Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Nah, he wont lose enough
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 12:55 am
Cadel not pushing it???
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 12:57 am
Catching them !!!
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 12:58 am
Cadel will have to bite Alberto’s bum for 3 days.
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2011 at 12:58 am
HAHAHAHAHAHA well done Cadel
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 12:58 am
Everybody except Voeckler gets the same time
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 12:59 am
No! great stuff!
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2011 at 12:59 am
Sucked in Contador you drug cheating bastard
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 12:59 am
“JG could get rid of it”
You mean by increasing a federal government tax in order to cover the revenue for stamp duty. If you are going to make such proposals, at least nominate which tax you suggest should be increased, or which other spending should be cut. Oh, you may also wish to explain how to convince voters that that is a good thing.
You should also nominate what taxes you’ll increase to pay for the Colin Barnett like ‘the federal government handing money to the states for light rail is a better way to cut carbon emissions than a price on carbon pollution’ idea too.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 12:59 am
Contador would have used a lot more petrol than Evans on that descent, all for absolutely nothing
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:01 am
Dario,
Cadel had a team mate with him until near the end. Hinchcappe?
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:01 am
Top Job Cadel!
by paritybit on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:01 am
EB will be a biggie for Norway.
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:02 am
GC standings after stage 17:
Voeckler
Cadel +1m 18s
Frank +1m 22s
Andy +2m 36s
Sanchez +2m 59s
Contador +3m 15s
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:04 am
About 2am WA Time:
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:05 am
No I think it was Santaromita
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:05 am
That last catch was magic!
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:07 am
No one will pick up 60 seconds on the time trial on Cadel Evans.
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:09 am
…correction, I don’t think he had a teammate right at the end on the descent, it was probably a rider from the other team in red
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:10 am
Of the GC contenders, no that’s pretty unlikely but you just never know. It could be a wet day, or could stack it. Can only cross fingers.
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:11 am
Dario, over the top. After that, each for himself. You get no protection from a team mate.
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:11 am
Some old biddy on Delroy DEFENDING Murdoch.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:12 am
Dario,
Cadel v Alberto.
The others are merely players upon the stage …
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:13 am
Frank does not time trial. Andy is too far behind.
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:14 am
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/07/satyajit-das-europe%E2%80%99s-debt-crisis-refuses-to-die.html
Our problems are trifling things compared with those in Europe…
by briefly on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:14 am
Sanchez and Cuneo?
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:15 am
I have a feeling Cadel will be in yellow at the end of tomorrow
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:16 am
It might be his Mum Frank.
by grey on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:16 am
Sanchez is a shocking time trialler. Cunego I don’t know about, but haven’t heard him referred to much about being a serious contender.
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:17 am
Have a look at Spain; their debt is nearly US$3 trillion.
Gillard made a mistake yesterday citing Spain as an example of a country that has embraced renewable energy. That may be true, but they have spent so much money on subsidies that they have achieved it by wrecking their economy and creating 20% unemployment.
It was a mistake as bad as Abbott saying that we should’ve followed New Zealand’s lead during the GFC (they were stuck in recession for 5 quarters).
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:17 am
Love the Tour, Cadel will win, but isn’t this a political blog?
by Tobe on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:18 am
Oh gawd, kiss of death from all the commentators tipping Cadel to win it
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:18 am
At this time of night there isn’t exactly much else going on
by Dario on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:19 am
LOL Allan! In parliament he is both: a type of support frame and a dickhead. I stirred up a bit of a nest a while back by referring to him as “charismatic”. Quite a few wondered if I’d lost my marbles. I was just trying to be funny.
Though I did admit to softening to him a bit at QT. He wanders up to the box, bright-eyed and smiling hopefully. Every Minister hopes he/she will get the question because it is a guaranteed opportunity for a slapdown, and then he walks back in good grace to his spot.
What I do like is that he never looks sulky or angry about the put-downs.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:21 am
Don’t know about tomorrow. The team is below the commentators’ chat and they are conserving their energies. Contador is a bit bruised and is not sustaining forward when he should. The Schleck brothers have fatal weaknesses. Frank can’t keep up in the time trial. Andy is 98% when 99% is needed.
Replay now.
