Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Good question of leaks to media about arrests. We have the police media unit to engage in that practice here.
by shellbell on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:44 pm
Think of the inspiration of the federal constitution. Australia was being set up as a new type of country without the harsh social distinctions present in the UK
It made more sense using the term REPRESENTATIVES, rather than the term COMMONS, which implies differentiating people into different social classes.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:45 pm
victoria 6088,
I think not.
little black duck 6090,
I can’t see why not.
by Doyley on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:46 pm
Glen you are a swell and lover of Cameron, how sweet, answer this… Cameron can’t use the words ‘yes’ or ‘no’ when asked if he discussed BSkyB with Brooks. Did you or didn’t you, David? Simple easy question…tell me why, I am intrigued and you have admitted you are well versed in these matters.
by david on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:46 pm
Well that’s not hard is it.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:46 pm
Clegg: WTF am I doing here!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:46 pm
again not answering about discussions on the bid
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:46 pm
I agree UK politicians have an uncomfortably cozy relationship with News however Murdoch did say he had many meetings with Brown as well and always entered by the rear door. It appears not to be party specific.
by DavidWH on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:46 pm
The Finnigans
Then there is the one and only Rool Haka !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRiOmg3ZhJU&feature=related
by poroti on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:47 pm
Geeze, this is a whole lot better than the absolute crap we see in the house of reps every day.
Good balance between the boring dull american style and the absolute shambles poor harry has to put up with.
by paritybit on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:48 pm
I’m sure Murdoch and his execs were talking about anything but BSB.
BTW, I bought the Westgate Bridge today. Nice bloke gave me a great deal.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:48 pm
Cameron STILL hasn’t unqueiviocally said that he never discussed the B-Sky-B deal with anyone at News International, or indeed directly with the Murdochs.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:49 pm
‘Commons’, unlike ‘Representatives’, suggests a place for Glen.
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:49 pm
george
I think it’s a pretty inescapable conclusion that Cameron talked about the BSB bid with Brooks, possibly over sausages but probably not at a sleep-over.
by Diogenes on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:49 pm
Anyone like to discuss “proven” v “proved”? Later, much later?
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:50 pm
David WH Murdoch is not political per say – he is best described as an anarchist. Left and Right are just different shades of the same tools to manipulate for his own bottom line.
I suggest you find a quiet moment and read this:
http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?PHPSESSID=7cf8b000a9ab9ecf4db72b12d0baec74&topic=11879.msg141183#msg141183
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:51 pm
“They did it, too. So, there!”
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:51 pm
Clegg still not happy
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:51 pm
The Speaker rocks!
Harry should embark on a parliamentary-funded sabbatical.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:52 pm
House of the Dancing Microphones.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:53 pm
And with the obligatory “Gotcha!” at the end.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:53 pm
Is the Speaker an Indie or from a minor party?
by Diogenes on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:53 pm
just read ing
said to my oh about The pm saying about newtd he said it was on the abc.
and he seemed to know about the tweet we saw any one else see that on abc
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:53 pm
News Itn’l acts illegally and the Tory PM says it’s a police failure.
OMG.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:55 pm
Diog
I think the speaker becomes independent once selected by the house and has tenure, not having to recontest his seat.
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:55 pm
The speaker is a classic!
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:56 pm
Agree
by paritybit on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:56 pm
Today is the anniversary of the moon landing.
How’s that for ‘look over there!’ questions.
by confessions on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:56 pm
BK
He’s a lot more effective, and respected, than our Speakers.
by Diogenes on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:56 pm
Of course we are watching a minority government under massive pressure on a day of days for parliament. I am sure they could send you to sleep in a matter of moments on most sitting days.
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:56 pm
The Speaker:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bercow
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:56 pm
Rebecca Wade…
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:57 pm
He was a Conservative but when someone becomes speaker, by tradition, they resign from their party, and the major parties then agree not to run against them at the election.
Speaker Bercow’s wife is a Labour councilor and it was thought for a long time that he would defect from the Conservatives to Labour. Ultimately he didn’t do this, but an amazing thing happened that Bercow was elected Speaker towards the end of the Brown Goveernment (in a secrete ballot) with just 30 conservative votes. He was elected thanks to over 250 Labour votes.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:57 pm
I alluded earlier to a question from a Labour MP , who was in fact Tom Watson, that he had asked Cameron a year ago about his knowledge of Coulsen knowing that phone hacking took place while he was Editor of the News of the World and as at tonight he had no response..I have tracked down the letter and it is obvious now, why Cameron has not answered.
4 October 2010
Dear Mr Cameron,
NEWS OF THE WORLD PHONE HACKING SCANDAL
You will be aware of the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee’s Press Standards, Privacy and Libel report of February 2010 in which Mr Andy Coulson, your Communications Director, told MPs that he had no recollection of incidences where phone hacking took place whilst he was Editor of the News of the World.
New allegations made today to Channel 4’s Dispatches programme, by a former senior executive of News International, however, claim that Mr Coulson did in fact know about hacking, and that he listened to tapes of intercepted voicemail messages. These allegations are new, far reaching and warrant investigation.
The report to be broadcast on the Dispatches programme casts doubt on the accuracy of the oral evidence provided to the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee on 21 July 2009 by Mr Coulson in which he said: “I was, as you know, Editor of the News of the World for four years from January 2003 until January 2007. During that time I never condoned the use of `phone hacking and nor do I have any recollection of incidences where `phone hacking took place”.
Accordingly, I think it is necessary for you to make a statement in Parliament on this matter next week. If a government minister were to be the subject of similar allegations, they would be forced to stand down immediately while an investigation is carried out. We are now at the point where I firmly believe you should consider a similar course of action with regards to Mr Coulson’s conduct.
I am sure you would agree misleading a parliamentary committee of the House of Commons is a very serious matter, and therefore these allegations need to be investigated. Parliament and the public would expect nothing less from you.
I look forward to hearing from you, at the earliest opportunity, in response to the points that I have raised.
Yours sincerely
Tom Watson
Member of Parliament for West Bromwich East
by david on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:58 pm
Well isn’t this format good? Where it is just MPs asking questions to the PM, that’s it?
Then on other days they interrogate other ministers.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:59 pm
It’s an historic and prestigious position. Much different than here.
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:59 pm
hahah, great twitter account that one
by paritybit on Jul 20, 2011 at 9:59 pm
Opposition MP: PM, what about the Prostitution Bill?
PM: Pay it, dear boy, pay it.
by The Finnigans on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:01 pm
“since he cannot smell a rat” :lol”
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:02 pm
Clegg still not happy.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:02 pm
“I require brevity” Love the English language!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:03 pm
I’d say the speaker has just equated Mr William Cash to our Bob Katter.
by BK on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:03 pm
8.5/10
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:03 pm
Let’s be honest, the stain runs deep on both sides. It’s a mutual hand-cleansing exercise.
Roo would be chuckling, if he could be bothered watching.
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:03 pm
Yeah that was pretty funny.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:03 pm
Broadcast is a social medium? I think not.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:03 pm
No, I can’t.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:05 pm
The Two Ronnies?
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:05 pm
Clegg still sad
by victoria on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:06 pm
Laura Tingle?
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 10:06 pm