Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Wow, he HAS dropped off!!! I am stunned
by Dario on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:33 am
I reckon Evans has to attack AS big time tomorrow, and that’s not his forte
by Dario on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:34 am
Evans 1 min behind Andy now.
by This little black duck on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:40 am
57 seconds
by This little black duck on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:42 am
Which is too iffy to regain on the ITT
by Dario on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:42 am
Will Cadel have enough for tomorrow? Expect Frank to attack tomorrow
by Dario on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:43 am
Dario,
1 minute easy in time trial.
by This little black duck on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:43 am
At least Contador and Sanchez are gone
by Dario on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:44 am
No way will it be ‘easy’. If Andy is wearing yellow for it then he will grow an extra leg.
by Dario on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:44 am
Till tomorrow. Er, later today.
by This little black duck on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:45 am
Yup, nite
by Dario on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:49 am
nite
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:54 am
The Sham I am has spoken:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/shoe-leather-and-welcome-worn-out/story-e6frgd0x-1226099298268
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 22, 2011 at 2:18 am
The OO is testy with PM Gillard
by MickGCollins on Jul 22, 2011 at 2:28 am
How surprisement.
When the PM tells them to watch out…
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 22, 2011 at 2:35 am
Seems that the Indies and the Greens want a Media enquiry, Windsor wtte “need to look into the disrespect of government and also sections of Media that think they own the Government. Tony seems to be agressively opposed, wtte “Lay of LTD News, put up or shut up .. ”
http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-demands-gillard-clarify-news-comments-20110721-1hqwx.html
by MickGCollins on Jul 22, 2011 at 2:37 am
welp off to bed
by MickGCollins on Jul 22, 2011 at 2:38 am
Er. I’m Scringler, but problem with log in? Have I been disappeared?
+++
I think this is a first. Abbott told the truth.
At a press conference this morning, Abbott, when questioned about hacking in the UK and the possible fallout in Australia, said: “We have been well served by the media in … this country …”
Yes. Accurate. “We” meaning the Liberal Party and its goons.
The other thing that stuck in my craw was the ABC24′s ticker line that ran from yesterday and most of today.
It read: Murdoch’s testimony “cements” his place as News Corp head.
Really? That’s not news. It’s propaganda.
by Tony Jenner on Jul 22, 2011 at 3:31 am
Fair go. I’m sure it was just a proof-reading error. Should have read
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 22, 2011 at 6:18 am
One sane liberal in a sea of stupidity.
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/turnbull-defends-scientists-20110721-1hr6s.html
by fredn on Jul 22, 2011 at 6:21 am
Don’t know what I’m doing up at this early hour, but I am and found myself reading the Pilger article quoted a few pages back.
This description caught my attention:
In a word: bootstrapping.
http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?PHPSESSID=7cf8b000a9ab9ecf4db72b12d0baec74&topic=11879.msg141183#msg141183
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 22, 2011 at 6:22 am
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
@
@StGusface @TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm, great speech, and if that speech is not a declaration of war to Abbott then i am Rupert Murdoch #auspol
21 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 22, 2011 at 6:27 am
#7817 – saw that too and i was outraged.
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
@
@abcmarkscott ABC Ticker: “Murdoch’s testimony “cements” his place as News Corp head” since when ABC becomes #NewsCoprse propaganda machine?
21 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 22, 2011 at 6:46 am
7736 JohD
Holy Cow! That is serious criminal conspiracy if it can be shown. If it is shown, I’d venture to suggest that the News empire is finished, as distinct from the current state of play where it is just the British (NI) that has taken a major hit.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 22, 2011 at 6:48 am
Thanks for that, JohD. I think that’s a brilliant, imaginative and rational proposal. Something they could look at, seeing that not all hostility is merely carbon tax noise.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 22, 2011 at 6:53 am
Further to the Murdoch bootstrap process…
It’s important, as the excerpt above notes concerning the NYT, for something that’s recognized as a source of “good” journalism to get into the bootstrap merry-go-round. It launders the original myth by giving it external gravitas. In Australia, this is the ABC’s role.
As soon as an external and “respected” source validates the story, it becomes accepted wisdom. “Everybody knows that… [the BER was a debacle, Pink Batts was a fiasco]“.
The ultimate aim of the bootstrap is to not even need to cite facts anymore. Just the name of the “scandal” is sufficient.
