Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Thank you, Drake.
Seemed appropriate, somehow.
by smithe on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:40 pm
Now that News has been humiliated into stopping paying hush money in the form of legal fees to the convicted criminal Mulcaire, he sounds like he might start singing like a birdie. I’m sure they will find another way to pay him off to avoid this.
by Diogenes on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:40 pm
Mulcare should take the money and then give a competing paper a front page story saying that he was bribed to stay silent, and then just talk anyway.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:42 pm
Somebody was telling me that a former News Corp journalist employee who had been involved in phone hacking was found dead in his appartment.
Is that true?
If it is, SHEEZUS we are dealing with the mafia here! They own cops and politicians
by Centre on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:42 pm
I don’t believe anything Denis Jensen says.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:42 pm
Evan – its evident that you’re not immune to propaganda
by hairy nose on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:43 pm
Centre
I think you’re referring to the whistleblower, who probably died of natural causes i.e. liver failure. He was an alcoholic – a sad man.
by lizzie on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:44 pm
Would it be so hard for the person hosting Capital Hill to ask Denis Jensen WHY the Coalition is proposing to cut carbon emissions by 5% on 2000 levels by 2020 if global warming isn’t real?
You’d think that would be question 1.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:44 pm
A former notw journalist was found dead, but people do die. Police have said there were no suspicious circumstances.
by ruawake on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:45 pm
Good post hairy nose @ 6993. Spot on!
by Centre on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:45 pm
Nobody in the govt has done this.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:46 pm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jul/19/news-world-whistleblower-post-mortem
He was the whisleblower that said phone hacking was SOP.
It is suspected he committed suicide.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:48 pm
Interesting analysis.
I can’t think of anyone in public life who comes within a bull’s roar of the PM.
She’s articulate, intelligent and her grasp of policy detail is without peer.
Better the media dumb up than have her dumb down.
by charlton on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:50 pm
Um yeah, because he committed suicide.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:51 pm
Lizzie I agree with you. Julia is an excellent communicator.
So that journalist was a whistleblower – and he died of natural causes?
Yeah Poppycock!
Beautiful convenient probability of an event
They should pull the other one, it plays twinkle twinkle little star
by Centre on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:51 pm
Daretotread @ 6992,
No need to apologise for your perceptions
I’m not “gooey” over the PM at all. I just happen to like what I see.
I can take your point about her talking slowly may (or may not) give out the wrong vibes, but for me, I just see this as her way of emphasing the point she is making. Also, I happen to be a person who is inclined to like a person for the good qualities I may admire in that person, despite the flaws I see there as well. (I hope this explanation is clearer than mud
As for the Christine Nixon book launch – I cannot, for the life of me, see any reason why the PM should not do the gig. Maybe Christine Nixon is a friend of hers?
by janice2 on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:52 pm
So how old was this whistleblower?
by Centre on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:52 pm
Cuppa
There’s some truth in that. He has actually found his long lost twin brother.
http://images.theage.com.au/2011/07/20/2503763/Leunigcod-620×0.jpg
by Gaffhook on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:52 pm
Not even these charlatans said carbon dioxide was weightless.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385×601685
by BK on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:53 pm
Centre
I think he committed suicide.
But you are right about News; they really do own cops and politicians. They say “jump” and the pollies and cops (and presumably others) say “How high?”.
by Diogenes on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:53 pm
From Russia With Love. Adourless, colourless, taseless
by The Finnigans on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:55 pm
taseless = tasteless
by The Finnigans on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:56 pm
Not a good sign from the US.
http://news.yahoo.com/mortgage-applications-see-biggest-increase-4-months-mba-110349498.html
by BK on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:56 pm
Hang on!
So this guy decides, in the following exact order to:
1. Be a whistleblower
2. Commit suicide
Yeah and Bin Laden is treating himself to 147 or whatever virgins as we type
by Centre on Jul 21, 2011 at 5:58 pm
Cmon Prime Minister have a media inquiry,better still have a royal commission into it with wide ranging terms of reference.Give these bludgers their come uppence
by canasta76 on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:00 pm
Which in police speak is no suspicious circumstances, sorry I thought this was a given.
by ruawake on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:00 pm
We seem to be a on a bit of a 70s redux, with NotW resembling Watergate, and Rupert doing an R M Nixon.
