Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Dennis Shanahan rounds out the bootstrapping of Cassidy’s and Grattan’s articles from this week by declaring the PM needs to “broaden the national conversation beyond the carbon tax”.
The PM is damned if she does, and damned if she doesn’t. So she should just ignore them and keep doing what she’s doing.
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:14 am
The important words are “at present”. Hang in there.
by Gary on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:14 am
Gary
Thank goodness i stopped listening to Mitchell years ago. What a buffoon
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:15 am
Gary
I am hoping for a big turnaround. Hope is all we have right?!
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:16 am
When your detractors are telling you to do something you know it aint for your own good. It pays to do the opposite.
by Gary on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:17 am
Nothing like a good dose of snobbery from the latte left – Geez, did it ever occur to you that these people used to be the backbone of Labor’s voting base? But why would they stay when they are being looked down upon like that?
Anyone who seriously considers themselves a supporter of the left would never come up with a proposal like that.
Would these benefit you Geez? Had a trip to the accountant recently?
by blackburnpseph on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:17 am
From Shanahan, so take it with a grain of salt. But has anyone heard ministers on their local radio stations? I don’t listen to the radio unless I’m in the car, and even then prefer CDs, so wouldn’t know.
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:17 am
I understand that the govt is getting pummelled right now. No one likes the sound of the carbon tax at all. Why should journos like Cassidy, Grattan and Shamas tell the govt to stop talking about it. Especially Shamas who cant wait for a coalition govt
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:18 am
Just don’t expect any improvement will be instant. It won’t be.
by Gary on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:18 am
Very true Victoria but still one must plan for victory. Another hot summer of fire, flood and climate change weather records will help turn the whole CT debate around and if/when that happens the whole game can change.
Patience is a virtue.
by geezlouise on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:18 am
confessions
I have not listened to talk back for a couple of weeks. Been listening to the sports channel. I do like my aussie rules! It has kept me sane to be honest
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:20 am
The CT ETS is going to be implemented regardless of the Coalition’s position and they will be in no position to repeal it, so Turnbull actually needs to say nothing. So his comments are purely having a go at Abbott and his group.
This is kind of funny as a Coalition support would say Turnbull should shut up because they are doing exceptionally well in the polls. If they were doing very badly then I guess their supporters would be looking for members to speak up.
The irony is that the government is doing exceptionally badly in the polls and some supporters want everybody to shut up and not mention the war….because…. it would make things worse? Labor is in the exact position where people should be speaking up on the poor leadership performance. But they think if we all shut up, no MP offer alternate suggestions, because things wlll get so much better and an election win is around the corner.
The statement on Turnbull speaking out actually is more pertinent for Labor MPs.
by Thomas Paine on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:21 am
Sorry to beat on this so much, but this is my passion.
The issue is not more land, although everyone seems to assume that is the case. Australia has tons of wide open spaces, but the reflexive development of these spaces is not the answer; too much infrastructure cost (roads, sewer, water etc.). and an expensive lifestyle (transport, childcare etc.)
The Queensland State Government has probably the most progressive development policy in the country. It became law in December 2009; is being implement widely across the State, except Brisbane City Council; and is being opposed by the LNP, especially by its leader Newman Campbell. It is called the Queensland Sustainable Planning Act 2009.
Naturally Newman is intellectually more advanced than Mr Abbott (just) so his slogans have more syllables in them. In his case he has justified Brisbane City Council refusal to implement the scheme with the slogan: “double the cars, double the Driveways, Double the People, half the trees.”
Of course he is required by law to implement the scheme but has used the liberal instruments within the law to foil it. viz. Putting a blanket ‘overlay’ over all property in Brisbane. The legislation allows for exceptions when there is a specific overlay. All other councils in SE Queensland are abiding by the legislation, and this is beginning to have a significant effect on the property market and building industry. All of it positive.
If the ALP wake up; this is Newman’s Achilles heel.
The legislation is basically a plan to provide 635,000 building blocks within existing suburbs by 2019. Essentially modifying the Single Unit Code to allow for two or more Homes to be built on a single property without onerous council fee penalties, provided it meets certain guidelines – mainly minimum size constraints.