You know you’ve achieved this crystallized, refined level of bootstrapping when you, for example, get someone on television, in response to a point made by a member of the government, to blurt out something like, “Can I just say two words? ‘Pink Batts’”. At this stage, if you’ve picked the audience properly you’ll get laughter and applause: think Q&A, which is peppered with examples like this. The moderator will then move onto something else, claiming “time constraints”, or “a lot of questions to come” that need answers. At this point of purity the bootstrap is 99.99% proof against any factual rebuttal.
Indeed, when the final report comes out (as it did with the HIP and BER programs) not even the government directs attention to it factual content, because to even mention the name of the program, even to point out that it has been praised by the committee that all the newspapers were clamoring for and demanding to be established a few months before, has such negative connotations.
The bootstrap at the moment is that the Carbon Tax phoney campaign is starting to bore the public. Apparently they can’t take more than a week-and-a-half of explanation before they switch off. In Murdoch World one poll, maybe two (two is good, if the other is from a non-Murdoch outlet, like Fairfax) is all that’s needed to tell whether a campaign has been successful or not. Like a Reality TV show, there’s a week of gossip leading up to The Vote, and then the public moves on (or is moved on) to the next confected drama.
To me this signals that the Murdoch media is worried that Gillard’s “campaign” might work, that the slow and steady chipping away, the steady crumbling of Abbott’s position, as contradiction follows upon contradiction, might start to be noticed.
Also we have News beginning to lose credibility in the public’s mind, a mind that has been conditioned by News to react reflexively and shallowly to unsubstantiated gossip and speculation. There’s every chance that the public’s mind might turn against News. Frankenstein’s monster might murder its creator. Stranger things have happened.
While lightweights like Annbel Crabb assure us that the Oz only prints Coal Industry press releases and thus doesn’t have to bother with hacking phones or other illegal means to get its news stories, there’s a danger that the public might put 2 and 2 together, about as unsophisticated a piece of arithmetic as is possible, but enough to finger News.
This is the problem with shallowness and fickleness: its transferable. I wonder how much love the public really does have for the Daily Telegraph and The Australian?
Early days yet, of course, but I get the feeling that the local branch of News is worried that its days as the shaper of public opinion here are numbered. Murdoch et fils didn’t do much to stem the tide when they went before the HoC committee.
They were an unlovely pair, weren’t they? Not the types to be taken to the public’s heart… the father, reminiscent to me of the self-made Jet Rink in Giant (if he had made it to 80), grunting incoherently into a microphone, and then the motor-mouthed son, babbling in bizoid tongues looking for all the world like a real estate salesman with a lemon to sell.
Shanahan’s article this morning, declaring the Carbon Tax debate over (and lost by the government), with its faux concern for Gillard slipping even further in the public’s estimation if she persisted, was an indication to me that something’s up. The only credible poll that has been conducted actually within the campaign period, Essential, showed up a blip of improvement for the government. There may be other polls out there showing the same thing.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:07 am
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
Oh dear, #Slynews’ bimbo won some outstanding broadcast journo award and an orgy of self congratulation how #sadment
46 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:08 am
They’re Foxtel’s internal awards, not much more than an “Outstanding Sales Achievement” plaque given out at the company Christmas party.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:11 am
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
The #Shuttle and its last flight. A symbol of #USA’s great past, uncertain present and a fucked future
6 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:12 am
A few thoughts this morning.
The malaysia deal is being reported to be signed next week, this is turning into the Girl who cried wolf. I hope its signed because i have had enough of listening to it.
Turnbull – Im angry that he keeps on undercutting Abbott. If Turnbull wants a successful Labor Government he should continue, better still take over from Abbott because then Libs a sure to trail by 10 points again. Its no surprise the left like turnbull, he could lead labor with out causing a ripple.
by rummel on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:21 am
just checking the Twitter feed, and some adjoining tweets seemed to question the meme being pushed
by sprocket_ on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:22 am
James called for Porkies.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/james-murdoch-accused-of-lying-to-inquiry-20110722-1hrgj.html
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:23 am
rummel
Abbott says he accepts the science around climate change. Turnbull says he accepts the science around climate change.
How is Turnbull saying that undermining Abbott?
by zoomster on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:34 am
Good morning Bludgers. Minus 3.5 deg and frosty here in the Adelaide Hills.
Last night smithe posted this.
There are parallels here in Australia. I am inclined to see the MSM in the same light as vectors in epidemiology.
http://www.wordiq.com/definition/Vector_%28biology%29
by BK on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:35 am
Good morning, fellow Bludgers.
