Matters related thereto
Roy Morgan has spared the government a new set of poll results this week, presumably holding over last weekend’s face-to-face results for a combined two weeks’ result to be published next week. So here’s some stuff that has accumulated during my recent period of indolence:
• The federal parliament’s Joint Standing Committee of Electoral Matters brought down its report into the 2010 federal election a fortnight ago. One noteworthy innovation is a less pompous report title, “The 2010 Federal Election: Report on the conduct of the election and related matters” replacing the traditional formulation of “Report on the conduct of the (insert year) federal election and matters related thereto”. Antony Green summarises its recommendations here; now that my holidays are over I’ll shortly get around to reviewing it and will have more to say after I’ve fully absorbed it.
• One of the majority report’s recommendations was that the federal government follow the example of New South Wales and Victoria in allowing government records such as drivers licences, vehicle registration and Year 12 school enrolments to be used to automatically update the electoral roll. However, this is opposed in the dissenting JSCEM report from the committee’s Coalition members, for reasons I do not find persuasive. Antony Green has reviewed the impact of such measures in New South Wales since their introduction last year, observing that only 12 per cent of the 70,000 people whose enrolments have been added or updated have taken the trouble to enrol the old-fashioned way for the federal electoral roll. His conclusion: “On the evidence so far, by the time of the next commonwealth election in the second half of 2013, there could be as many as 200,000 voters enrolled for NSW elections and eligible to vote at commonwealth elections who will be missing from the commonwealth roll or be enrolled at the wrong address.”
• Draft electoral redistribution boundaries have recently been published for both our nation’s territory parliaments. Antony Green surveys the results for the Northern Territory here and the Australian Capital Territory here. An ACT redistribution would normally be of minor interest, as the territory is only divided into three electorates for purposes of a regionally based system of proportional representation, but Antony asserts that in this case the changes are radical enough to be of substantial interest, and in particular to put at risk the fourth seat the Greens won at the 2008 election. For the Northern Territory, Antony has calculated new margins for each of the 25 seats, with the caveat that the enormous sitting member factors which result from pocket-sized electorates of 4000 to 5000 voters make party-based margins less reliable than usual.
• There has been much talk lately about the possibility of an incoming Coalition government calling an early double dissolution election should it meet Senate resistance from its efforts to abolish a carbon tax. Tony Abbott’s argument to those concerned about the resulting uncertainty and expense is that opposing its repeal in the Senate would be politically suicidal for a defeated Labor Party, a case pursued by Queensland legal academic James Allan in The Australian.
There was a fair bit of material I had been compiling on Western Australian matters to coincide with a looming quarterly state Newspoll, but I was caught on the hop when it was published a month earlier than I’d anticipated.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Western Australian Politics
Poroti, i will stick to my living doll, she doesnt answer back
by The Finnigans on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:48 pm
diogenes
I daresay that the Judiciary in Norway will make an exception in this case.
Here in Victoria, Julian Knight has been refused parole
by victoria on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:48 pm
JohD
But but dog’s truth is eternal and unchanging ? On a serious note religions can change all they like but Homo sapien sapiens has not and that is the problem and the reality.
by poroti on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:48 pm
Don’t remember that Vic.
Like Martin Bryant’s mother you have to feel for this fellow’s mother and any other family members as well.
Maybe I am silly but surely only someone insane could organise and scrupulously plan such a terrible event.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:49 pm
feeny do you have a link to The Sunday Telegraph column you refer to?
I promise I’ll put my asbestos proof suit and breathing mask on before reading it.
by grantplant on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:50 pm
mtbw
Sorry just to clarify, the Norway killer also was responsible for the car bomb in Oslo that killed seven and injured others. This event was planned.
by victoria on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:51 pm
Gorgeous Dunny,
I’d be delighted if he got in a lot of strife for it. One could surmise that he may have been “very” fortunate to have a Howard favourite running the AFP at the time.
by scorpio on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:51 pm
No one has done this. The crime was committed by A conservative Christian named Anders Behring Breivik.
Absolute idiocy. For absolutely no credible reason you are saying that we should just completely ignore how a person’s religious beliefs – which for some people is a major contributing factor to how they define their identity – should be completely ignored, simply because, well you never really say!
by ShowsOn on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:52 pm
vic
In SA, we have quite a few serial killers like Bevan Spencer von Einem who are often eligible for parole but will inevitably be knocked back (and if they weren’t the Premier would overrule the parole board anyway).
Didn’t they create a special law for Julian Knight to keep him in?
I don’t know if Bryant will ever get out or be eligible for parole.
by Diogenes on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:52 pm
Based on … what? Grimms Fairy Stories?
