Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
does any one know where sk is
there was sickness in the family perhaps thats why she is not here miss her tweets.
hi william, you didnt get crabby with sk tweets, did you,
she helped democracy so so much,
wish others would learn to tweet
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:56 am
Dovif: Morris Iemma is a thoroughly decent man, who like Kevin Rudd, was politically assassinated by the Sussex St Mafia and the factional hacks.
by evan14 on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:57 am
of course not. till the greedy interested uneducated get the extra money in their pockets.
sorry to be cynical, but at this point i dont really care about the rest of the population.
when it gets through the HOR and it will, then the dust will settle,
when you are doing the right and good thing who cares.
its a bit like the P and F at school s the committee decide to build a new science block the others want a playing field, the science block is built and used and
6 months later its forgotten.
egl flood Levey NBN plain packaging, ect.,
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:59 am
Yes, it’s a ridiculous, self-serving pile of hogwash built on a straw man (the “question” is completely straightforward and out there in the public domain). However, it should be noted that for all its obvious bias, the Oz is unlikely to be in the hacking game. IMO, what they’re trying to do is this: they’re trying to make everyone think that News Ltd is The Australian, and are working very hard to show that that The Oz isn’t involved, and therefore New Ltd doesn’t have a case to answer in Australia. The tabloid rags seem to be silent on this issue (although I could be wrong there – guess how much I read them!).
It’s not a bad ploy, but I don’t think it will fool the people that it needs to.
by autocrat on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:59 am
interested…/ uninterested
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:00 am
i am at lost to know why any one reads the news ltd we closed off our home delivery some time ago, and i put my foot down about it even being bought in to the home by oh
he bought it i binned it,.
he has stopped buying it
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:01 am
autocrat
What about the terrorism police raids here in Victoria, that were printed in the OZ as they were taking place. Chief Commissioner Overland was very critical of the OZ, and the Herald Sun conducted a concerted campaign until Overland resigned. Me smells a big fat rat here alone
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:02 am
Also what about the Godwin Grech affair?
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:03 am
castle:
An interesting observation.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:04 am
whats the shakespere play that talks about people talking about themselves
i was trying to find the play i bet oz poll knows it,
well out in the cold so so cold this winter, very very unusual, these are the type of winters we had when i was a child.
yes may was the warmest on record 25 degrees a couple of day, now the poor rhododendrons thought it was spring and flowered, now they are frost bitten and i wonder will they recover to flower in oct. when they should of
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:04 am
Yes Victoria, forgot about that one (not a very big topic in Sydney). Still, that’s probably more about abusing their sources (and exhibiting extremely poor judgement and ethics) than paying for information to be sourced illegally.
Nonetheless, I think their ploy is to stand behind The Oz and hope nobody notices what goes on in their rags.
by autocrat on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:05 am
James Schloeffel in The Age gets it:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/bringing-politics-to-reality-tv-heres-how-it-could-be-played-20110720-1hos3.html#ixzz1SgoFN2rU
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:05 am
victoria:
Someone suggested looking back at News ltd coverage after the Bali bombings, in the wake of revelations News in the UK had hacked victims’ phones after the London bombings.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:05 am
autocrat
It was a police source who leaked the terrorism raid to the Oz. Was this police source paid?
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:06 am
confessions
Yes, that would be a good place to start.
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:07 am
You’re kidding?
Where do they get all their “anonymous Labor insider” stuff?
Godwin Grech Affair anyone? Who was paying him? And in what form were those payments made?
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:08 am
The policy was announced of 10 July. Today’s 21 July – 11 days. Parliament resumes mid-August. Implementation starts 1 July 2012.
Reportage in online papers & on TV programmes (inc news) has widened, and is more critical (in the evaluative sense) and reflective of the international background – NZ, UK, US, Euro, China.
The actually policy has taken the sting out of many of Abbott’s scare-campaign claims; he’s already tying himself in knots, and being called out for it by the same media. Everyone, including Abbott & his shockjock cheersquad, know the legislation will be enacted and the next election will be held Spring 2013.
The best Abbott, Shockjocks and supporters can hope for is that they destroy Gillard; but, as she has good face-to-face rapport with the general public, they might not succeed in that either. Kev’s health problems may undercut the Rudd v Gillard sideshow, and …
The man at the PM’s side, talking sense in facts, figures and a rational voice is the last person the Opposition, as well as the coalition of Chamber of Commerce, conservative “think tanks”, “Bring back Workchoices”, Big Mining Big etc bankrolling Abbott’s lot, want to see as Gillard’s replacement – Greg Combet.
We’ll know whether the government has lost the climate policy debate when Antony Green (or another member of TV channel panels) call the result of the next election.