This is having the effect of allowing people to build second homes on their properties to house family members, and even to generate rental income as a right. This has the effect of depriving councils of the revenue generated by high council development fees, but boosts their ability to recover cost through higher council rates.
by JohD on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:21 am
this sounds a bit like what they do in Holland, will google it later but they do it with very upmarket homes, not your broadacre out of side type houseing area.
they hold 100 year leases, and their life time mortgage is about as much as we pay at a bank till we have paid off our private debt so they never own a home there ( only the very very wealthy}
by my say on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:22 am
I was actually going to post a criticism of the ministers for not being out there talking about the CT. Well, that maybe the answer.
by Gary on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:22 am
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
@
@StGusface @TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm, great speech, and if that speech is not a declaration of war to Abbott then i am Rupert Murdoch #auspol
3 hours ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:22 am
That’s a very old (Norman, pre “Doomsday”) system which survives in pastoral & agricultural, and mining leases of varying lengths (“perpetual” lease, the longest, is c99 years; some are for several decades; some only years).
In Q until the 70s, housing for working-class families who qualified for “Housing Commission” loans, were qov developed. One selected a design from a small portfolio of developed designs (“project” homes are a private enterprise equivalent), and an HC certified builder. Loans were very long, interest rates very low. All very well with the government “Commonwealth Bank” and insurance companies guaranteeing gov debt; but …
All very Democratic-Socialist paradigm; so pre “economic rationalist” NeoCon NeoLib.
As government banks, BS/CUs and insurance co’s have been privatised; there’s little chance of pre-70s gov development’s returning.
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:23 am
we do the same and my oh loves those trucking shows becauce he was in the army reserve driving corps for 26 years i suppose
by my say on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:24 am
Hadley fancies himself as a Rugby League commentator, in touch with the Real People Of Australia. Used to be a cab driver, I believe. Someone or other was so impressed with a Hadley diatribe while in his cab that he invited him onto some radio show, and the rest is history.
Hadley is all “pies and sauce, washed down with a cold tinnie”. His tone is that of the crowd at a football ground heckling the ref. He speaks in that sort of “click tongue” way that Hottentots in South Africa use. Quite off-putting. I’ve never liked that type of boor: opinionated, outspoken, loud, bombastic and ugly. Has a view on everything. And all of it anti-Labor. He’s actually obsessed with Labor hating.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:26 am
I think it is time for Labor MPs to start to speak out on the performance of the PM and on policy and on the leadership team.
Better they do that now, a long way out from an election, than wait until it is too late and the disasterous dye set.
The Titanic is heading toward the iceberg and the captain keeps increasing the speed. The passangers are saying, shut up, wait, the captain will wake up and steer clear. About time for a mutiny, clear the bridge of captain and the officers and start moving that ship in a different direction.
by Thomas Paine on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:26 am
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:26 am
My Say is quite correct in point out the Netherlands as a good example. They do some very interesting things in housing models.
I hear a Dutch guy on the radio last week talking a model for elderly peoples housing, sounded interesting.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:27 am
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
#Slynews was presenting Gongs to itself and then make a big song and dance about it, how patheticment #auspol
6 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:28 am
this is the link to Peter Martin re the costings black hole. How is the coalition going to pay for direct action?
http://www.petermartin.com.au/2010/09/coalition-costings-inexcusable.html
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:29 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jul/21/phone-hacking-police-mobile-tracking
this is the biggest story in town of course, and in the world
if i had job in papers i would be very worried, people will stop buying them and then one is out of work
it could happen,
by my say on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:29 am
There is no dealing with Turnbull, what can they do that is going to worry him?
If Abbott wasn’t so stupid and made Turnbull shadow Treasurer he would be PM now. lol
The only thing Abbott could do to shut Turnbull up is offer him a more senior role.
by Thomas Paine on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:29 am
Hadley also has a few marriages behind him and a few defo payouts – what you get on radio is what there is in real life.
I dont think he has the inglorious history of drinking, groping and forging that Chris Smith has
by shellbell on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:30 am
JohD
You may find that Newman has a better grasp of the politics than the state government does. Increasing is a politically loaded issue in lots of ways from impacts on property values, urban amenity, heritage, vegetation preservation.
The other issue with drastically increasing ‘hard surface’ coverage in Brisbane is what effect all of the additional run off will have on flooding.