It is dangerous to get into geographic/cultural generalisations … but if we must, I’d have to suggest that there is more evidence for the reverse. All those countries seem to have a very strong commitment to social democracy and for supporting the most disadvantaged in their community.
During the Cold War they represented a very marked contrast (not a compromise) between the US semi-laissez-faire model and the USSR command economy and totalitarian state.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:52 pm
I did notice but was to well-mannered to comment.
by charlton on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:53 pm
Diog, South Australia is the home of the weirdos. btw, where you are from again?
by The Finnigans on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:53 pm
Diog – I can’t imagine they wouldn’t have a way of making the crimes stretch for his natural life – I know nothing about the process of course, and would never suggest anything untoward, but if he only ended up being prosecuted for the first 80 deaths, and subsequently they ‘discover’ evidence to allow prosecution for the other murders when he comes up for release…
I can’t imagine they wouldn’t modify sentencing law specifically for this case if necessary, I can’t imagine the Norwegian public standing for anything less than permanent incarceration.
by Jackol on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:53 pm
Diogenes
Bryant is not of sound mind. Knight sought parole recently, and knocked back. There is a suggestion that eventually he will be granted parole. I hope it never happens.
by victoria on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:54 pm
not sure if posted before, but the Norwegian murderer had a 1500 page manifesto, extracts can be read here:
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/07/24/norway.terror.manifesto/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
by sprocket_ on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:56 pm
Diogenes
Actually i think knight is due for parole in the next year or so. But the discussion was that the state govt said they would not expect him to ever be released.
by victoria on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:57 pm
Feeny -2262 – absolutely agree
by MickGCollins on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:58 pm
The judge has ordered that he never be released.
by ShowsOn on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:58 pm
Well JohnD the Professor of Criminology at Birmingham City University, UK, David Wilson, disagrees with you;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/23/anders-behring-breivik-oslo-bombing
by grantplant on Jul 24, 2011 at 4:58 pm
shows
I spent five years working for a State MP in the Sydney inner city. The greatest lesson I took from there was just how many mentally ill people are wandering around the city and living rough on the streets.
I would get phone calls telling me that “they are spying on us by looking up the grates in the footpath and spraying poisonous gas through them” or “there are Arab Sheiks phoning me threatening me and wanting to take my leading racehorse.”
I would be loathe to even hazzard a guess about what has motivated this fellow. I think I read he had written a fifteen hundred page document about whatever was going on in his mind.
Let’s just hope that all of those affected by this terrible event are being well looked after and being well cared for.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:00 pm
Any government that allowed von Einem to be released would lose the following election.
by ShowsOn on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:00 pm
Vic
I know it was planned but what was the state of mind of the planner is all I am saying.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:01 pm
grantplant, also the political angle, meaning he blames the Labour centre left Govt. That is why he picked the Labour Youth Camp. he is no nut case.
He knew exactly what he was doing, a cold, calculating killer.
by The Finnigans on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:02 pm
I probably shouldn’t admit this, but all the pictures of the Norway killer remind me of Julian Assange.
by lizzie on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:02 pm
Boerwar
But Bush communicated with God on important matters.
http://www.irregulartimes.com/godspeaksthroughme.html
by BK on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:03 pm
lizzie
There is a passing resemblance.
by victoria on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:03 pm
And it just gets murkier and more ‘sus’ in the hacking scandal in the UK;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jul/23/phone-hacking-police-news-world
by grantplant on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:04 pm
Finns @ 2296;
Yes, absolutely. I suspect he is a cold blooded calculating religious fanatic right wing ‘nut case’.
Lots of cliches there I know, but………………….
by grantplant on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:06 pm
BK
All that hate mongering, slaughter of muslims, axis of evil, and crusading christian death religion stuff.
Mr Bush just had to be a muslim agent provocateur. It stands to reason.
Uh, hang on. Maybe the devil made him do it?
by Boerwar on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:09 pm
And I note Victoria that the ETU is not going to support Gillard over the carbon tax. Perhaps they need to think a little harder.
by fredn on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:09 pm
180 deg turn. It was you who suggested it was his conservative Christianity that was responsible, just like it was their belief in Islam that made them do 911.
same argument- again and again from you. Is Andrew Bolt a Right Wing Christian fanatic? Are all the posters on his blog right-wing Christian fanatics? Does that not tell us that there is something a little more nuanced than a reflective prejudice we have against religion at play here? Is the self proclaimed Jewish atheist webmaster at http://www.Atlasshrugs.com a religious fanatic?
I think people don’t want to consider that the left Zionist-Islamophobia nexus with a dash of anti-homophobia and democracy interventionism, is indistinguishable from the Far-Right, Christian Religious , anti-green, and anti social-justice ring.