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:08 am
Speaking of which, If in fact 9/11 victims phones were hacked, Murdoch is stuffed
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:08 am
Victoria
Cassidy has let “celebrity” go to his head so that he doesnt give a damn about the Ausralian people as long as his lord and masters at the ABC see him sticking with their and murdochs meme.He Cassidy hasnt had an originaL THOUGHT IN HIS HEAD FOR YEARS .Does it not make you think if the carbon argument is lost then why is the majority of the media still carrying on about it including Cassidy and the answer is all things being equal it will be legislated,it will come in July next year and the benefits will flow to the people that most need it,let the polls fall as they may because they are only being done repeatedly like this to try to keep the Government on the back foot.
by canasta76 on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:11 am
OPT
Your observations are correct. I am viewing it through the prism of our pathetic media. If the opinion polls worsen, the narrative will be about thr failure of the govt and this policy. The media has already spent this week speculating about the leadership. Imagine what they will do next week, if the polls worsen. We are poorly served by our media, and to date, the woes of News have not given them any pause.
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:11 am
canasta76
I have lost all respect for Barrie Cassidy. He does nor have an originao thought in his brain. He is a hack like all the rest
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:13 am
“original”
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:13 am
And bang on cue comes Cassidy’s article saying the PM should stop talking about the CT because it’s boring.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:13 am
confessions
cassidy is now echoing Grattan. She said this yesterday
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:14 am
Cassidy and Grattan are basically saying that if the PM continues to talk about the carbon tax, the less popular she and her govt become
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:18 am
victoria:
It’s a big call after only 11 days.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:19 am
With Abbott behaving in the irresponsible he is perhaps it should be
Who wants to RUIN the country
by Darn on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:22 am
Darn
Good one. i like it!!
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:27 am
Tony Abbott talking up Tasmania as only he can
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/tas-a-vision-of-our-gloomy-future-abbott-20110721-1hpn8.html
by madcyril on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:29 am
Btw. I heard on radio this morning that fruit and veg will get cheaper in next few months. New crops will bring down prices. Of course, the floods and unseasonal cold weather has created huge price fluctuations. People may get a reprieve on cost of living pressures soon enough
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:29 am
Heard on the ABC that the UN Security council refused to accept that global warming might cause a security threat.
That bears out my belief that waiting for the whole world to agree before acting on AGW is just an excuse for doing nothing.
by lizzie on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:31 am
Media, here, is very defensive and is trying to draw a big line in the sand.
That seems to go right across the board including Fairfax and Aunty rep’s like Faine are fiercely screaming about a threat to freedom of the press.
The Hartigan “it couldn’t happen here” line is being bought wholesale and spruiked by their ABC retail.
by joe2 on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:34 am
What a joke
The wingnutt abbott not happy with talking down Australias economy he now wants to ruin Tasmania .Is this what is called loyalty and pride in ones country,I dont think so ,smells to me a little like sedition.
by canasta76 on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:34 am
It seems the individual who threw the pie at Rupet Murdoch in the parliamentary sitting was a British Labor Party member, John May-Bowles, who is also a commedian.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/comedian-charged-over-murdoch-foam-attack-20110720-1ho6k.html
How do such egotistical idiots survive in political parties? This guy may have evoked sympathy for Rupert Murdoch, disrupted the chain of questioning while he was already rattled, and taken attention away from Murdoch’s obfuscation, while conveniently grabbing attention for himself. Who let him in the room? He has done the UK Labor party about as much good as the fake pamphlets group at Lindsay did the Liberals.
by Socrates on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:39 am
Thats right.
If the PM stops talking about it will be *Labor has failed to sell* its CP policy.
Whatever the PM does will be wrong.
“When you are going through hell, keep going, don’t stop”
Get the laws passed and stuff what the media or abbott says or does.
by dave on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:39 am
the reason a lot of dont watch the insiders is becauce its boring,.
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:43 am
More grief for NewsCorp Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News ran ‘black ops’ department, former executive claims Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News television channel had a “black ops” department that may have illegally hacked private telephone records, a former executive for the station has alleged.
Welcome to Fox News’ psychological working conditions:
Despite that, the article ends with this Fox news disclaimer:
NewsLtd is, of course, issuing the same disclaimers; yet there are many questionable Australian incidents which could have resulted from the same practices NewsIntel used in UK – practices which may also have been used in the USA.
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:44 am
Hartigan is not someone to be believed as shown by the Storm affair amongst others.If as he says nothing is happening then why is he so intent on trying to stop debate or inquiry into this.When you have nothing to hide then whats the problem this goes for Scott too.As a matter of fact i believe Scott should either resign or be sacked as he has not stuck to the ABCs charter and looks to have been involved in the tender process for the Australia network.
by canasta76 on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:44 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/business/media/for-news-corporation-troubles-that-money-cant-dispel.html?pagewanted=1&ref=rupertmurdoch
News Corp settled that case by simply buying the company, despite it not being profitable. What else has News Corp been up to, and if it can happen elsewhere, why not Australia?
