ABC24?
Or Silverlignt / WMP?
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:21 pm
these questions about closeness to murdoch etc need to be asked in our parliament
by the spectator on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:21 pm
It’s a full-time Mexican wave.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:22 pm
What is the link to watch proceedings?
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:22 pm
fess
there has been twitter chatter about it for a few days
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:22 pm
skinner bang
cameron dodging
by the spectator on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:22 pm
TPF @ 5988
I was always very proper how I referred to Mr Howard (pron. How-odd).
It was his own side that coined terminology such as “lying rodent”. Perhaps they knew him better?
by bemused on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:22 pm
How do you reckon Abbott would stack up against Gillard under these HoC rules of engagement?
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:22 pm
Still dodging on BSkyB.
It’s still in play for Rupe I tells ya!
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:22 pm
Gweneth
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=8920
or ABC24.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:23 pm
Cameron discussed the bid – he pretty much admitted by saying “I never had inappropriate discussions” – is this Cameron’s Monica Lewinsky?
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:23 pm
BK,
A blubbering wreck?
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:23 pm
Ta duckie
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:23 pm
Gus:
What has been on twitter for the past few days?
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:24 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/
by Allan Moyes on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:24 pm
Cameron asked point-blank (three times) whether in any of the 26 meetings he discussed the BSkyB bid by Murdoch.
Finally answers: “I never had an inappropriate conversation.”
So, still not answered.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:24 pm
@Littleducky/6030,
Why link ABC? Turning to the dark side? lol
Suppose ABC24 will have to do ;/
by zoidlord on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:24 pm
Blondie from yesterday. Sharp lady.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:25 pm
george:
Cameron is clearly hedging and waiting for the scandal to die down before quietly doing Rupe’s bidding wrt the broadcaster.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:25 pm
“RE Murdoch”
God Save the Queen……
by deblonay on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:25 pm
I’m watching on APAC.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:25 pm
zoidlord,
No download cost. TV tuner on laptop.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:26 pm
Cameron desperately not answering Miliband’s questions but dragging up history instead and has just been caught out beautifully…did he ever discuss the BskyB purchase with any News International people at his private meetings with Murdoch etc..
answer..I never did anything that was not appropriate…FFS …in other words yes I did
by david on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:26 pm
Katina Curtis would have a field day with some of the attire on display tonight.
Just sayin’!
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:26 pm
overloaded?
it’s live on ABC News 24
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:26 pm
I cant see how Murdoch will get BSkyB
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:27 pm
BK:
Tone would flounder in this environment. He is completely useless at anything requiring substance.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:27 pm
I still reckon Rupe looked too comfortable at the hearing yesterday
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:27 pm
This may sound a bit stupid I suppose but does anyone think perhaps there is a slight possibility the Labour party is keeping the Labor party informed on the situation in the UK?
PM GIllard seemed quite confident on the issue today. Getting on the front foot early ?
by Doyley on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:27 pm