Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Things are getting interesting all of a sudden.
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:15 pm
Combet stirs the pot over MT.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/liberals-split-on-climate-change-combet-20110722-1hsbs.html
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:15 pm
drake – Rov Oakeshott’s seat is 300ks up the road from Newcastle. The Nationals held the seat of Lyne for donkeys years and Oakeshott took it off them in 2007 with Labor preferences.
He is a very good member and even as an independent he has done a lot for his seat. The Nats hate it and if things had been different in 2010 Oakeshott would be holding the seat for a long, long time.
He and his family are good people.
by BH on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:15 pm
Bloody hell you have become stupid. How many times Labor has won the seat is completely irrelevant!
If the voters of Lyne wanted a Liberal or a Nat they would’ve voted one in, but a majority of them wanted Oakeshott.
Instead of making up idiotic principles of who independents should support, maybe you should ask yourself why Oakeshott isn’t a Liberal or a Nat?
by ShowsOn on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:16 pm
They haven’t. The point is they had an opportunity of electing a conservative and chose not to. What does that tell you Glen? Did they want a conservative?
by Gary on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:17 pm
we stay up every night and watch and i love the food segment also.
do you think the young german boy will win now, why didnt Cadel go after him last night or why didnt some one, we couldnt work that one out.
where they not fit enough or thought he would slow down. what do you think of Cadels chances now
by my say on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:17 pm
Classic hypocrite. Trying to hold others to higher standards than you observe yourself.
But thats what you do all the time.
by dave on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:17 pm
SK
Yes, it will be very interesting to see how this plays out. I have been waiting months, a bit longer is not going to hurt!
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:18 pm
Lyne is now held by an independent. If voters in Lyne want a National MP again they can vote one in at the next election. Why is this so difficult to understand?
Seriously, what a pointless and circular discussion this is.
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:18 pm
My Say,
I have been tweeting but mostly at night before going to bed. I should be back to normal routines next week so if there is anything you want tweeted just let me know.
Thanks for asking about my cousin, he is doing well. He goes to the specialist in August to start taking the neck brace off and to also commence his physio. He is terribly bored (he is very active by nature, can’t sit still) and is looking to start a training course so if he is unable to continue his normal trade (he is a chippy) he has something else.
But his recovery has been pretty bloody amazing. A testament to the Surgical team at the Royal Brisbane.
by Space Kidette on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:19 pm
Dan, I hope Turnbull agrees to the debate
by george on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:19 pm
victoria,
What was your take on the MT speech?
by Space Kidette on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:20 pm
SK:
How is your cousin with meningitis?
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:21 pm
SK
Great news regarding your cousin. What about the one who has viral meningitis?
My say has been missing your great tweets. So Have I for that matter!
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:21 pm
MT should just ignore Monckton. Monckton is not relevent to this country and what we decide to do about reducing our GHGEs.
Why isn’t Monckton back home railing at the UK PM to abandon carbon pricing there?
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:23 pm
Firstly I don’t listen to 2GB Roy and second I dont call Oakeshott by that name!
I never said he owed anything to anyone! All I was saying was his seat is mostly made up of Conservative voters not Labor voters. I’m not saying he had to choose Tony.
Well he got Katter. Second the others (Windsor and Oakeshott) are former Nats and hate that Party with a passion more than the ALP they were never going prop up the Tories.
No she sold out an election commitment to not have Carbon Tax. She at most wanted just a fixed price ETS and no Carbon Tax before that. She had to do it to please her alliance partners.
Wrong you obviously have no understanding as to the animosity between Windsor and Oakeshott who were both former Nats and detested the Party. Abbott no matter his negotiating skills was never going to end up PM.
One he’s not my guy. I didnt support him in the leadership ballot and I think the Libs could do better with someone else than Tone being PM (if they are elected).
Mindless obfuscations? Can’t you accept people may have views different to your own. Is it too hard to accept? Hey I like Billson but I have no time for thugs. Again you’re making wild assumptions here.
by Glen on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:23 pm
fess,
lol. Me and my sick rellies!
Fess, his diagnosis was changed from Bacterial to Viral Meningitis, which was a much better variety. He is still in hospital but responding well to medication. They are talking about a monday release. Another one who hates to sit still!
by Space Kidette on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:23 pm
I thought he had already left Oz – no?
by george on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:24 pm
confessions@8358
Conservatives think they don’t have to observe the conventions of democracy. If they are voted out, the thinking is the seat is still *theirs*. abbott feels the same with the overall election result.
Total crap.
by dave on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Barnaby Joyce spreading some lies in Tamworth today. He says that increasing the GST would require agreement of all the states.
Actually it would require a federal bill that simply said:
by ShowsOn on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:24 pm
SK
MT knows that the direct action policy will be dropped if they win next election. He can see that Abbott’s position this week is bringing the debate right down, and Labor are struggling to sell the policy. Turnbull wants an ETS. He believes in it and his banker friends are counting on it. So what does he do, snooker his leader on his own position on climate science.
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Thats why the Nats hate him, he does things for the elctorate not just a favoured few.
by castle on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:24 pm
George,
Definitely. Get the popcorn ready for that. However I’ll bet that Abbott will put the kibosh on that before it happens.
However if Not Really A Lord Monckton keeps on insisting……
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:26 pm
SK, last time I had to go into hospital for surgery, the staff asked me if I had any questions – I asked “do you have Wi-Fi?”
by george on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:26 pm
SK:
Well that’s good news! It must be a relief to your family.
