Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
The Finnagans
Thanks for the link, my parents loved that song.
by poroti on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:29 pm
Wendycarlisle Lord Monckton’s fruity outburst at ABC chairman Maurice Newman – and the legal threat. >report & audio > readfearn.com/2011/07/monckt…”(via @readfern)
anyone have any more info?
by gusface on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:30 pm
“yep, that what you are”
your so kind
by rummel on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:31 pm
But there are also American laws against bribing of overseas officials by American companies. A second iron in the fire?
by It’s Time on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:32 pm
gusface
Sounds like this.
http://www.readfearn.com/2011/07/monckton-threatens-to-sue-abc/
by poroti on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:34 pm
And while it’s clearly not winning her votes, it is about the right pitch for the media, although it might still be a bit high, judging by the popular Abbott’s statements.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:34 pm
janice2@7059
Whats the line the media always trot out when having a go at *OTHERS*
by dave on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:35 pm
This covers it I think. Alcatel got fined how much for bribing people to buy their stuff? Imagine what bribing police will cost.
by ruawake on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:35 pm
What are people crapping on about the NBN plans being expensive?
I am looking at Internode’s plans here:
http://www.internode.on.net/news/2011/07/236.php
Most people would only need to spend $70 – $90 a month for 30 or 200 GB.
But you have to remember this:
1) The actual speed of the connection is what you will get, it isn’t like ADSL2 where you pay for a 20 Mbps connection but actually only get 8 or 9 Mbps depending on how far away you are from the exchange.
2) As soon as someone connects to the NBN, they can cancel their phone line subscription, because their phone calls go over the NBN.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:38 pm
Grim news for the Murdoch Dauphin.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jul/20/james-murdoch-gordon-taylor-payoff
by poroti on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:39 pm
Dave
Exactly. I don’t suppose they’re worried that some of their “sources” might disappear? Or, given Turnbull is so adamant that an inquiry would be a “waste of time” that there might be more to the Godwin Grech saga? Or am I being cynical?
by janice2 on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:40 pm
Charming. He can’t produce any evidence at all to support his claims, and so he resorts to name-calling.
Why Australians give this man the time of day is anyone’s guess. Just another Briton with a posh accent and fancy title. In years past we would’ve scoffed at such a person lecturing us about how to run our own affairs.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:41 pm
YouTuberlator?
by charlton on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:42 pm
And both have science backgrounds. The scourge of this issue are the non-science educated people who seem to accept a post modernism gestalt that reality is whatever you choose to perceive it as.
by It’s Time on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:42 pm
Notice how Atlantis is going to fly straight over Cuba.
The entire space shuttle program was just a really expensive way of spying on Cuba.
See, no one could pick it because they made a detour to space, but it is obvious now.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:43 pm
I currently pay $80 per month (I think) for crappy Next G wireless, plus the Telstra line rental. If I was able to get the NBN I’d sign up in a flash.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:44 pm
Yes, I’ve always felt that Abbott’s ideology can be best described as right wing post modernism.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:44 pm
What part of the show does it happen? I’m watching Atlantis being flown in to the Kennedy space centre by Tom Hanks.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:45 pm
Why are we getting screwed in Australia on music downloads?
The Wu Lyf album is $8 to download from Amazon but we can’t get it so I have to pay
$17 to itunes instead.
I’m sick of us getting ripped off.
by Diogenes on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:46 pm
Son is paying $74 a month for satellite which is slow as a wet week. Over the past 3 months he has had 3 service calls (has to wait about 3 weeks for a Techie to come) – it is “fixed” and three days to a week later it is “broken” again. No wonder he blows his top when he hears Turnbull et al railing against NBN.
by janice2 on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:46 pm
Same here. I pay $40 a month for 9 GB wireless because my only other option is to sign a 12 month contract with Telstra bigpond cable.
I’d sign up for the NBN immediately if it meant I could cancel my phone bill (thus saving I think $25)
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:46 pm
ShowsOn
Personally I find it either Quantum Mechanics politics or Medievalism.
by poroti on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:47 pm
fess
Monckton also whines incessantly about ad hominem attacks and has spent most of his trip abusing people.
