Matters related thereto
Roy Morgan has spared the government a new set of poll results this week, presumably holding over last weekend’s face-to-face results for a combined two weeks’ result to be published next week. So here’s some stuff that has accumulated during my recent period of indolence:
• The federal parliament’s Joint Standing Committee of Electoral Matters brought down its report into the 2010 federal election a fortnight ago. One noteworthy innovation is a less pompous report title, “The 2010 Federal Election: Report on the conduct of the election and related matters” replacing the traditional formulation of “Report on the conduct of the (insert year) federal election and matters related thereto”. Antony Green summarises its recommendations here; now that my holidays are over I’ll shortly get around to reviewing it and will have more to say after I’ve fully absorbed it.
• One of the majority report’s recommendations was that the federal government follow the example of New South Wales and Victoria in allowing government records such as drivers licences, vehicle registration and Year 12 school enrolments to be used to automatically update the electoral roll. However, this is opposed in the dissenting JSCEM report from the committee’s Coalition members, for reasons I do not find persuasive. Antony Green has reviewed the impact of such measures in New South Wales since their introduction last year, observing that only 12 per cent of the 70,000 people whose enrolments have been added or updated have taken the trouble to enrol the old-fashioned way for the federal electoral roll. His conclusion: “On the evidence so far, by the time of the next commonwealth election in the second half of 2013, there could be as many as 200,000 voters enrolled for NSW elections and eligible to vote at commonwealth elections who will be missing from the commonwealth roll or be enrolled at the wrong address.”
• Draft electoral redistribution boundaries have recently been published for both our nation’s territory parliaments. Antony Green surveys the results for the Northern Territory here and the Australian Capital Territory here. An ACT redistribution would normally be of minor interest, as the territory is only divided into three electorates for purposes of a regionally based system of proportional representation, but Antony asserts that in this case the changes are radical enough to be of substantial interest, and in particular to put at risk the fourth seat the Greens won at the 2008 election. For the Northern Territory, Antony has calculated new margins for each of the 25 seats, with the caveat that the enormous sitting member factors which result from pocket-sized electorates of 4000 to 5000 voters make party-based margins less reliable than usual.
• There has been much talk lately about the possibility of an incoming Coalition government calling an early double dissolution election should it meet Senate resistance from its efforts to abolish a carbon tax. Tony Abbott’s argument to those concerned about the resulting uncertainty and expense is that opposing its repeal in the Senate would be politically suicidal for a defeated Labor Party, a case pursued by Queensland legal academic James Allan in The Australian.
There was a fair bit of material I had been compiling on Western Australian matters to coincide with a looming quarterly state Newspoll, but I was caught on the hop when it was published a month earlier than I’d anticipated.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-, Western Australian Politics
So true Thomas Paine.
by It’s Time on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:50 pm
LatikaQT Latika Bourke
With no international linking under Direct Action, Treasury estimates it would cost would be $13 billion in 2020 alone [to the budget.]
10 minutes ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:51 pm
Dave on 609
Exactly Dave exactly
by canasta76 on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:51 pm
briefly
I appreciate your concerns about MJF, and hasten to add that I have very close friends dealing with depression.
But we don’t have any evidence that (a) she was depressed at the time; (b) she is depressed now or (c) she was depressed twelve months ago.
Apparently – now that she’s been arrested – her staff are saying she’s depressed, and we have been told she discussed depression with Andrew Robb over a year ago.
We should treat both statements with caution, given where they come from and the circumstances under which the information was revealed.
With all due respect, ‘depression’ is becoming the catch-all excuse for misbehaviour, in the same way that child abuse was a decade ago.
In this case, it’s also being used to deflect attention from the timing of her alleged crime, and the timing of the revelation.
It all seems far too convenient.
by zoomster on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:52 pm
Confessions,
Okay, but someone with depression can hardly function at all, let alone in full capacity as a parliamentarian. Therefore she should have taken appropriate leave, or if she refused to take that leave, she should have been stood down.
by janice2 on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:52 pm
Gary – 592 – Thanks
by MickGCollins on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:53 pm
Hi everyone
Back from my trip to Melbourne, and I was trying to catch on the more than 1000 posts since Monday night, but thought I would skip straight to this thread.
Having seen little news coverage in the past week, it has been interesting reading about Mr Turnbull and even more surprising that today the CM a has a very flattering and supportiive editorial “Turnbull cuts through hot air on climate”
Together with the other links that hav been provided here, it seems quite a remarkable turn of events.
by gayle on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:56 pm
So if she went to robb a year ago as is stated why didnt robb advise her to take leave.
by canasta76 on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:56 pm
OPT @449
If it really was a choice between total collapse and surrendering to these ugly swine, I’d take the total collapse option.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:58 pm
I am always suspicious of someone/anyone who got into trouble and then claim that he/she/it suffers depression.
