Matters related thereto
Roy Morgan has spared the government a new set of poll results this week, presumably holding over last weekend’s face-to-face results for a combined two weeks’ result to be published next week. So here’s some stuff that has accumulated during my recent period of indolence:
• The federal parliament’s Joint Standing Committee of Electoral Matters brought down its report into the 2010 federal election a fortnight ago. One noteworthy innovation is a less pompous report title, “The 2010 Federal Election: Report on the conduct of the election and related matters” replacing the traditional formulation of “Report on the conduct of the (insert year) federal election and matters related thereto”. Antony Green summarises its recommendations here; now that my holidays are over I’ll shortly get around to reviewing it and will have more to say after I’ve fully absorbed it.
• One of the majority report’s recommendations was that the federal government follow the example of New South Wales and Victoria in allowing government records such as drivers licences, vehicle registration and Year 12 school enrolments to be used to automatically update the electoral roll. However, this is opposed in the dissenting JSCEM report from the committee’s Coalition members, for reasons I do not find persuasive. Antony Green has reviewed the impact of such measures in New South Wales since their introduction last year, observing that only 12 per cent of the 70,000 people whose enrolments have been added or updated have taken the trouble to enrol the old-fashioned way for the federal electoral roll. His conclusion: “On the evidence so far, by the time of the next commonwealth election in the second half of 2013, there could be as many as 200,000 voters enrolled for NSW elections and eligible to vote at commonwealth elections who will be missing from the commonwealth roll or be enrolled at the wrong address.”
• Draft electoral redistribution boundaries have recently been published for both our nation’s territory parliaments. Antony Green surveys the results for the Northern Territory here and the Australian Capital Territory here. An ACT redistribution would normally be of minor interest, as the territory is only divided into three electorates for purposes of a regionally based system of proportional representation, but Antony asserts that in this case the changes are radical enough to be of substantial interest, and in particular to put at risk the fourth seat the Greens won at the 2008 election. For the Northern Territory, Antony has calculated new margins for each of the 25 seats, with the caveat that the enormous sitting member factors which result from pocket-sized electorates of 4000 to 5000 voters make party-based margins less reliable than usual.
• There has been much talk lately about the possibility of an incoming Coalition government calling an early double dissolution election should it meet Senate resistance from its efforts to abolish a carbon tax. Tony Abbott’s argument to those concerned about the resulting uncertainty and expense is that opposing its repeal in the Senate would be politically suicidal for a defeated Labor Party, a case pursued by Queensland legal academic James Allan in The Australian.
There was a fair bit of material I had been compiling on Western Australian matters to coincide with a looming quarterly state Newspoll, but I was caught on the hop when it was published a month earlier than I’d anticipated.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Western Australian Politics
Ghost thanks.
by victoria on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:07 pm
Nice
by ShowsOn on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Re news poll,
Good news for Gillard, bound to happen as CC tax was over run by the news of the world and now the shooting.
I do wish team labor a good night sleep after news poll for once.
by rummel on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Its the narrowing!
by paritybit on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:08 pm
OO headline?
No headline.
by BK on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:08 pm
spur212
I was ready for 60/40. Very surprised
by victoria on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:09 pm
Vic
ye of little faith
by gusface on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:09 pm
Rubbish! It is all due to the Yellow Jersey.
by Scarpat on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:09 pm
Shana’s headlines could be one of two:
or
Have a guess.
by gloryconsequence on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:10 pm
Excellent link Frank of the Howard Sattler interview with Julia.
What a class act Gillard is, and some here want her replaced as leader. You guys have got to be joking!
I think it is wrong that brainless dropkicks like Howard Sattler should continually talk down to (when asking a question), and interrupt (when given an answer) the Prime Minister of our country.
They never ever did it to John Howard and they should not do it to Julia Gillard.
Howard Sattler tried every gotcha he could, but that loser got nothing but facts and good policy decisions.
by Centre on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:10 pm
Abbott starting to turn people away, perhaps ?
by MickGCollins on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:11 pm
Well within the MOE if it is just a 2% change.
by Glen on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:12 pm
So did another, who predicted 60:40.