The man is a hypocrite of the highest order.
by Diogenes on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:48 pm
TRIVIA: Song Currently being played on Atlantis’ stereo
KOKOMO – THE BEACH BOYS
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:48 pm
Frank
Just catching up with the backlog of posts (the term “bludgers” seems entirely inappropriate given the huge volume of posts
)
I heard your friend Sandra on ABC early this morning. I immediately thought she had to have some sort of connection to PB. Most of the callers were in agreeance with the majority here (ie Newscorp = evil empire).
I only recall two pro Murdoch callers, the first of which was some old biddy who couldn’t resist getting in a comment about “the Labour Party being very rude to Mr Murdoch” (wtte), as if ther’s some sort of connection with Britain’s Labour Party and our ALP.
Sheesh, and people like that actually get to vote.
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:49 pm
Personally I find it either Quantum Mechanics politics or Medievalism.]
What did Keating call it? Obscurantism?
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:49 pm
The sooner Monckton goes back to his land of boarding schools for inbred upper class twits the better.
by BK on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:50 pm
I love how the Atlantis commentary team have no qualms about staying silent when there is nothing to say. Sometimes less is more.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:50 pm
From memory around 7.15pm.
by charlton on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:50 pm
It’s an interesting question. Will he continue to come here once a year once the ETS is passed?
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:51 pm
Diogenes
Fair dues. Ad hominem attacks on him are totally unfair. They should be ad simian attacks.
by poroti on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:51 pm
Thanks.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:51 pm
The first view through the windshield of Atlantis!
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:52 pm
ATLANTIS WILL SOON BE GOING SUBSONIC
STAND BY FOR SONIC BOOM
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:53 pm
poroti
read somewhere that the only true “modern” human are from sub saharan africa
the rest of us are neanderthal crossbreeds
by gusface on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:53 pm
I HEARD THE SONIC BOOM!
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:55 pm
Where will I get my dose of absurd hilarity then BK?
by drake on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:55 pm
Zoidberg..err Zoilord
Keep paying $190 per month and get 1TB per month at 100/40 Mbps. Of course you’ll have to pay the extra costs for voip calls. Scary stuff. Stop the NBN immediately. The people are not worthy.
by It’s Time on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:55 pm
I wonder if Mr Monckton is aware that Newmann has publicly advocated the ABC give more time to ‘sceptics’.
by Cuppa on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:55 pm
A bit of hybrid vigour can’t be a bad thing
by drake on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:56 pm
rummel,
Soorry, I’ve been off having my other dinner.
The purpose of the current legislaltion is to reduce emission by 5% by 2020.
This does not in any way signal the demise of the Coal industry.
You seem to be stuck on stupid.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:56 pm
The pilot view camera looks like an ultrasound image!
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:56 pm
Barnaby provides a rich vein of it, drake!
by BK on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:56 pm
Song playing on Alantis’ radio:
Born in the USA – Bruce Springsteen
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:56 pm
An Attempt to rewrite history above.
You are not debating policy here, you very rarely do.
And you were an abusive sod here in 2007.
I remember it well.
by dave on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:57 pm
Ok Frank, I hope I’ve got it right. Tony Delroy’s Nightlife:
Edit of 12-1am segment:
http://www.box.net/shared/n5o0qy6rgr9eda2v845a
Edit of 1-2am segment:
http://www.box.net/shared/qcatx2yfan963thu3pa0
by george on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:57 pm
Look on the bright side – some mongrels are better than others.
by janice2 on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:59 pm
gusface
I have participated in the National Geographic’s Genographic project and it seems that my line came “out of Africa” into Europe when the Neanderthals were still extant. From the body build of one side of my family and “artists impressions” of Neanderthals I concluded a while back that there just had to be some “fraternisation” between the African immigrants and the “natives”.
by poroti on Jul 21, 2011 at 7:59 pm
Frank, I’m just gonna grab the whole 4-5am Overnight
by george on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:00 pm
little bit of history
arbjay on palmers blog was/is my bro
he first got me invo;ved in politcal blogging cos of leopold nostra and young glen
bad bad peeps
glen has tried to broaden his mind
sadly he seems to contract more than expand
by gusface on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:00 pm