Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Gorgeous Dunny @ 6335
Of course I accept she’s the Prime Minister – I just think that she’s a really bad one. And if she has issues with people accepting her as Prime Minister she only has herself to blame. She’s the one who knifed the elected and liked Prime Minister and then declared she wouldn’t live in the lodge because she wasn’t the real Prime Minister until she won an election. And then she only sort of won the election – a hung parliament isn’t much of a mandate – one country bumpkin voting the other way and she wouldn’t be PM at all.
by Two Piece Feed on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:01 am
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
Murdoch’s BSkyB bid downfall and the phone hacking scandal youtube.com/watch?v=kBxv7Y…
31 seconds ago
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBxv7YSJRI8
by The Finnigans on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:05 am
Why does Hartigan think that news Australia is so pure and unaffected?
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/hacking-affair-puts-murdochs-plans-for-an-orderly-succession-in-doubt-20110720-1hou0.html#ixzz1SgHM4vh4
From all accounts the top bods were blissfully unaware of what was happening whereas it took an outsider five minutes to find out things smelt very bad.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/efforts-to-limit-scandal-to-britain-ease-fears-for-news-corp-in-us-20110720-1hozt.html#ixzz1SgICFgyJ
Why would news know if anything wrong was happening in USA when they had no clue it was happening in UK?
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/push-for-tougher-privacy-laws-20110720-1hp06.html#ixzz1SgIZJ4b1
Lack of evidence of wrongdoing in Australia, what is Hartigan saying, there is no evidence, there is no evidence that has been found (yet?) or he is unaware of any evidence?
As for culture of the organisation it can sometimes give a clue as to its principles from the way it treats and respects individuals. The so called outing of grog and insinuation he used govt time and sick leave for his blog, the publishing of the fake nude photos of Hanson despite her protests, the photo shopped nude photo of our Prime Minister on their main web page all show a lack of respect fo the individual and hints of a culture of untouchable and unfettered.
by castle on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:05 am
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
It is amazing the Murdochs didnt know #NewsCorpse still paying for the legal bills of the hackers when fronted the Parliament #hackgate
6 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:11 am
Iemma makes so much sense that his view will definitely be ignored in here
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/iemma-predicts-carbon-calamity/story-fn59niix-1226098657315
Mr Iemma says the carbon tax that forms federal Labor’s platform for re-election in 2013 is environmentally marginal, economically costly and likely to lead Labor to a historic electoral train wreck.
“One thing is sure — it won’t change the world, but it could change the government,” Mr Iemma told The Australian.
Mr Iemma accused the Gillard government of betraying the Hawke-Keating legacy of economic reform, instead embracing the environmental policies of the Greens’ agenda.
“We embraced economic growth, and the benefits of economic growth, in the Hawke-Keating era, but we’re fighting this battle on the Greens’ turf, not our turf. Bob Brown wants to replace the Labor Party as a major party.”
Mr Iemma accepted the science of climate change. “Yes, we should take action, but we should not get so far out in front that we injure ourselves,” he said.
He rejected the government’s view that Australia’s carbon tax was similar in scope to actions being taken by other countries.
“Every day there are reports of growth and development in China, its growth in emissions will far outstrip our total emissions,” Mr Iemma said.
“The carbon tax at best reduces the rate of increase of emissions slightly.”
Mr Iemma said the Greens had wielded excessive influence on the government’s policies, pointing to the $10 billion Clean Energy Fund, which excludes carbon capture and storage.
“We ought to be fighting the Greens on the Left with Labor environmental policies and Labor economic policies, not on the Greens’ terms. We’ve adopted a policy which is part of the Greens’ agenda.
“And the Greens’ agenda is anti-growth and anti-investment. Lower growth and lower investment lead to lower incomes and fewer jobs.”
Mr Iemma said the sidelining of federal Resources Minister Martin Ferguson was “quite disgraceful”.
“We should always be standing shoulder to shoulder with steelworkers and miners and factory workers before we stand shoulder to shoulder with the likes of Bob Brown and Christine Milne,” he added. “One of the reasons previously rusted-on Labor voters are parking themselves somewhere else is that we’ve confused our identity.”
by dovif on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:11 am
WTF. They have been saying about China in the last 10 years. Remember when GFC happened, China will collapse because USA economy tanked and USA is China’s biggest market.
China has de-coupled itself from USA and still growing at 9.7%. All quite on the western front now.
China’s inflation problem is chicken shit compares to USA and Eurozone deficit/debts.
David Cameron was in Africa just recently, he made a comment, wtte, that he didnt realise the extend of China’s pnetration in Africa. China is basically financing the whole of Africa at the moment in terms of investment, resource development and infra-structure buildings.
