Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-22/abbott-defends-broken-promise/2805876
This was first linked on PB last wee. Did someone send that report to the ABC?
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:11 pm
Mark Scott
Why am i not surprised that you have come out with shite like that at 8098.Hopefully we will have this media inquiry and that you along with newmann and certain sub editors and editors get the heave ho because of your outright refusal to follow the ABC charter ,not to mention the allegations about the Australia network.If and when this inquiry comes I hope it hits you all like a tsunami.
by canasta76 on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:18 pm
World at Noon doing the Turnbull speech at the moment. Turnbull saying he is only stating Liberal Party policy.
The PM responded and I realised part of the problem. She answered really well but she did it far too reasonably. Unfortunately the punters love a voice with authority. She will have to get a bit of the Thatcher about her answers – give away the Welsh softness and go for the Pommie way.
My mob are so far behind that I reckon reasonableness can be left out of it. Go the full monty on the Opposition’s ridiculous stance.
by BH on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:19 pm
This action by ACCC would help to set up a review process for Media Ownership.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/regulator-deals-blow-to-foxtels-bid-for-austar-20110722-1hrsr.html#ixzz1SnRp60Pf
by adam abdool on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:19 pm
Ladies and gentlemen, I think we have a winner.
by smithe on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:19 pm
World at Noon just played a grab of Alan Jones this morning wtte Malcolm Turnbull are you stupid or something? The people just do not want a carbon tax so you should go away just go away.
There you go problem solved no need for further discussion.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:19 pm
Now that’s a Mandy Rice Davies if ever I’ve heard one.
by Darn on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:24 pm
by Dee on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:27 pm
Leroy,
Forgive me, but Tanveer Ahmed is a duplicitous weathervane. For an explanation of this view, simply track his commentary for a month or two.
by drake on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:31 pm
Darn – I agree. He’d be more credible if he came out and said that. We all know what he means so why keep hedging.
by BH on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:33 pm
Heard Turnbull on Jon Faine this morning – pretty well articulating the same line he did last night. I agree it was very well put and makes the science part and the case for action unarguable.
I really think he has been getting advice from an older Liberal head because this is about the most subtle play he has yet made. And it is brilliant. He has not strayed from the party line of supporting Direct Action to reduce emissions by 5% by 2020.
But what he has done is expose the hollow sham of Abbott’s walking both sides of the street. Abbott is mostly using the whole thing as an attack weapon against Gillard. Aside from the ‘we’ll all be rooned’ line, Abbott has been using that plausible pause line Glen keeps plugging: our efforts won’t make any difference. Let’s wait for the rest of the world. He’s still got a policy of sorts with Direct Action but it’s so vague that he doesn’t need to do much even in trying to explain it.
So essentially he’s walking the denialist line while not openly admitting it -hence the near-daily contradictions which would be unsupportable with any scrutiny. This is why rage radio is so angry with Turnbull. They intuitively sense what he’s done (they’re in the denialist camp anyway), even though he hasn’t said a single thing against party policy.
I’m sure he’s not after a spill, at least not at present. The main thing he wanted to do was expose Abbott. After all, the position long-term is untenable. At the anti-carbon tax rallies the only ones in any numbers are the lunatic fringe. The party needs a bit of distance from them and some middle ground credibility, whatever the polls currently show. At some time, and well before an election, Abbott will have to dump the Direct Action shambles and come up with an alternative, or hand over the reins.
Treacherous? Maybe, but no worse than was done to him, and at least in the public interest.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:35 pm
This seems like a more focussed approach to a media enquiry than the online petition which is so broadly expressed there would be an enquiry into the publishers of Green Left Weekly.
http://greens.org.au/content/greens-move-inquiry-media-ownership-and-regulation-australia
by shellbell on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:41 pm
Its the old, *If I’m not going to be PM, neither are you* trick by turnbull.
And if abbott sacks him from the shadow cabinent, turnbull can go with the nuclear option of stepping up his criticism of abbott which is very fertile ground.
Will be great to see how the libs *we are a broad church* thingy goes if turbull really lets fly with his views across the board.
by dave on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:44 pm
The most politically significant aspect of the speech which was not all aimed at Tony Abbott was the references to how embarrassing it is to front India and China when Australia is taking no action despite being the highest per captia polluter.
That is a full-frontal attack on Abbott’s we shouldn’t act first mantra which has specifically referenced those two countries repeatedly and is now underminded from within his own party.