It’s like “I’m drunk or God makes me do it” excuse.
Cynicism bastard, yes, i plea guilty My Lord.
by The Finnigans on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:58 pm
The piece by David Williamson pretty much sums up the current situation.
by victoria on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:58 pm
Absolute sheer stupidity! With all the talent on the front bench of the Labor Party you want Turnbull, a former failed Liberal leader not only to join it but lead it.
Truly TP, I’d vote for you as the most WARPED bludger on this site.
Now, what should Turnbull really do?
Become an Independent and fully support the carbon scheme and the NBN.
Turnbull would become a true political legend in the eyes of good and for standing for what he believes.
Turnbull has already been told, by Centre through Finns
by Centre on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:59 pm
I fail to see how “depression” is justification for a crime.
by fredn on Jul 23, 2011 at 12:59 pm
gayle
Hope your trip was okay, considering the circumstamces.
Yes, it has been an interesting week.
by victoria on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:01 pm
canasta76,
Good question and I can think of at least two answers to it, neither or both could be on the money.
by janice2 on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:01 pm
Daretotread – I worked for the wealthiest Establishment firm years ago and the only criminal work they took on was ‘wealthy establishment women in trouble’. No other.
I’ve never looked into it properly but many claimed disillusionment in their marriage, OH not paying them enough attention, kids growing up and making them feel old and inadequate, menopause and a couple ‘the thrill of knowing that they could pay for whatever they wanted but wanting to get away with not paying’.
Boerwar mentioned Dallas Hayden but she was seriously ill with menopause, not depression as I remember it. She really didn’t know where she was half the time. It does affect some women that way unless they get help with medication.
In the latter part of my life , in a rural area, the clientele changed. Shoplifting for most was a matter of wanting the goods but not being able to pay for them, stealing to get cash or it was a way of life. For the women with the ability to pay it was mostly diminished responsibility/menopause.
I think MJF has shown in Estimates and the Senate that she knows exactly what she is doing.
Janice is right – where were her colleagues in the past 12 months. Surely her exhibition with the hokey pokey proved to them that they needed to let her just rest on the Senate benches instead of fronting Estimates etc.
by BH on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:03 pm
And miss the chance to do the Hokey Pokey?
canasta76, you are MAD
by The Finnigans on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:03 pm
victoria
Hi
It was a sad week, but life must go on.
I’m just really surprised that the CM would print something that will stir up trouble for their boy Abbott.
by gayle on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:04 pm
janice2:
I’ve worked with people who suffer with depression. It needn’t require people to stand down from their jobs, or even to take lengthy periods of sick leave. As I’ve said, the condition is entirely treatable, and need not be a barrier to a person functioning at full capacity like anyone else.
But in any case, we still haven’t had it confirmed by Fisher that she has this condition, much less for how long she has been living with it. Until we do, all of this is just speculation.
by confessions on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:04 pm
There is a problem for both parties re: future leaders…
In my view the Liberals face difficult problems and are in just as bad a position as Labor.
Taking Tony Abbott out of the equation who’s left??
1. Joe Hockey – Has been mooted as a possible future leader but never really had his heart in the 2009 push and botched it by saying he’d have a free vote on the ETS. He’s got a young family and doesnt want the job. In addition he has not performed well as shadow treasurer.
2. Malcolm Turnbull – Former leader of the Party. Lost the 2009 Leadership Ballot by 1 vote and has been much maligned ever since by the Party. Performed well as shadow treasurer against Swan regularly getting on top of him in Parliament under Nelson. Holds a vastly different political view on climate change that many Liberals count as their reason for being 60/40 ahead. Obviously wants the top job and has ambition to lead the country unlike Mr Hockey. No doubt any return to the leadership would see the same sniping from the bleachers from the likes of Bernardi et al. Remains a good communicator and has an air of authority and competency and statesmanship that Abbott doesnt have.
3. Julie Bishop – The loyal deputy indeed. From the powerful WA faction of the Liberal Party but leave aside the Libs have never came close to a leader from WA since Holt died and Hasluck ran for the Leadership. Would be the first female leader of the Liberal Party so a plus there. Has poor communication skills and appears to have a wooden personality at least when presenting to the media. Has performed poorly as both shadow treasurer and foreign minister and would probably not remain in Parliament past the next election should the Liberals fail to win in 2013.
4. Scott Morrison / Andrew Robb
The dark horses but neither having near the gravitas or appeal to the wider electorate. Morrison has been chained by the unpopular immigration portfolio and has yet to cut his teeth in a senior portfolio. Mr Robb on the other hand while competent in his work has no charisma or communication skills when it comes to presenting to the media. Maybe a good Deputy Leader but never PM material in my mind.