Any improvement at this stage in the cycle is to be welcomed.
by charlton on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:12 pm
It is the shrinking testicles.
by Scarpat on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:12 pm
In the long run i think this will be the case – but its mostly within MoE, except the price on carbon, so i wouldn’t read too much into it yet, wait for some longer term trends.
by paritybit on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:13 pm
Maybe, but note the other things that changed too. Even if opposition is still ahead, the one about support for a carbon price increasing has to be an encouraging sign for them to just keep plugging away.
by rishane on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:13 pm
I prefer to think the glass is half-full.
by charlton on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:13 pm
Told you Victoria, relax, the debate hasn’t even started
by Centre on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:13 pm
glen
of course
but the trend seems across the board
by gusface on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:13 pm
Gusface
I truly did not expect any improvement.
by victoria on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:14 pm
Gillard should now not say boo about the CC tax for the next two weeks and confirm the trend that no one really cares and the package it right, this should smother Abbott. Now if confirmed Gillard needs to then figure out how to remove bob brown from her back and work on being Labor not Green and make a Labor run for the election..
by rummel on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:14 pm
centre
cant wait for the senate
by gusface on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:14 pm
A lot of Pbers have been calling the “turn” 1-2 weeks ago. Another month or so and we’ll see if there’s a trend. Nothing to tell us one way or another at this stage
by george on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:15 pm
centre
btw
ahem i meant the greens action
by gusface on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:15 pm
That interpretation takes the cake.
by charlton on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:15 pm
If you can’t keep your testicles up to size, you can’t run a country!
by BK on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:15 pm
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:16 pm
george
the fact all measures recorded a + for Labor seems to suggest a correction
by gusface on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:16 pm
he has a gift
by george on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:16 pm
Where are the trolls?
by drake on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:17 pm
Good news – may it continue onwards and upwards!
by vitalise on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:17 pm
Abbotts hysteria is starting to wear thin, also, those new adds seem confusing imo, they start by saying that they support action on climate change – so doesn’t that mean they support carbon pricing ?
- just saying
by MickGCollins on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:18 pm
Poppycock!
The people will be told the facts and truth about the carbon scheme. I couldn’t give a rats about the polls.
This debate will be going all the way to the election. Abbott wanted it a referendum, well the Monkey is going to get it.
by Centre on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:18 pm
Dan Gulberry
Do authorities still believe others were involved?
by victoria on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:19 pm
Headlines we’d like to see: “Abbott shows balls; Not big enough says Gillard”
by george on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:19 pm
dghost confirms it was friday to today
by gusface on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:19 pm
Agree but at the least the slide has slowed & may have bottomed.
by charlton on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:19 pm
george
by BK on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:20 pm
The Carbon Tax poll is significant as Newspoll’s question is always phrased “based on what you know” which since it was first asked has gotten: Support 30%, Oppose 60%. A 6 point shift is an excellent sign.
Early days, but if there is a rise in support for the carbon tax in a fortnight …
by spur212 on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:20 pm
“It is the shrinking testicles.”
Tone is just so pervy.
by joe2 on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:20 pm
Well you saw Glen’s response
NOT. HAPPY. JAN
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:21 pm
Tone needs Great Big New Testes?
by drake on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:21 pm
I’m not trying to be negative, would just rather see a longer term trend before breaking out the bubbly. If an upward trend continues, watch for the pressure to be on Abbott. What the heck does he have left in his sh-t bag? Begging?
by george on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:21 pm
TP, evan14, Mod Lib, GP – where are you all?
I’d like to know your interpretation at this very difficult point in the cycle for the Government.
by charlton on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:22 pm
gloryconsequence
I’m guessing “Carbon Tax Support Boosts Labor” …
by spur212 on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:22 pm
New thread.
by William Bowe on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:23 pm
OK, no GP, so:
All you Labor circle jerkers can kid yourselves as much as you like. That is a deadly set of figures.
by Boerwar on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:24 pm
Forget the polls, they have to do the job.
The polls have got a long time to turn. If the job is done well, the polls will turn.
by Centre on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:24 pm
Yes, the bubbly is premature but I’ll still sleep better tonight.
by charlton on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:25 pm
Take away the distraction of Murdochgate, how much different would poll be, considering Abbotts missteps during the week ?
by MickGCollins on Jul 24, 2011 at 10:25 pm