I’d suggest we’ll now see a move to more of a focus on the dog-whistling over trading permits with African countries (which we all know are dodgy, don’t we eh, nudge, nudge).
by roaldan1000 on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:45 pm
If they have done nothing wrong, what have they got to hide.
Surely an enquiry is in *the public interest* that we hear the media talking about so much.
by dave on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
Turnbull has just turned up the heat on Abbott, sack me if you dare. #auspol
14 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Shellbell:
That looks very reasonable from the Greens. Thanks for posting.
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Hi all, great to see MT lob a grenade in the unhinged one’s general direction. I was thinking this morning that MT wants to ensure the CT goes through and that there is no risk of Labors proposal falling over. He will never be PM and knows it so this is the only logical explanation I can come up.
by Paul_J on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:49 pm
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
Turnbull is an Investment Banker – they do deals, get the timing , manage the risks and strike. He got backing for his strike now #auspol
16 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:51 pm
Confessions
I am particularly interested in the privacy aspects. There is an area where much research is done but bugger all is then down by the government which sponsors the research.
Mr Xenophon was saying increased privacy would protect pollies, big business etc – maybe but the drawing of exemptions is childs play for a skilled legislative draftsperson.
by shellbell on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:52 pm
@ roaldan1000
Yes your right I think regarding China and India, I find that every denier/ coalition supporter / bogan uses the China argument regarding CC action. Up until now I have tried to argue it was unreasonable to expect China and India to forgoe expansion since we have already received the benefits of the same.
I argue with them every day at work so now I will use the embarrassment line.
by Paul_J on Jul 22, 2011 at 12:54 pm
No worries Drake, will check out his other articles later to see his trend.
On Malcolm, I thought he would wait until after the CP/ETS goes through before busting a move, but I guess he’s helping the situation along. Still think he’ll vote with the Party as a Team Player (as he’s already said), but then use the new reality to work on change within the Liberals.
by Leroy on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:01 pm
A salient point in the ACCC comments about the Foxtel takeover of Austar relates to the game-changing arrival of the NBN. Could this possibly be why the Coalition and Murdoch media have plotted to scuttle the NBN or at least throttle it down to speeds which are slow enough to avoid wide-spread internet pay-tv delivery?
[In a statement issued this morning, the regulator said: “Foxtel and Austar are the only significant providers of subscription television services in Australia. The proposed merger would therefore effectively create a near monopoly subscription television provider across Australia.”
“In the absence of the proposed acquisition, and in particular following the rollout of the NBN, the ACCC considers it likely that industry changes will substantially increase
http://www.smh.com.au/business/regulator-deals-blow-to-foxtels-bid-for-austar-20110722-1hrsr.html
by Atticus on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:05 pm
Here’s the rest of the ACCC comment about anti-competiveness of Foxtel merging with Austar.
by Atticus on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:07 pm
Totally agree. There is no point voting with the government on carbon pricing policy, as it will get through without his vote anyway, and he’ll be seen as the reason it got through, according to the shock jocks, etc.
Once it’s passed he can say “I voted with the party, but now that it’s going to be implemented, our (Abbott’s) current position is unworkable for the country and business”.
by george on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:08 pm
Paul_J it depends on what the ultimate goal is of implementing a price on CO2 emissions. If the ultimate goal is to reduce global emissions by some agreed amount over some agreed timeframe then you can’t ignore China, The US and India who are the worlds largest emitters of CO2.
Anything Australia does in the absence of some global framework will have little if any impact on global emissions. Australians generally understand this and to date the government has failed to communicate why we need to move now before a global framework of some kind is in place. I can’t see Gillard winning this debate until they manage to clearly explain “why now and why us?’.
by DavidWH on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:08 pm
Looks interesting…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/james-murdoch-has-been-accused-of-misleading-british-parliament-over-the-extent-of-the-tabloid-hacking-scandal/story-e6frg996-1226099770050
by Diogenes on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:13 pm
The Times wants us to remember the starving….
http://www.boingboing.net/2011/07/21/times-editorial-cart.html
by george on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:17 pm
http://www.future-tech.co.uk/Whats-New/China-plans-to-introduce-Carbon-Taxing-.aspx
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_tax
India has a carbon tax operating. Pretty good for a poor third world country.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-01/india-to-raise-535-million-from-carbon-tax-on-coal.html
by Dee on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:22 pm
shellbell
Here’s one for you if you are around.