5. Mal Brough
The much malinged by the Left on PB. Mal Brough should take Slippers seat of Fisher in 2013. In such a case he would obtain a portfolio and could well be ready made leadership material given his good communication skills and being from a State the Liberals are set to dominate in post 2013 politics. An effective and compassionate Minister he remained one of the few Ministers who urged Howard to resign in 2007 and despite losing his electorate (now held by Wyatt Roy LNP) in the meltdown of Kevin07 took with him very little of the vitriol and tarnish from the final years of the Howard government.
In the end this leaves few options and neither of them risk free. Of course Tony Abbott could be PM in 2 years time who knows but if leadership tensions continue and/or Abbott loses the next election…God help the next leader IMHO.
I can’t speak for Labor others are better qualified to do thus but I should point who are the possible candidates to either assume the leadership before the election or after should Gillard lose.
1. Stephen Smith – Competent Minister and good communication whilst a numbers man himself does not have any negative stigma attached to him because of this and despite coming from WA would be a good leader for Labor.
2. Simon Crean – Would have no chance if Labor lost in 2013 but could be drafted before the election which is his only (slim chance) of becoming PM. A safe pair of hands rather like Smith.
3. Greg Combet – Performed well as Minister for climate change and a good communicator. Has not held a senior portfolio for a long period and while he has good leadership experience as the head of the ACTU has not been in Parliament for too long. Would be a candidate should Labor lose in 2013.
4. Bill Shorten – A man who was involved in the coup against Rudd. Has not held a senior portfolio and apparently doesnt have the numbers regardless. Has the desire to be PM but probably wishful thinking at least at the moment.
5. Tony Burke – Having a leader from NSW would be a plus, he’s an excellent communicator and has a dry wit about him in Parliament. He’s regularly held senior portfolios and has extensive Parliamentary experience. He would be a great leader for Labor should they lose in 2013.
6. Wayne Swan – Would probably lose his seat in 2013 if Labor lost and I couldnt see him becoming PM before hand. No chance IMHO.
Something to chew on Bludgers…
I can really only see Brough and Turnbull as future leaders and Burke and Combet for Labor and they’re probably long shots the lot of them.
by Glen on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:05 pm
Bolt getting ‘plenty’ on twitter…eg’s
naontiotami Jack Scanlan
by geeksrulz
Andrew Bolt has just made me angrier than I think I’ve been in a very, VERY long time: http://j.mp/ofxTOd
Erik Veland
ErikVeland Erik Veland
by geeksrulz
Andrew Bolt: F#ck you.
by david on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Glen,
An interesting analysis – thank you.
by drake on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:08 pm
gayle
Abbott has no credibility, but people dont want their lives inconvenienced, so his scare campaign has worked a treat. People dont believe what the govt says and have not been able to convince them about this policy. Turnbull is considered an outsider, so his thoughts are respected. That is where we are in the political cycle. I dont know what Labot has to do to cut through. I know some are saying that when the legislation passes and is implemented, things will turn around. It may be too late to save the furniture then.
by victoria on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Glen
I do appreciate your post today.
by victoria on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:10 pm
david
Bolt is a hack of the lowest order. He literally sickens me
by victoria on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:11 pm
glen # 631 ..is that your work or a cut and paste?
by david on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:11 pm
Glen that was a good post, I’d agree with most of it
by Centre on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:11 pm
victoria
It does appear to be a bit hypocritical of the paper to claim that both sides have been too busy sloganeering. A lot of what Turnbull said, is exactly what the PM, Greg Combet and others have been saying for weeks.
by gayle on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:12 pm
victoria there are literally hundreds on Twitter I have read this morning who agree with you.
by david on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:12 pm
My work.
I just felt like writing something different today.
Enjoy your weekend Bludgers…
by Glen on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:13 pm
confessions – yep, Labor does need very articulate voices but they need the exposure for them to be heard. Turnbull’s barrister training is always on show when he speaks. It’s a great advantage to him. Pity for him that he didn’t use some of that training to alert him to Godwin, Abetz and the OO’s use of false emails.
by BH on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:14 pm
this from Pebbles. He is spot on.
by victoria on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:14 pm
david
What has Bolt written about today? We are very lucky that he only gets one column a week in tomorrows paper, but it will be from today’s article down south.
I look at the headline to see what particular attack against the government he is choosing this week.
by gayle on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:15 pm
Glen @ 631,
Labor has an able and competent leader thank you. You can speculate as much as you like with the Liberal leadership – just leave Labor to Labor.
by janice2 on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:16 pm
Glen
Well writing something different has been appreciated
by victoria on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:17 pm
Well done then, long may you feel like writing something different, enjoy your weekend also
by david on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:17 pm
Why is it that when the MSM finally concedes that criticism of the Liberals is warranted – they blame BOTH parties?
