Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Something to do with an all expenses paid trip courtesy of Gina Rhinestone and probably hiring the Press Club venue and attendees as well for the mad Monkton?
by It’s Time on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:01 pm
BK,
Maybe Barnaby and Monckton should be on some kind of exchange program?
The poms like a good laugh.
by drake on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:01 pm
How many aliens did they bring back?
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:01 pm
He is bought and paid for by gina reinheart – why are we not surprised?
Bile hate & greed incorporated.
by dave on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:01 pm
poroti
i think it was a natgeo article i was reading
fascinating stuff how we still debate the origin of our species
by gusface on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:01 pm
Rua
I am sure it is going to cost Roo a motza when the sun shine in.
I know nothings means absolutely nothing.
The last sentence below will have him filling his diaper.
THE FCPA EXPLAINED
http://www.fcpaenforcement.com/explained/explained.asp
by Gaffhook on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:01 pm
drake
There is every reason to think that they both have been the subject of some unfortunate genetic exchange.
by BK on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:04 pm
Its Tone’s acolytes in the MSM spreading the bull.
They would have been complaining when colour TV came in if it was a labor initiative, but it is so much more expensive than a black and white tv.
Analogue is fine why do we need digital.
My dial phone works well, why do we need touch tone phones.
Dial up internet is sufficient, any thing else will just be used to view porn.
If people like their black and white analogue tv well stick with it and watch snow and listen to fuzzy noise all day.
If people like dial up no-one is forcing them to the NBN.
by castle on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:04 pm
Eli Pariser, an internet activist, has just had published – The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is Hiding From You.
Critique: June 30, 2011: http://www.economist.com/node/18894910
The dangers of the internet: invisible sieve: hidden especially for you
This morning’s program of ABC Future Tense was entitled – Backtracking to the global village
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/futuretense/stories/2011/3267627.htm#transcript
by Pegasus on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:05 pm
Some idea of fines that can be imposed by FCPA.
The first sentence says that if they find they have paid the coppers 50 times over the years then that is $100mil before we start looking at “missing records etc”.
Happy days methinks.
http://www.fcpaenforcement.com/explained/explained.asp
by Gaffhook on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:06 pm
pegasu,
Sometimes I wish the internet would hide you.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:06 pm
It was … and they probably did!
by Cuppa on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:07 pm
Erm, it was :_)
and back in ye olden days when TV was introsduced it was predicted that it would kill radio.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:07 pm
Atlantis sounds like it is crying.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:07 pm
+1
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:08 pm
GG @ 7260
by george on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:08 pm
From Matt Taibbi – always excellent value
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/how-rupert-murdoch-dragged-media-into-the-swamp-20110719
by dave on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:08 pm
Nasty BK, nasty.
by drake on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:08 pm
frank gg
leave peg OFF
by gusface on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:11 pm
That was very moving.
I’m going to email it to a Vietnam Vet. mate of mine who has bladder cancer thought to have been contracted via exposure to Agent Orange.
by charlton on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:12 pm
gus,
Off where, a pier?
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:12 pm
gusface
I highly recommend giving the Nat Geo backed Genographic project a go. You can track the migration paths of both the female and male lines of your family over thousands of years. Seeing the matches in different countries to your DNA may confirm or challenge notions of where you came from. Anyway check out the site and give it a go.
Intro
https://genographic.nationalgeographic.com/genographic/lan/en/index.htm
How to
https://genographic.nationalgeographic.com/genographic/lan/en/participate.html
by poroti on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:13 pm
gg
pls old coque
lets critiquie when needed, not as a reflex reaction
by gusface on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:14 pm
Thanks for those links Pegasus
by shellbell on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:15 pm
gus,
I’ll play how I like.
You can please your Greens inhibitions anywhere you please.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:16 pm
gg
fair enough
but peg does have some interesting stuff
by gusface on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:19 pm
Peter Garrett, Mattias Cormann, Arthur Sinodinos and Cheryl Kernot on The Nation tonight.
Cormann continues to show he is every inch one of Tony Abbott’s Goons. He is rude, beligerant, constantly interrupting and contemptuous.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:19 pm
In relation to the Murdoch media and its undue influence over politics, it always seemed to me that it always exercised its influence by creating polarisation.