Chris Smith on 2GB has good news for everyone he just said on Radio – the Carbon Tax could be ruled unconstitutional by the High Court under section 114 of the Constitution. Something to the effect of no tax being able to placed on monies raised by a State Government Institution.
He is interviewing a Barrister called Brian Pate (?) who has succeeded with former cases on that basis.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:24 pm
I am certain MT would not see it that way. Remember he was on the verge of resigning from parliament because he saw no future for himself – and we know “future” for Malcolm means the top job. The only reason he returned IMHO was that he was persuaded by people within the party that he could still get it.
Also, we know how much patience Malcolm has when he wants something – practically zero. So I think we are in for some interesting times.
by Darn on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:25 pm
Add to the above eg State owned Electricity Plants.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:26 pm
Don’t know if you guys have seen this, but rather funny:
“Rupert Murdoch reveals demonic horns”
http://www.boingboing.net/2011/07/21/rupert-murdoch-revea.html
by george on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:30 pm
[8076 madcyril
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 11:35 am | Permalink
my say
RRR is a community radio station in Melbourne.]is it available on the net
by my say on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Except it isn’t a tax
Fail
by Dario on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
@
@AndrewCatsaras @TurnbullMalcolm Ari, Climate Science is “CRAP”!!!! dont you understand #auspol
3 minutes ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:42 pm
my say, yes:
http://www.rrr.org.au/
you can listen live
by george on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:43 pm
MTBW
Brian Pape who ran the case in the HC opposing the $900 payments.
Dont know the area of the law at all but he only lost 4-3 on that one
by shellbell on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:45 pm
After just viewing “The Nation” I found Arthur Sinodinos was very balanced.
Peter Garrett also impresses in this type of forum.
Mathias Cormann reminded me of Mathias Cormann.
by charlton on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:48 pm
Garbage. I heard Smith’s interview and chuckled at his bouyed enthusiasm (knowing he is to be disappointed).
It’s not a tax – it’s a price on carbon emissions. We all know why we’re calling it a tax, but it’s not, and never will be, a tax for the purposes of s114 (or any other section) of the Constitution.
Chris Smith should google ‘Corporations power’, ‘Trade and Commerce power’, ‘External Affairs power’ and ‘Nationhood power’ – the bumbling moron.
by drake on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:50 pm
thanks george found it
by my say on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:53 pm
http://www.boingboing.net/2011/07/21/rupert-murdoch-revea.html
george it did take me minutes after read the comments to see what it really was
by my say on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:56 pm
drake @8139, it is true, people will believe anything, won’t they?
by george on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:56 pm
More concisely, it’s a permit to pollute. The permits can also be traded or sold. That’s not a tax, no matter whather you come from planet Koozbain 2GB or not.
by Dario on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:57 pm
my say, you need more caffeine – it keeps me alert
by george on Jul 22, 2011 at 2:00 pm
All those people cowering in their homes afraid their STB will explode or whatever need something, anything to cling to that this toxic, nasty tax that will kill puppies will never happen.
They should switch off their radio, pull the curtains back and let in a little sunlight.
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 2:00 pm
And as for the charlatans at 2GB who prey on these people and their insecurities: shame, shame, shame.
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 2:01 pm
It is getting so bad that ordinary people are becoming shock jocks. Just gave a guy who gets 70% of his work from me a spray. He forwards this powerpoint viral email to me. It contains the full gamut of wingnut boilerplate against a background of burning house imagery talking about the worst government in living memory.
I called him and asked him if I was doing business with a brain deadbeat. Did he not realiase that the country is split labor/liberal about 50/50 in the last election and that chances were one-in-two that he would offend somebody with the email. That I was offended that he would thing I was that stupid to swallow the garbage he sent.
If he thought I was so stupid how soon before he offended one of our mutual clients?
Quick and hurried apologies.
The mood in the land is ugly. This is not good.
by JohD on Jul 22, 2011 at 2:02 pm
Dio
They are all coming out of the woodwork now, maybe revenge is served sweet.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/22/world/europe/22hacking.html?_r=1
by Gaffhook on Jul 22, 2011 at 2:03 pm
George,
The benefit of having a camera focused on the right place at the right time. Great find.
Thoroughly deserving of a tweet:
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 22, 2011 at 2:04 pm