It’s absolute crap!
The only party guilty of sloganeering is the one led by ABBOTT.
by Centre on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:17 pm
Janice I was pontificating about (if she is removed as leader – though unlikely I think or should Labor lose in 2013)…
by Glen on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:18 pm
Yeah, like I said. Because of her political affiliation, you just dismiss out of hand the possibility that she may be unwell.
There are two things to say about this. First, it is just plain politically-based bigotry. Second, what you are saying to people who are in fact unwell and do things that are destructive to themselves and those around them is “You are just a waster. F-off!”
by briefly on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:18 pm
According to Latika’s tweets, the PM has given a presser on the Norway massacre on ABC24
by victoria on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:18 pm
Glen – A good post – well done
by dave on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:19 pm
Please ignore my post regarding Bolt. I refuse to open a link to the HS and now realise the subject of his article.
by gayle on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:20 pm
by victoria on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:22 pm
gayle Bolt leapt in when the news of the Norwegian massacres came through and wrote whoever was responsible were those nasty muslims…long before the culprit or at least one of them was caught and turns out to be a Norwegian citizen, 32 yrs of age, blonde usual Nordic features…no sign of an apology from Bolt…typical and the twitterspere has responded to him with a vengence
by david on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:22 pm
by victoria on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:22 pm
Glen
I know Glen, and I was just saying I am still optimistic about 2013.
by janice2 on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:22 pm
spere = sphere
by david on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:23 pm
You are jumping to conclusions, BB. I am not a Liberal. In your own way, you are exhibiting the same kind of knee-jerk irrationality as any shock-jock broadcaster. “Live with it”….pure Alan Jones style dismissal of another point of view.
by briefly on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:23 pm
by victoria on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:24 pm
Courier Mail editorial with the usual gratuitious head-kick at Labor for being as bad as the Coalition on CC.
I’ve lost count of the number of times Gillard has called for calm and reasoned debate on Climate, and a stop to the anti-science (and scientists) rhetoric. Gillard is not going around saying whole cities and industries will be wiped off the map. She’s not denying the science. She’s embracing it and accepting it. She’s not trash-talking the economy to the point where it has become a self-fullfilling prophecy. She’s trying to be positive. She, like Turnbull, points out that China is doing a lot to combat climate change. She notes that we are the highest polluters per capita. She’s not sending slogan-chanting, placard-waving shills to supermarkets to ambush Tony Abbott.
To single out Turnbull as the sole voice of reason in all this is a gross misrepresentation.
It’s OK for him to go to some business lunch and give a speech which is then reported, not so much for the logic and reason it contains, but mostly in the context of its being a direct challenge to Abbott… in other words as just another float in the political parade.
If Gillard confined herself to business lunches and set-piece confabs of stakeholders and hangers-on, she’d be criticised for being elitist. So she goes to supermarkets and gets criticised for being populist. She goes to both and she’s labelled as “desperate”.
The noteworthy aspect of Turnbull’s speech is not that it is anything new that he is saying, it’s that this is the first time the media have bothered to acknowledge that reason is required, and to take it into account.
The banality and triviality of the current debate is not down so much to Gillard, but to the way it’s being reported: uncritical, shallow, lazy and cynical.
One example: Monckton the other day was spouting absolute bullshit in his debate. What did journos do? Did they come back at him with facts and figures? No, because they don’t have any facts or figures.
Instead, they tried their usual lazy tactic – gotchas – which require little or no research or preparation. They lined up with variations on the same theme: “Can you sit in the House of Lords or not?”. Monckton rightly rejected their feeble attempts and then quoted mind-numbing strings of figures and statistics that I doubt even he understood or could justify. The journos just sat there licking their wounds. The “debate” was scored a resounding win by 2GB and 2UE, and for once I agree with them. Monckton wiped the floor with our lazy, sensation-obsessed media. Their pathetic questions were batted away like the underarm full-tosses they were.
The significance of the Turnbull speech is that at last someone on the other side of politics has decided enough is enough. This, in itself, could reasonably be cited as proof that Gillard is finally cutting through, is finally putting pressure on the Coalition to put up or shut up, that at last she is getting results, and she has for the first time forced a very senior and respected Opposition member out from behind the rock he’s been hiding under. She’s emboldened Turnbull, giving him the courage to follow his conscience and at least present a pitch for reason in the current climate debate.
Sitting beside the plethora of Labor rats that have come out of the woodwork in the past week, we now at last have a Liberal rat. Gillard is no longer alone in trying to beat some sense into the debate. For the media to blame her for not being able to do so thus far is more a reflection on them and their nihilistic agenda, than on her.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 23, 2011 at 1:24 pm