BK: it was bloody freezing here in the Barossa as well. My garden is so white it looks like it has snowed!
by Danny Lewis on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:42 am
The OO must have yesterday’s headlines on its website because there is no mention of Turnbull’s CC speech.
Fair and balanced?
Yeah!
by BK on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:45 am
No wonder I’m cold. According to the Bureau of Meterology it is currently -2.7 around the corner in Nuriootpa.
Sheesh! Maybe it is snow after all …
by Danny Lewis on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:45 am
For god’s sake, what would you expect? Honestly, that Turnbull (a man of intelligence and achievement) would simply toe Abbott’s moronic line? You must understand, Abbott is nothing more than the mouthpiece for the special interests, sanctioned by Howard and Minchin, that have effectively taken control of the Liberal Party.
It’s got nothing to do with Abbott, just as Abbott has nothing to do with ideas or debate.
by drake on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:55 am
Great post BB @ 7825 and so accurate.
And speaking of the Malaysian deal, the ABC is up to its usual tricks of providing the opportunity for the opposition to comment on a policy before the details are announced, thereby yet again letting them set the agenda.
by adrian on Jul 22, 2011 at 7:56 am
Morning all, feeling a bit bleary eyed after watching Cadel Evans in the Tour last night. I still think he has a good chance on Sunday. And BK is right – it is cold here on the eastern end of Adelaide this morning!
Speaking of media, this is an interesting development for James Murdoch re: the UK media investigations. Police are now checking other News International papers’ use of private investigators:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-21/hacking-evidence-to-be-looked-at-again/2805108
Interesting because, if the practices were found to extend beyond one paper, it would be very hard for NI executives to deny knowledge, or even liability. “My editors all conspired against me to use these same tactics without my knowledge. They paid for it out of their own pockets, so I never saw an expense receipt either”.
Finally, very pleased to see Turnbull calling for an end to Liberal enchantment with CC liars. I don’t even think they are denialists. Like Monckton, they lie and they know it.
by Socrates on Jul 22, 2011 at 8:12 am
Turnbull speaks truthfully on this matter.
by BK on Jul 22, 2011 at 8:13 am
Morning all on this freezing cold and very wet day on the MNC of NSW .
BK and Smithe – No wonder he didn’t mention Rupe. He was praising him to high heavens a couple of days ago. Turnbull is very conflicted at the moment but I praise him for his speech last night.
Loved the bit where he pointed out that it is embarrassing when meeting Chinese and Indian VIPs while Abbott is back here raving and ranting.
First Party meeting in Canberra next month should be heaps of fun.
BK -
by BH on Jul 22, 2011 at 8:14 am
LOL. Wasn’t it John Howard who was always banging on about the Liberal Party being a broad church?
I find it really interesting that, in spite of the poll results, Libs are so skittish they are being spooked by the smallest of things. Anyone would think you are worried the general public might twig to the fact that Abbott is an empty suit and when they look beyond him they discover there’s nothing else on offer …
by Danny Lewis on Jul 22, 2011 at 8:14 am
Danny, Socrates and other SA Bludgers. Even our alpacas have a thick coating of frost on their becks.
by BK on Jul 22, 2011 at 8:15 am
Alan Moir and Rupert.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
by BK on Jul 22, 2011 at 8:20 am
Further to 7839, Met Police are now also investigating whether papers (including but not only NOTW) illegally used mobile phone tracking data to identify people’s locations. IF so this would be a second category of illegally obtaining private data from police:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jul/21/phone-hacking-police-mobile-tracking
Meanwhile a former NOTW seditor and lawyer allege James Murdoch lied to MPs
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jul/21/james-murdoch-select-committee-evidence
by Socrates on Jul 22, 2011 at 8:21 am
Morning bludgers
Sunny morning here in Melbourne, and actually quite amild morning. Unlike you guys in SA. Although there is flooding in the Gippsland area.
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 8:23 am
Socrates
Appararently some anonymous group is about to release News Corp emails which are damning. Dont know how accurate this info is.
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 8:25 am
Watching Turnbull last night I was wishing that the efforts to get Turnbull into the Labor Party back at the time of the Constitutional Convention in the late 90′s had worked.
He delivered the clearest and most informative speech on why we need to accept the science I have heard to date. It is all over the airwaves this morning and the reception of his speech is getting strong support apart from the usual Monckton supporters.
Loved his reference to science trumps Lord Monckton and emails. More strength to him and watch out Abbott.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 22, 2011 at 8:27 am
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 8:28 am