Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.
We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.
UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
What we are seeing is Howards Legacy to Australia.
by MickGCollins on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:25 am
Oh and Judi Moylan showed her true colours when it came to the Northam Detention Centre – she was front and centre at public meetings called to oppose it’s consrtruction.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:26 am
I have been away a few days – too hard catching up – too tired.
Well the predicted shift is manifested in shifted polls. Still chicken entrails all the same. Encouraging though.
Loved the dog and Julia picture for the Newspoll data. Cycling bores me – sorry!
I said awhile ago – as a novice – that there were a lot of soft opinions around re: the pricing of carbon – 20% undecided etc. They just need to be convinced and they want to be convinced.
Now watch the next phase of anti-carbon hysteria – let’s call it EXTREME ANTI CARBON TAX!!!!!!! They are desperate now. The reawakening of the Wilkie stuff is just the beginning.
Need to crash – someone explain why I need to work for living? Oh, don’t bother – I just found the pile of bills that came while I was away…
by Gweneth on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:26 am
I have been away a few days – too hard catching up – too tired.
Well the predicted shift is manifested in shifted polls. Still chicken entrails all the same. Encouraging though.
Loved the dog and Julia picture for the Newspoll data. Cycling bores me – sorry!
I said awhile ago – as a novice – that there were a lot of soft opinions around re: the pricing of carbon – 20% undecided etc. They just need to be convinced and they want to be convinced.
Now watch the next phase of anti-carbon hysteria – let’s call it EXTREME ANTI CARBON TAX!!!!!!! They are desperate now. The reawakening of the Wilkie stuff is just the beginning.
Need to crash – someone explain why I need to work for living? Oh, don’t bother – I just found the pile of bills that came while I was away…
by Gweneth on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:26 am
So good I just had to say it twice!
by Gweneth on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:27 am
I didn’t forget this at all. In fact I attacked Turnbull at the time over his constant dog whistling in QT.
Turnbull obviously knew he was on shaking ground over the CPRS so was blowing the dog whistle as loudly as he could in QT to try to keep the right of his party onside. But that should be considered one of Turnbull’s biggest missteps.
by ShowsOn on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:28 am
fulv
cheers for that
by gusface on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:29 am
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:30 am
fess shows
malcolm ended up unleashing forces he couldnt control?
by gusface on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:30 am
I’m shocked that she has allowed herself to be paired out on several votes on asylum seeker issues.
If she had principle she would just go and vote with Labor anyway.
by ShowsOn on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:31 am
briefly
Your thoughts about the government’s appalling repudiation of human rights – following Howard into the sewer – strike a personal chord with me. I feel diminished as an Australian citizen when we can treat desperate displaced human beings as political pawns in a meaningless political dance.
by jaundiced view on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:31 am
TRUCE
they dont know what a truce is
maybe the fibs should come here and obvious a real truce
by gusface on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:31 am
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:31 am
I will crash after leaving this picture that a young friend sent me:
http://liol.deviantart.com/art/Greed-108458360
Ciao!
by Gweneth on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:32 am
Well, it tells you something about moderate Liberals trying to appeal to the majority Right of the party. They may think they are being smart and massaging their base to retain support, but the wacko Right will just eventually turn on them anyway.
by ShowsOn on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:33 am
She was twice threatened with replaced with former Howard Friendly supporters.
She is now a good little liberal.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:34 am
jv
Why so sad and well, unintelligible
by gusface on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:34 am
Sorry if you misunderstood, but I wasn’t accusing you, merely getting the historical record sorted.
While I’m pleased to see MT destabilising Tone’s leadership, it should never be forgotten that he got into the same gutter on refugees. I agree that it was one of his most unfortunate missteps.
by confessions on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:36 am
Shows
Howard still is the puppetmaster
by gusface on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:36 am
ShowsOn
Why? What principle does Labor stand for on asylum seekers, unless standing up for racist xenophobes is a principle?
by jaundiced view on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:37 am
No apologies needed. I Knew it was not aimed only at me, but I was guilty as charged.
In addition, don’t expect such contrition from me in future. I generally do not agree with your opinions!?
by Dr Phibes on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:37 am
phibes
thank god for small mercies
by gusface on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:39 am
Interesting! Wonder how the polls would go with the combination of the carbon price being better explained and open tensions amongst the Liberals…
by rishane on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:39 am
Except the moderate Libs of which he is a factional member.
The only ones with any shred of credibility are Coonan, Troethe and the other Senator whose name escapes me. Coonan resigned from the front bench when Abbott was elected while the other two crossed the floor to vote for the CPRS.
by confessions on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:39 am
Cheap point or not, I think Breivik’s views on Howard are newsworthy and of interest to Australian’s. We spend endless posts here complaining about Murdoch, Alan Jones etc… and the kind of bile they generate… and Howard had the children overboard. And this terrorist clearly thought his targets were political.