If China is FARQ, then the whole world is FARQ.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasurys-warning-on-china-as-imf-fears-eurozone-debt-crisis-will-infect-global-economy/story-fn59niix-1226098655754
by The Finnigans on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:21 am
Nyaah, King Harry! Less the mud, your longbow-men and We few, we happy few, we band of brothers; With this acknowledgement, that God fought for us, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewbuPY3uGQ4 than that the latest Paris must have fashion in shining armour meant those Frenchie aristos were grossly overdressed!
Heavy armour would have exhausted the French at Agincourt, say scientists Tests involving volunteers running on a treadmill in medieval armour suggest the French were too knackered to fight
Over the last couple of decades, I’ve enjoyed Battle Detectives and others adding to our knowledge of my fave battle – even the battle rolls turned up as Brits digitalised their humungous archives – but this is too, too much information. I perfer my legends intact!
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:26 am
Good morning Bludgers.
Wow!! Look at this for a blast from the Irish PM.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-21/irish-pm–scathing-attack-on-vatican/2803762
by BK on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:28 am
Author of the Australian’s piece on Iemma – Sheridan. Enough said.
by ajm on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:28 am
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:32 am
Re Murdoch. I wonder about the Royal Family in all of this. Wouldn’t think they would be too impressed. Do they have any influence or are they just adornments to Br. society?
by RNM1953 on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:52 am
Morning
I thought the debate in the UK house of Commons was a cracker last night. The speaker was brilliant. Puts our QT to shame.
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:01 am
As usual, a brilliant op-ed from Barry Jones. Must read.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/intelligent-discussion-all-but-extinct-20110720-1hos2.html
by BK on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:04 am
I agree Victoria @6411.
Can anyone explain the story behind the standing up by the opposition backbenchers as the PM starts his answer and the similar ritual by govt MPs?
Surely not just to get the call?
by gough1 on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:05 am
gough1
I have heard that it is to get the call, but not sure.
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:07 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/jul/20/cameron-media-regulation-leveson-inquiry-bbc
ah whats this then
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:08 am
BK
Thanks for linking Barry Jones. I am starting to feel that thr govt has lost the debate on climate policy. We are behaving like a nation of flat earthers being led by the Tea party. I am a little disheartened
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:09 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jul/20/james-rupert-murdoch-full-transcript
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:11 am
Good morning all.
The editorial in today’s OO simply must be read to be believed.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/providing-the-answers-is-hard-without-questions/story-e6frg71x-1226098606782
That they can publish this kind of stuff with a straight face is amazing.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:12 am
AN ARTICLE by The Age’s Michael Gordon titled ‘He says She says’ last week, included a disturbing paragraph in which he quoted Tony Abbott, in South Dandenong, answering a question about how CO2 emissions are calculated: ”It’s actually pretty hard to do this because carbon dioxide is invisible and it’s weightless (my emphasis) and you can’t smell it.”
This striking observation probably reflects his understanding. If carbon dioxide is invisible, odourless and weightless, in a world outside measurement or analysis, then attempting to control or limit it is pointless.
He appears to take a mediaeval scholastic view of how the universe works. He has forgotten that legislation setting strict standards for emission accounting was passed under the Howard government, in which he was a senior minister.
Advertisement: Story continues below Carbon dioxide, a compound of carbon and oxygen, is not weightless. The burning of a tonne of coal produces 3.67 tonnes of carbon dioxide – easy to measure but hard to control, and harder to get users to take responsibility for downstream effects.
Tony Abbott’s approach to the carbon tax debate is illustrative of a general collapse in the quality of rational discourse. The proposed carbon tax, a very complex issue, is being attacked with ruthless simplicity, ”Stop a toxic tax, based on a lie.” Is there a second sentence in this argument? Has the word ”because” fallen out of the political vocabulary?
He simply does not understand the science, but is not alone in that. There is also a sustained attack on scientific method, scientists themselves and the rational evaluation of evidence. Tony Abbott claims to be more confident of the judgment of voters at large on climate change than scientists or economists. The Abbott phenomenon is not isolated.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/intelligent-discussion-all-but-extinct-20110720-1hos2.html#ixzz1SgbopPKP
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:13 am
Peter Anderson from ACCI on ABC24. What an a pissweak Abbott apologist!
by BK on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:16 am
i take another approach more and more people and Barry Jones very well respected by older people, are having articles in the fairfax paper, i know they are far and few between but three months ago there was nothing,
the ony person to despair at is abbott for is pretence of ignorance or doing it to confuse people
grade 7 science students would read that nonsense about his knowledge and roll their eyes.