I’ll shut up now, instead of responding to red-herring circular attacks that have absolutely nothing to do with my posts.
by JohD on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:10 pm
Who are we talking about here? Abbott? Andrew Bolt?
by fredn on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:10 pm
That – or FoxNews.
Take your pick.
by BK on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:10 pm
Here are the tables for the JWS Research poll of Lalor:
http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/jws-research-110724-lalor.pdf
Note that they first asked about Gillard’s Favourability, the Carbon Tax and Gillard’s Trustworthiness before Voting Intention. Also the 58% 2PP figure comes from JWS asked for the voters preferences. If the primaries are distributed as per the last election the 2PP is ALP 60% LIB 40%.
by GhostWhoVotes on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:11 pm
fredn
They support a price on carbon, but are not convinced that the govt are going to put enough funds into the new energy jobs. Basically, the govt has not made a good case. This especially relates to Hazelwood. Also, the ETU believe they would be better served if not aligned with any political party when it comes time to fight on IR.
by victoria on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:12 pm
Partner, did i do it?
by The Finnigans on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:13 pm
Hmmm. A red herring circular attack? Will have to add that to Mr Abbott’s stunt categories. But what does it mean?
Do red herrings chase their tails like Jack Russells? Is it a biological thing? Or does the devil make them do it?
Was Mr Bush a red herring chasing his tail in Iraq? Was Mr Bush his own worst red herring?
by Boerwar on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:13 pm
We’ll take the 60% but note that the methodology almost certainly reduced the 2PP to 60%.
I bet the devil made them do it.
by Boerwar on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:14 pm
Listen JohnD, the only one creature here on PB who specialises in Red Herring attacks, that’s me. We eat them by the bucketful
by The Finnigans on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:15 pm
Finns
I am feeling insecure. Between the devil dolphin and the demon Jack Russell I don’t have a whole lot of circular red herring room.
by Boerwar on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:15 pm
[GhostWhoVotes
Posted Sunday, July 24, 2011 at 5:11 pm | Permalink
Here are the tables for the JWS Research poll of Lalor:
http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/jws-research-110724-lalor.pdf
The polling seems sane, but the article that was written about the results seems to be a nonsense.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/lalor-deserts-gillard-grim-poll-shows/story-fn6ck45n-1226100416394
58% to labor looks like a pretty good win for Gillard to me.
by fredn on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:16 pm
I don’t think it matters the particular affiliations of someone who commits a crime particularly when they act alone.
It becomes an issue where a number of people gather together and conspire to commit a crime. It doesn’t matter whether they gather under the auspices of the Hells Angels, Islamists, Nazis, Boy Scouts or football team.
Where there is a repeated cases of similar groups committing similar crimes then the organisations need to question themselves or have others do so.
by ifonly on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:16 pm
Disagrees with what? he is “speculating: that the Gunman was a far-Right religious nut. I was speculation he was an Atheist with a political agenda. We were both wrong, and right. He that he was a conservative Christian; I that he has a political agenda.
by JohD on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:17 pm
Mr Abbott spoke with great statemanship when he indicated that he had shrunken testicles.
It is not since the scrotum scratching days of President Johnson that we have had such visionary leadership in the west.
We are saved.
by Boerwar on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:17 pm
Just on murdoch newspapers the australian and the herald sun are being left on the shelves here in Ballarat which has started happening over the last 2 months so circulation must be dropping.
by canasta76 on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:18 pm
Gorgeous Dunny
I have been away for a while and have just caught up. That was reported in the Sunday Mail Brisbane today, but I can’t find it online. That bit about the ‘gimmick not being an offence” was in the article and I have to admit when I first read it I was surprised that it could not be considered an offence.
I have kept the article and will write to Mr Albanese just in case they are not aware of it.
by gayle on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:19 pm
Finnigans
Hey and that is just the politicians
by poroti on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:19 pm
If the Norwegian who committed this act was a Muslim, the press would label him a terrorist, but he is Christian so he is described as a ‘madman.’ Surely anybody who would commit such an act is just a lunatic, no matter what religious affiliation he/she subscribes to.
Just a very sad situation.
by liyana on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:20 pm
Finns
Have patented ‘crusades’. I know it is a bit late but the christians keep raising it whenever they want to do a bit of slaughter.
It must be in their DNA.
I believe that Finns, Boerwar, Fukushima & Co Conglomorate will make significant profits from crusades but it will be erratic. You never know when the next christian decides it is time to take out some bunch of infidels or other.
by Boerwar on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:21 pm
Grantplant 2277
It was either the Sunday Daily Telegraph or the Sunday Mail (here in QLD). It was so vomit inducing I couldn’t finish it, and hence my suggestion about taking these bastards on.
I know it sounds crazy but I can’t be more helpful than that. I’ll keep looking.
by feeney on Jul 24, 2011 at 5:21 pm