There is no simple solution.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:30 am
there nursing homes ( and they dont call them that} there, new living condition for the elderley is a bit like the translation.
they are so much nicer and look more like home, one does not feel like they are in an institution.
by my say on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:31 am
i still think we sit back and watch the biggest show on earth now coming out of the
US also and dont worry for 2 years.
big changes may be coming,
i feel very peaceful at the moment
by my say on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:33 am
Yep.
Geez, have these journos ever heard of ANY company putting out their lowest price first?
There’s a long way to go before the haggling among resellers – part of the NBN business plan – gets rolling. All the Internode price is is a benchmark for the HIGHEST anyone can charge. The next one will come in lower, or the one after them.
It’s called COMPETITION.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:34 am
I used to tune in regularly too Vic. Now I wouldn’t waste my time on him.
BTW On another matter. As a fellow Victorian, can you tell me if you have noticed any change in your electricity bill recently? Mine went from just under $400 last quarter to just under $600 this quarter – nearly 33% increase. Some of that will no doubt be because I have an additional person living here now, but it seems like a bit of a slug to me.
by Darn on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:34 am
http://www.perthnow.com.au/opinion/van-onselen-working-the-dark-arts-of-politics/story-e6frg41u-1225902520571
VanOnselen is one OO journo who doesn’t mind continuing his battle with Abbott.
by BH on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:34 am
Blackburnpseph, how would you like me to describe the large section of below average intelligence voters that are so enthused by the patent nonsense being peddled by the Abbott? I have always believed the ‘left’ is the lesser of the two evils but to deny the existence of an uneducated, indolent and fantastically greedy bogan element amongst them is akin to thinking that all company directors put their moral duty to their employees and customers ahead of their own interests? Are you still at Uni?
As for suggestions that targeting the hip pocket should only be done in accordance with ideological positions… well I find that surprisingly short sighted. I take it. You are ‘hard left’?
by geezlouise on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:34 am
With TP spouting his bile I think just a little reminder is required.
by Gary on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:34 am
BB
Aren’t you in Turramurra or thereabouts? A helicopter down near Kissing Point Road about 45 minutes ago.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:35 am
Is what we are seeing the turbulence which will accompany the end of the middle class and the end of nation states?
by Boerwar on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:36 am
My Say @ 7978
That was the impression that I got from the radio program
by blackburnpseph on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:36 am
Yes. I think it is a good sign that the ‘know alls’ with impaired judgement are suggesting the government move on from the carbon price debate. Ground is being made, discussion of media bias is mounting, Tony is screwing things up and ffs, it has only been days since the policy was announced.
A little bit of patience is needed.
by joe2 on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:37 am
If the Left continues to consider people who may vote for the Liberals as stupid they have no chance to turn it all around.
It’s the height of arrogance.
by Glen on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:38 am
Paine
You don’t get it do you?
Put aside your love/hate relationship with the PM. It wouldn’t matter who the leader was.
There has been a concerted effort by the media to destroy the ALP.
The fight is about policy and the vested interests either own the media or weild great influence.
Mining does not want to pay more tax. Tobacco companies want free reign & the biggest polluters want the taxpayers to fully fund their technological transitions.
by Dee on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:39 am
‘The Australian’ has three current AGW science stories to go with to demonstrate its balance:
(1) pollution slows down AGW (by way of sulfur particles from coal burning)
(2) a report on the deceleration in the growth of sea level rise
(3) record Arctic sea ice melt.
Guess which two it chooses?
How slurment to even think such a thing!
by Boerwar on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:39 am
One thing’s for sure, with all the rain we’re getting there’s going to be plenty of fuel for bush fires next summer.
by Darn on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:40 am
Glen
I agree with you!
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:40 am
My Say and others on this site – can you please join me in a big LOL.
ps: My Say – I have invited you especially as I believe you would this highly amusing.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:40 am
Interesting Gary.
On TV it’s been a different story – I’ve seen plenty of govt ministers.
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:41 am
Geezlouise @ 7983
The patronising tone of your post …… Ugh.
No, I am not a university student, and no … there are not pixies at the bottom of my garden
by blackburnpseph on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:43 am
Confessions
Bill Shorten was on ABC Melbourne this morning.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:43 am
BBS
I had you in my Commie column
by shellbell on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:44 am
Great idea, JohD – it’s also a solution to oldies being able to stay in their homes if the kids live ‘down the backyard’. Alternatively build a smaller home on the bloke and put the kids in the big ones.
by BH on Jul 22, 2011 at 10:45 am