It reminds me that when Kerry Packer signed up all those international cricketers for his new World Series Cricket, Patrick Cook did a cartoon imagining him doing the same for politicians. He showed a long-suffering bloke listening to the radio,
“… Bringing to 140 (85 Government and 55 Labor) signing up for Mr Packer’s new Super Elections Series. When somebody pointed out that this might harm the democratic process he responded, ‘ Why, those old fuddy-duddies…’ ”
before bloke hastily switched off the radio.
Government by opinion polling …. Super Elections, same things. Fiction becomes reality.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:01 pm
I don’t think there’s anything suspicious here, fellas. Apparently the guy was a complete pisspot and his liver had passed-away years ago.
You probably have to hit the hard stuff in order to scribe for Rupert if you have any self-respect.
Sure he was a whistle-blower but even they die from natural causes from time to time.
by smithe on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:04 pm
I am not a criminal. I am not a criminal…..at least Tricky Dicky at the end of the day had the guts to resign.
I reckon they’re gonna have to prise Rupe’s cold dead fingers off the helm at News Corp.
by smithe on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:06 pm
Lizzie
Everyone is a little different in their reactions. I have heard the comment about being “teacherish” quite a few times.
It is odd because Rudd was accused of talking too far above people and in bureaucratic language. Personally I preferred this but it is very much a personal reaction.
Any way if the spin doctors are doing their job they would find out
Actually this is EXACTLY what focus groups should be able to tell you.
by daretotread on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:07 pm
Um, so Abbott says that the media is responsible for “keeping Government’s to account”.
Why didn’t he say “keeping politicians to account” whether or not they are part of the Government or members of governing parties?
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:08 pm
smithe,
His timing for suicide could have been better perhaps? Unless…
by janice2 on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Ms Gillard talks in a condescending way and speaking down to people as if she’s smart and we’re all stupid. No wonder she’s so unpopular.
by Glen on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Hairynose,
Was your complaint in relation to this interview with the Premier ?
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2011/07/21/3274628.htm?site=perth&program=720_mornings
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:09 pm
She’s right in some cases.
by roaldan1000 on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:10 pm
Weightless?
http://www.theage.com.au/national/he-says-she-says-in-a-faux-election-campaign-20110715-1hhx3.html
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:10 pm
Aristotle,
I also understand that budgie smugglers are up in arms, well very crutchety, about any reduction in carbon. Without carbon they’ll fall apart at the seams and lose all load-bearing capacity. They also claim they are getting great support from balls who feel they’ll be more open to pricking..
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:10 pm
well in your case….
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:10 pm
With his views, he could get serious money on 2GB. No Labor credibility despite his origins.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:10 pm
There’s nothing more condescending than Tony Abbott saying that he never supported an ETS or a carbon tax, when he did.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:12 pm
Libs don’t do numeracy.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:13 pm
Frank proves my point…
Labor treats anybody who disagrees with them as stupid whether they are or not. It doesn’t surprise me Labor are so unpopular.
by Glen on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:13 pm
Well, she does happen to be smarter than her critics
:
by janice2 on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:13 pm
That’s not condescending that’s just an example of a liar.
by Glen on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:14 pm
http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/07/20/jon_stewart_murdoch_scandal
Jon Stewart on Mudoch appearance.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:14 pm
Excuse me? It was John Howard that said “working families have never been better off” when millions of them were worried about WorkChoices.
That is condescension of the highest order.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:14 pm
Well your posts prove her point exactly
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:15 pm
Blatantly lying is a form of condescension, because it means Abbott assumes people are too stupid to know that he is lying.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:16 pm
Gary Johns – another IPA hack geez the sprout like bindii.
by ruawake on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:16 pm
Glen
get over yourself the Prime Minister isnt being condescending but in your case she would have to spell it out to you as you are just that stoopid stupid
by canasta76 on Jul 21, 2011 at 6:16 pm