Bring on a media inquiry!
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:48 am
Victoria
I lost respect for Cassidy with his relentless attacks on Rudd which were far more destructive than any more recently on Gillard (although these are still pretty bad). I assumed he had been given political orders by the ABC board rather than blaming Cassidy personally.
Most importantly I lost respect for him as a human being, when following the Rudd removal he continued to lead the “lets kick him in the head” crowd. It was amongst the most despicable things I have seen.
by daretotread on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:50 am
Barry Jones nails the idiot
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/intelligent-discussion-all-but-extinct-20110720-1hos2.html#ixzz1SgnKAzcM
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:53 am
i wouldnt be surprised if the foresty thing is thie reason abbott and his lot are doing this,
lets see,
tasmania is on the brink of amazing new tourist opportunities.
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:54 am
An interesting take on the battle with change and populism
Worth reading the whole piece to get a real social concern for what is happening. Oddly enough and although it’s not brilliantly articulated, PM Gillard is on the right track in emphasising the value of work in life. It helps bridge the gap between the inner-city ‘elites’ and the seemingly alienated older working classes. And the necessary change is more likely to be sold by the rewards in recognition than by the science.
It does represent a sad state, as the Barry Jones piece cited does, that we can’t have an intelligent discussion on what is at stake, but tea party nonsense steals all the oxygen. Concentrating on improving the quality of people’s lives (including job security), their value in it and our strengths for the future is maybe the only way to fight off the anger in the immediate future.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/to-stay-in-power-labor-must-give-it-back-to-generation-vexed-20110720-1hov9.html#ixzz1Sh1FKbCe
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:54 am
any one notice the Uk having extending their enquiry to the BBC
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:54 am
ring sen. conroys office in canberra with any thought you have
by my say on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:55 am
Rightly or wrongly, the way that Labor plans to sell (is selling) the CT is as an economic policy not an environmental policy. The information packages are all about compensation and rebates for pensioners etc. (Yes I have seen them).
by daretotread on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:56 am
In particular Annabel Crabb.
If ever there was someone lining herself up for a job with News Ltd. it is the vacuuous Annabel, the giggling, gossiping schoolgurl who never grew up and thinks everyone she knows is just fab.
The “Cut & Paste” page of the OO would be about her style. You don’t have to check facts, or analyse them, just juxtapose a couple of superficially contradictory utterances and smirk at them. Annabel does “smirk” really well. Everything’s a joke to her. There’s a funny, zany side to everything in Crabb World.
Unless, of course the utterer of the fatuous words is Tony Abbott (about whom, remember, she wrote a gushing, crush piece) and then his every syllable will be treated as a pearl of wisdom. It doesn’t matter if each statement confounds the previous one, and the next, Annabel manages to find a way to rationalize them all as perfectly consistent, with some kind of “thinking girl” logic that puts any blame for misinterpretation squarely on the reader.
I mean, how could a press release from the Coal Industry Association be the product of hacking? Therefore no-one at News Local hacks. QED.“9/10 for spelling and neatness, Annabel, though could do with some more developed argument.”
Annabel, skirt hitched up to above her knees, hair all fluffed out to make her head seem bigger, and in charge of the bling page of the student newspaper, is down at the bus stop after school. She’s fallen head over heels in love from afar with the handsome Head Boy from the GPS college next door. Does he know she’s there? If he doesn’t, she can just squeal a little louder and maybe he’ll hear her. Oh, he’s so dreamy. What she’d give for just one look…
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:59 am
Didn’t he just steal that from Sheehan’s column the other day?
BB: yes, I’m serious. Leaking from public servants is pretty much standard, and there’s no reason to believe that there were payments to Grech, were there? Same with their “anonymous” politicians of all colours – they leak in order to advance their own political prospects, almost always against people who are supposed to be on the same side.
There’s nothing unusual about either situation, it’s where journalists get most of their information, esp. political journalists.
The police leak that Victoria brings up is a different matter, and I agree that it should be investigated.
by autocrat on Jul 21, 2011 at 9:59 am
daretotread
Cassidy did enjoy kicking a man while he was down. Cassidy is a hypocrite. On 774 radio, he modifies his tone to suit a more pro Labor stance. Then on his program he sticks the boot in.
by victoria on Jul 21, 2011 at 10:01 am
If News Corp hacked into Floorgraphics computer system, then isn’t it feasible for News Corp to have hacked into the CRU system, ie Climategate?
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 10:05 am