Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Profess,
Some seem three parts to the wind.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:27 pm
Conversations over sausages lol!
by trawler on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:28 pm
Cameron says nobody raised issue of Coulson with him- Labour MP Tom_watson tells him he is wrong because he did & still waiting for a reply
by david on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:28 pm
I agree 100%. There has been far too much disrespect, and it ought to start by ensuring the title is honored.
Originally, I suspect, a lot of it was her own humility, especially in relation to the manner she took over. Then there was the deadlocked election result. She negotiated her way to the prime ministership successfully, but Abbott and the media ran for a very long time with the ‘illegitimate’ meme and she seemed reluctant to contradict it.
In my view, her authority has increased with her ability to shape a carbon pricing agreement. Greens and Indies played their part, but Gillard led. From that point she became quite firmly the PM. She’s all but got the hardest challenge done.
Her authority will increase by respecting that formality.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:28 pm
Sleep-overs?
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:29 pm
deblonay
Why on earth would dog save Alan Jones ?
by poroti on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:29 pm
Why was Rupe asked to use the back door to No. 10 for his 26 meetings with Cameron if everything was so rosy, transparent and above board PM?
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:29 pm
poroti,
To raise a leg on him.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:30 pm
The perfect candidate for News Limited
by the spectator on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:30 pm
Doyley
I found the PM comments today a little surprising. Not quite sure what to make of it
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:30 pm
Wasn’t Abbott a Journalist for the OO ?
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:31 pm
Gillard should copy Cameron.
All ministers and shadow ministers should have to provide a public record (like the register of pecuniary interests) that lists all the time they meet with anyone in the media, either journalists or managers, or CEOs.
I’d quite like to see how often Abbott meets with people from News Ltd.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:31 pm
Been out so no able to reply but will try
Janice a few pages back
Yes you are right about Katter pairing with Rudd. I had not thought of that. However possibly not on the CT about which he feels strongly.
Bemused
I guess I was musing a bit too about Rudd not having friends – he does of course but it still must be hard going in when there is still such hostility (the posters on this blog are hostile enough and I find them hard to take so it may be even worse in Canberra).
My real fear is that Rudd will up and go, because despite confidence from some I do not think Labor would win Griffith if there is a by-election. Then we really would have Abbott in the lodge. I did not think Rudd would leave, but today’s news makes me twitchy. (Hey I was laughed at about my “Malaysian solution” twitch but my tic is not much better)
by daretotread on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:31 pm
They still have dixers in the HoC!
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:32 pm
Profess,
Look, over there!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:33 pm
Cameron’s points are all gradually being unstitched.
The Conservatives are saying yah boo sucks about Labour on their watch. But, Cameron’s story is not quite holding up.
No doubt there is more to come.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:33 pm
Cleggy still not happy.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:33 pm
I believe it was the Bulletin
by the spectator on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:33 pm
Is it unusual for political leaders to meet Murdoch? I am sure Australian politicians of both parties have met the man on regular occasions. I am sure it was reported that Gillard met Murdoch in NY since becoming PM.
by DavidWH on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:33 pm
GD @ 6053
I should also have added that her predecessor was guilty of too much informality too. In fact it is something that goes back quite a way.
by bemused on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:34 pm
Clegg far, far away in deep thought.
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:34 pm
Ducky
Agree re Clegg. His body language is very negative
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:34 pm
arusbridger RT @RobertsDan: Raynsford reveals civil service was bugged – this really is getting closer to Watergate now.
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:34 pm
From bull tin to bull dust.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:35 pm
DavidWH
It is not unusual, but 26 times?
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:35 pm
26 times. From the back entrance? hmmm
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:35 pm
WTF!
Cameron says he is completely responsible for hiring Coulson, but only to the extent that no one provided him with definitive evidence that he shouldn’t hire him.
That’s a strange type of complete responsibility.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:36 pm
george
Snap
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:36 pm
vic,
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:37 pm
victoria,
Yes,
It was just the timing of the PM’S first real proactive statement on the issue here in Australia that I found interesting. She been keeping a low profile.
by Doyley on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:37 pm
BK
I’ve always though our House of Representatives should have been called the House of Commons and have the upper house still as the Senate.
Stupid Americans!
by Glen on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:38 pm
Oh dear!
Well said, Mr Speaker!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:38 pm
Poroti, no no no no. Not Wendi, she aint a Hakka.
Uncle “Rich is Glorious” Deng yes, but she is not related. And of course our Penny is one.
It’s Hakka Hakka Hakka of burning love
by The Finnigans on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:38 pm
daretotread @ 6062
What state are you in? Are you near Rudd’s electorate?
At some stage I also made the point about Katter and also added Crook.
by bemused on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:38 pm
I love when Tories care about the hungry. So inspiring.
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:39 pm
Ha!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:39 pm
You’re another one whom should attack, in my view, the argument rather than the subject(s) thereto.
by charlton on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:39 pm
Glen
I don’t think the names of the bodies matter. Rather it’s their functions and the standing orders.
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:40 pm
Doyley
What we must remember is that the govt delayed the decision on the Australian Network before this scandal blew up. Coincidence?
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:40 pm
Does the UK parliamentary proceedings have higher viewer numbers than ours?
It is so much more rivetting and engaging than our parliament!
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:40 pm
“Julia? Ed here. Can we chat?”
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:41 pm
Glen
You like Cameron because he seems like a “proper” conservative, “Old Etonion don’t you know”
Sorry had glass of wine – not being too nasty I hope
by daretotread on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:41 pm
Weighted for population diffs of course.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:41 pm
charlton,
You’ve mistaken me for someone who is interested in anything you’ve got to say.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:41 pm
yep, the natural protectors of the hungry, the downtrodden and the have-nots….
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:42 pm
i thought it was because the seats are so uncomfortable & crowded, they cant wait to stand up
by The Finnigans on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:42 pm
Bemused
I am in Brisbane – not in Rudds electorate but since it is inner cityish visit there a bit.
by daretotread on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:42 pm
fess
Agree, it’s a lot faster moving. The answers and questions are quite snappy. Cameron is a lot better at this stuff than the Murdoch’s were.
by Diogenes on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:43 pm
Someone close to a microphone has had too much to drink.
“HAR, HAR, YAR, YARRRRR……”
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:43 pm
If, in fact, such people exist.
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:44 pm