The Murdoch media is always taking one side of argument, “good vs evil”. It is more opinion than fact reporting. It reports facts with reference to its self created dichotomy. It’s addictive to a reader but damaging to society by its polarisation.
The two-party political system is a perfect fit for the Murdoch media. A two party system is itself a dichotomy. This allows the Murdoch media to align its false dichotomy with the two party dichotomy allowing the Murdoch media to choose sides and play favourites.
So it follows that the solution to this problem is to have a real multiparty system, Proportional Representation. With more than two main parties it will be harder for the Murdoch media to play “good vs evil” and exercise its disproportionate influence.
by Scrutineer on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:19 pm
From that link about Monkton threaten to sue the abc.
The bit about abc chairman, newman, sounds like…abbott telling Australians Economists there are wrong and to think again (…until you agree with me) and a reason why the abc is not presenting more facts on climate change.
http://www.readfearn.com/2011/07/monckton-threatens-to-sue-abc/
by dave on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:20 pm
rupe is about to stop rocking
by gusface on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:21 pm
Why can’t I work for NASA TV?
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:21 pm
Greensborough Growler
And when was the last time a Jack Russell had ANY inhibition ?
by poroti on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:22 pm
If humans are alleged to have caused global warming that leaves Monckton innocent.
by BK on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:23 pm
Much easier to have a multiownership system of the media without 70% being in one owners stable.
by Gaffhook on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:24 pm
However I do believe Janice is onto something here.
the Pm has what? More than a dozen journalist supposed to be hanging off her evry word; but they just largely ignore everything she says. Why? Because the PM is explaining everything like a schoolteacher (that is the analogy being used).
So, if the PM is explaining everything clearly and laboriously, why should the media bother to pay attention; it’s not like they have to break it down for people. They can joke amongst themselves and later just belittle the PM.
Why doesn’t the PM try using and impregnable, dry and swift explanation for at press conferences; deliver a couplet of slogans, and hand out papers so the media have to do their homework: understand it and explain it to the punters? pretty soon the competition in the pack will be about who best understands this complicated stuff, not who can make juvenile snide remarks about the PM.
by JohD on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:24 pm
“Cormann continues to show he is every inch one of Tony Abbott’s Goons. He is rude, beligerant, constantly interrupting and contemptuous”.
And this is only to the person showing him his seat.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:25 pm
poroti,
Isn’t poroti French for fire hydrant?
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:26 pm
BK
.
Actually old chap the future under Lord Monkeyshines and Tony Abbott has already been predicted.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvR2mCx-Jnc
by poroti on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:26 pm
BK – the erudite executioner
by drake on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:27 pm
poroti
by BK on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:27 pm
shellbell,
Belated “Thank you” for your succinct explanation to JV last night about DL’s logic regarding usage of “Malaysian solution”
by Pegasus on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:28 pm
Greensborough Growler
.
Sacre Beaujolais !
by poroti on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:28 pm
drake
I’ve been called a lot of things in my life, but never that.
Thank you.
by BK on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:29 pm
poroti,
A sort of “piss” in our times.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:29 pm
He talks right over the top of Cheryl Kernot as well – basically anyone who disputes his views. All Liberals seem to take this approach with them when they do panels. Anyone who has seen the appalling way Kelly O’Dwyer conducts herself, or Chris Pyne when they do panel interviews would recognise the Cormann tactics tonight.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:30 pm
gusface
Regarding responses by GG, FC and george … made me laugh for all sorts of reasons
by Pegasus on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:31 pm
Gaffhook @ 7283
I take your point, however to do anything about it requires forced sales of media outlets. Making media owners do that, is like making cats take baths.
by Scrutineer on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:32 pm
George – we talked a bit about tax avoidance in the US last night.
Bit more here from Matt Taibbi -
The full article is not long but worth a read -
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/holiday-in-scambodia-20110720
by dave on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:33 pm
Sinodinos: ‘the genus of the Australian character’.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:33 pm
confessions
Cormann is a box headed bully boy. And, yes, it is a tactic of those you mentioned to soak up as much available time that they can out of a panel interview.
by BK on Jul 21, 2011 at 8:33 pm