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:26 pm
Dave I’m not arguing that the seat is held by an Independent MP.
I’m saying there are more Tory voters than Labor voters in that seat. Surely you can read facts and figures….
2010 Election…
Nat = 29,216
Labor = 11,459
Yes I know Oakeshott is an Indie and yes he had votes from both Left and Right but on balance it is clear there are more Conservative voters in that electorate than Labor ones. That doesnt mean he had to support Tone but for many in that seat they’d feel like he sold out.
by Glen on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:28 pm
Victoria,
Savva is openly talking divisions in LNP land like it is common knowledge. I know if I were a party member and the current leader was behaving the way Abbott is and tearing down the credibility of the party, I would be agitating for his removal.
by Space Kidette on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:29 pm
george,
Can’t keep a good bludger down!
by Space Kidette on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:29 pm
Err yes you did. Once again caught out being *slippery with the truth.* This is what you said -
It is an independent seat. So why call him a *sell out*
by dave on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:30 pm
confessions,
I know I am feeling we’ve dodged a couple of bullets. Could be time for a lottery ticket!
by Space Kidette on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:30 pm
UTTER BULLSHIT
by ShowsOn on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:30 pm
confessions
Agreed. Turnbull does not need to debate Monckton on climate science. after all Abbott confirmed today that he agrees with Malcolm Turnbull that the science of climate change needs to be taken seriously.
No point in having a debate at all!!
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:31 pm
Glen
Please explain how Oakey has sold out the 29,216 Nat supporters who didn’t vote for him?
by gough1 on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:32 pm
Dave
READ THIS…
2010 Election…
Nat = 29,216
Labor = 11,459
It is…it’s never been held by the ALP…The Nats come either 1st or 2nd of PV…The ALP only finished ahead on PV when the Libs and Nats challenged each other…and in the 2010 election the Nats had roughly 20,000 more votes than Labor…Yes it’s held by an Indie but the seat is made up of mostly conservative voters…
by Glen on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:32 pm
SK
Has Savva made any further comments today on the divisions, or are you referring to comments she made in the past few weeks?
by victoria on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:32 pm
victoria,
Not news ones, although I wish!
by Space Kidette on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:34 pm
It’s alarming how little respect today’s conservatives have for our institutions and conventions. Democratic processes, scientific, academic, and judicial institutions, the public service and systems of government. All things that today’s Tories treat with deep suspicion where once they were regarded with respect.
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:34 pm
How many of Oakeshotts 40,000 votes were Nats…we’ll ever know but surely more Ex-Nat than Ex-Labor?
by Glen on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:34 pm
Duck and weave until the cows come home. He won the seat as a independent that makes it an independent seat. Its Oakies call.
You are only squealing because abbott LOST.
by dave on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:34 pm
Glen, point of order. Are you referring to voters who are, by their nature, conservative (eg they wear cardigans and listen to Val Doonican), or voters who voted for a “conservative” (whatever that means)?
by Lynchpin on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:35 pm
Feedback sent to Ben Fordham. I don’t expect it to be read out, and in any event I won’t be listening if it is…
by Burgey on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:36 pm
I don’t care if Tony Abbott didnt win. I dont especially want him as PM…
I wasnt saying it wasnt Oakies call.
by Glen on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:36 pm
You cant argue there were more Conservative votes for the Nats because they Lost! You can never know how many Ex-Nats voted for Oakeshott but clearly based on those figures and the fact it is a rural seat there will be more conservative minded people in that electorate.
I was never arguing that. But this is a rural seats. Rural seats generally have a lot more conservative minded people within them.
by Glen on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:39 pm
The Poms want to chuck him in the Tower upon his return. Defying the house and all.
by MickGCollins on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:39 pm
Burgey, hopefully it gets his blood pressure up reading it
by george on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:40 pm
by confessions on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:40 pm
Yes, Gabriel Gate is brilliant
I think you mean the Luxemburger? It’s honestly touch and go, very hard to say. I think Cadel thought that the rest of the peloton would help chase him down, as I did too.
I really thought Sanchez and Contador in particular were just foxing and wouldn’t help because they just wanted to attack later. But they cracked on the mountain as Evans chased, so they definitely had no legs left.
It will all come down to how much Cadel has left in the tank to maybe gain a little bit of time back on Andy Schleck tonight before the time trial, or if Frank Schleck attacks (which I think he will) whether he can hold him to at least 2 minutes.
In the time trial on Saturday night, I think Cadel ‘should’ win if he has these sorts of time deficits on the others:
Voeckler 1m30s
Andy Schleck 45s
Frank Schleck 2m00s
The rest are gone unless they can put on a 5+ minute gain tonight. Going to be a killer stage!
by Dario on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:41 pm
I wonder when Tony will next be on Alan Jones’ show or Bolt’s? Both have been feverish in their denial of the science, yet their golden boy has done the dirty on them.
by roaldan1000 on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:43 pm
BB
Just listened to the Oakeshott interview – thanks for the link!
How bloody disengenuous they are! No wonder the electorate is in the state it is.
I really like Oakeshott’s direct manner of speech but nothing at all deters the mongrels from their self belief.
Sad really that this is the level to which the media has sunk.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:44 pm
Such good news for all the family, SK. We are so lucky with modern medicine and the hardworking staff in hospitals.
by BH on Jul 22, 2011 at 5:44 pm