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:23 am
The punters are sore, ShowsOn. If JG can show she gets it and can do some concrete things to help soothe the pain in their hip pockets, she has a chance to turn things around. It is convenient to blame the meejia for all the problems. It would be so much better to do things than just wait to get clobbered by Abbott.
The Rudd/Gillard government has to be one of the least-capable and most accident-prone in memory. But I still hope they can rise above their own demonstrable ineptitude and do good things before it’s too late.
I would like to think they can do things to arrest and reverse the decline in their standing. They should spare no effort to get back into the contest…..even if the likes of you are content to be consumed in the greatest wipe-out since Labor first formed.
On light rail, you should listen to Peter Newman at Curtin University. He has a lot of good things to say about the construction and funding of light rail and the social and environmental benefits that accrue to cities that invest in them. They are patently smart ways to improve cities. I don’t know what Colin Barnett thinks, but Peter Newman is a notable transport and environmental economist. You should look him up.
by briefly on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:28 am
briefly,
What poppycock, the Rudd/Gillard government have traversed the biggest global downturn in 70 years and left Australians (the punters… and you) judging them as if nothing has happened.
They have been very competent.
by Tobe on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:38 am
Tobe, they get a lot of credit from me for the response to the GFC. But undeniably they have also fouled up in many other respects. It is painful to acknowledge, but unless they recognise their failings – and be content to blame others for their predicament – they will not improve their chances. That would be a matter of great regret, because they can do much much better. FFS, they have to try…..to observe, to think, to be honest with themselves, to respond…..and if they do not try, they will not be given another chance by the voters, that much is for sure.
by briefly on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:47 am
Exactly, as if. Doesn’t say who commissioned the poll or how questions were worded. Poll might be OK (don’t know Reach), but would like to know those other bits. In any case Newspoll and all the others will say the same more or less at present.
The aim is not to win the polls battle at this point. It is to get the whole thing started rather than moaning about it.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:47 am
Porter Bibb on Lateline re Murdoch:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2011/s3274179.htm
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:49 am
briefly,
I will be happy with the ALP if and when the ETS legislation is passed. If they can’t do that, then I will accept they have failed.
I do not accept your abstract “failures”… you will have to name them.
by Tobe on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:55 am
A really good question. I’d have to say no. The odd individual like Gittins and Mega. But overall … you’d be perfectly justified in thinking there wasn’t ANY policy to analyze. Most people probably know that Gillard’s got a carbon tax and it’s unnecessary and is being brought in just to annoy us and will have no effect anyway.
And of course Abbott hasn’t got anything anyway. So the only game is political theatre sports.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 21, 2011 at 1:55 am
And the Limited News Turd polishing continues:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/gillard-challenged-over-stance-on-standards/story-fn9eci82-1226098601063
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 21, 2011 at 2:36 am
Did the Queen warn Cameron about Murdoch’s Coulson for No 10 ?
Seems like it !…but he ignored her advice.
Harold Wilson in his bio said she always have sound advice,and he never found her advice to be wrong on matters of policy
Every Thursday the PM visit the Palace for a chat and a cup of tea…I’d like to be a fly on the wall there tomorrow
http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.com/2011/07/chris-bryant-queen-warned-cameron-about.html
by deblonay on Jul 21, 2011 at 2:43 am
Morning PBers – in light of LimitedNoos and the police in the UK, just had a thought reading this
Was there a concerted effort to get rid of Nixon because she wasn’t interested in any closeness between the media and the police. I can’t remember how she related to the press but, as far as I remember, didn’t the bloke who followed her hit a snag with the media?
by BH on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:31 am
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
I want Cadel to be wearing the Yellow by now!!!!! Not tomorrow #tourdefrance
45 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:32 am
PAAPTSEF – loved that one!
by BH on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:34 am
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
#DavidCameron said “i never had a slumber party with #Bekky or seen her in pyjama” what about in her knicker? #hackgate
10 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:43 am
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
@
@BreakfastNews @latrioli what about some analysis on Tony Abbott’s flipflops of the last few days #theirABC
6 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:45 am
Good morning, Bludgers.
A bright start to the day Rebekah Brooks “Friday” (Rebecca Black Parody) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5z4CJRFBKY now well and truly viral.
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:53 am