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:16 am
confessions
Are you surprised? The hypocrisy is breathtaking
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:16 am
[Posted Thursday, July 21, 2011 at 8:09 am | Permalink
BK
Thanks for linking Barry Jones. I am starting to feel that thr govt has lost the debate on climate policy. We are behaving like a nation of flat earthers being led by the Tea party. I am a little disheartened
also note the dispair on joe hockey face and the body language what ever abbott was raving on about joe was not happy
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:20 am
6423 my say
Posted Thursday, July 21, 2011 at 8:20 am | Permalink
also note the dispair on joe hockey face and the body language what ever abbott was raving on about joe was not happy
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:21 am
i will take your word for it, no clicks for them
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:22 am
BK:
Thanks for the link to Jones. I met him once at a scientific debate for charity and was impressed by his knowledge of even the most obscure things. The man just knows stuff and he isn’t lofty or patronising with it like some highly intelligent people can be.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:22 am
It is. But I spent some time last night trying to work out whether it was for the next question or the following one, and whether the Speaker was “queuing” those who, most often, jumped to their feet – a not unusual practice in major fora (AGM’s, TU councils, earlier parliamentary days before QT questions were organised by Party meetings).
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:23 am
The poetry of Frank Calabrese prose goes mainstream.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2803346.html
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:23 am
Perhaps he should have a word with his partyroom, given the disgraceful behaviour of the opps in QT.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:24 am
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/rupert_murdoch/index.html
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:27 am
vic,
The Government is actually winning the debate.
1. The legislation will go through.
2. The package will commence on July 1 next year.
3. The election is in 2013.
Nothing has changed.
Abbott is still syaing there will be an electiion.
Abbott saying someone from the ALP will defect or overthrow Gillard.
Abbott and co powerless to stop any legilation passing the Parliament.
real power is about who is in control. It ain’t Abbott.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:29 am
my say
are you referring to a recent press conference with Abbott and Hockey
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:32 am
OPT@6427
Thanks for the clarification
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:33 am
GG
In that respect you are correct. But the media will again focus on the next round of polling. Should the polls go further south next week, we all know what the meme is going to be
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:36 am
Barrie Cassidy thinks the PM should stop talking about the carbon price because it’s becomming boring.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-21/cassidy-gillards-counterproductive-carbon-tax-conversation/2803232
Interesting that nobody found it boring when the opposition was visiting every workplace in the country to tell people how bad pricing carbon emissions would be. But now the PM wants to talk about the details in the govt’s policy, she has to shut up because the media are bored and in the 2 weeks since the announcement the polls haven’t improved, so therefore it isn’t working.
We are very poorly served by our media in this country.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:38 am
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:39 am
I assume the Speaker gets some help forming the order of speakers.
Fascinating viewing and hard to believe our system is so penurious by comparison
by shellbell on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:39 am
confessions
Dont want to sound like a party pooper, but the debate in this country has descended into farce.
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:41 am
Victoria
So you know what is coming with the polls so dont worry about them.I am not totally convinced that these polls are not being manipulated but I know if they were turning, the meme being spouted by all and sundry wouldnt work,hence my doubts about the polling.
by canasta76 on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:43 am
Confessions: that is the understatement of the century
by Danny Lewis on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:43 am
One noticeable difference with the HoC is that when Speaker Bercow demands order in the chamber, the opposition abide by his wishes. Unlike here where the current opposition just don’t respect the authority of Speaker Jenkins and generally behave like kindergarten children.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:44 am
Well, we do know that News Limited “owns” Newspoll
by Danny Lewis on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:44 am
victoria:
I have faith that things will improve. Slowly but surely.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:46 am
canasta76
I know what is coming with the polls. The media will then spend the whole week speculating about the leadership, ignoring all else. What hope does this country have for an informed debate
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:47 am
confessions
Unless the govt get some bi partisan support on the climate policy, such as Turnbull, Labor will not convince the majority of the electorate
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:49 am
Methinks Sophie is the last person who should be calling people duds.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:51 am
shellbell
I am with you I was really impressed with the speed of it all. Everyone got a say and it was great watching.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:52 am
Well,Well,Well
Now we have Iemma the cockroach coming out of the woodwork and who writes the story,that bastion of stupidity Sheridan.I am really surprised that either one of them would have the intelligence to tie there own shoe laces.Really who in their right mind would listen to Iemma on anything ,when after seeing the writing on the wall over the electricity privatisation still went ahead and in the process pretty much destroyed the NSW Labor party.Listen to advice from this wanker,I dont think so
by canasta76 on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:53 am
canast
i would say that the ess, poll this week was may be the only one we should look at,
from what i understand set up a couple of years ago, and new at that, i joined their list of people wanting to take part.
its a good idea to join at least we know our names are somewhere in the system
and i dont mind taking part in other surveys they send from time to time
its easy just write to ess. and they send you the link and a form to fill in from that link
i often wonder what labors internal polling shows them
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:53 am