I know I won’t be able to resist mentioning Breivik had a high opinion of Howard whenever the topic comes up.
by Tobe on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:40 am
Gusface
Sorry for the lack of clarity. Any genuine sadness should be reserved for the desperate asylum seekers arriving here who we continue to abuse.
by jaundiced view on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:40 am
fess
the fibs ceased being moderate the day P georgiou lost heart
by gusface on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:41 am
I’m glad you are still upright, gusface. Howard corrupted this place, alright. He set everything slightly askew, so that what had looked not square, well, by some sleight of logic or argument, by some optical or semantic mischief, was taken to be true and fair square and, well, not lopsided at all. He set aft where port had been and replaced values with bank balances, and then replaced the truth with cunning fears-within-lies. Life was simple then. He was evil and I was not. But he has not left us yet. The past has returned.
by briefly on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:41 am
Well, let’s keep this in mind at around the same time Rudd was doing his best to widen the divisions among Liberals over climate change, so perhaps Turnbull saw it as a chance to do same to Rudd on asylum seekers.
This is one of the terrible disadvantages of our adversarial system. Sometimes the moderate and bipartisan position crowded out by partisanship and cheap political point scoring. So issues that should be dealt with and forgotten become the source of seemingly endless debate that far outweigh their over all importance to the development of the nation.
Pricing carbon pollution and dealing with asylum seekers; debates that have gone on for, respectively, 5 and 10 years, are two prime examples.
by ShowsOn on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:41 am
Do they mean the finance portfolio? Or the Treasury portfolio? Or financing of the party itself?
by ShowsOn on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:42 am
tobe
fair enough
but to what end?
to somehow tangentially link howard et al to the norway thing?
that is a tad intellectually stunted
by gusface on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:43 am
Australia would be a better place had the Liberal moderates stood up to Howard in 2001. It would only have taken about 5 of them to combine with Andren and the ALP to be able to censure the Government and defeat bills.
by Tom the first and best on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:45 am
shows
the fibs are
a) in about 2.5 mil debty
b) about 25 mil
c) about 250 gazillion in debt
guess which one was hogwarts estimate
by gusface on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:47 am
Ps Gus you and I are as one in terms of the Howard legacy: Long term scum. Now to bed.
by Gweneth on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:48 am
Fair point. Labor have to take responsibility for that episode, esp given that MT was the most likely Liberal leader to be amenable to emissions reduction legislation than any other. A shame he couldn’t deliver his partyroom though.
by confessions on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:48 am
The Howard government had to withdraw two immigration bills from the Senate in, I think, 2006 because, from memory, three Liberals said they were going to cross the floor so they wouldn’t pass. Judy Moylan, Russel Broadbent and Petro Gergiou had earlier crossed the floor and voted with Labor to oppose the bills when they were voted on in the House.
I think two of the senators were Judith Troeth and Russel Trood.
Basically they were withdrawn for political reasons simply because the Government didn’t want them to be voted down.
by ShowsOn on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:49 am
fess
there was that famous photo of joe leaving howards place by the backdoor
it has been speculated that howard convened a few meetings before the abbott ascension
by gusface on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:50 am
RE Moylan,
Read and learn:
http://www.tvaus.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=14282
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:50 am
thats the one
by gusface on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:51 am
1834
I seem to remember speculation that had the leadership vote been after the by-elections had delivered their new MPs then there would have been no change.
by Tom the first and best on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:51 am
No idea. But apparently in 2007, an ACTUAL member of the House of Lords handed the Libs a donation of 1 million pounds.
Why the hell does Australia have laws that allow foreigners to mess with our political affairs in that way?
by ShowsOn on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:52 am
I agree Gusface,
But in the context of the language of hate currently being peddled by the shock jocks I think Breivik is a reminder of where such bile can lead. I would like to think public broadcasters might think twice before suggesting political leaders they disagree with be dumped at sea.
But I’m not holding my breath for restraint on their part.
by Tobe on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:52 am
1835
2006 is not 2001.
It was more needed in 2001.
by Tom the first and best on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:53 am
For a self-professed constutiional lawyer,
by charlton on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:54 am
shows
sorry
about 25 mil
over the next five yr peiod
funds arent recurrent
there is serious bottom line problems
by gusface on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:54 am
Gus:
Howard’s grubby mits are all over today’s Liberal party. They were then, and they are now. Seeing him receiving his accolades from the Lib faithful at the 2010 election night party spoke volumes. Tone’s his boy.
by confessions on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:55 am
Both of whom have retired from the Senate.
Sensible, moderate Liberals are becoming rarer and rarer.
by confessions on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:57 am
{Plushoward’s speech at that Chinese Fundraiser in Bennelong.
And how Howard was feted as a Rockstar at my local shopping centre when he did a walkabout with Ken Wyatt.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:57 am
Another reason Labor needs to win the next election is that if they don’t it is quite possible that Abbott would make Howard G.G.
Seriously, there’s no bigger gift that the Liberals could give him.
by ShowsOn on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:58 am
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 26, 2011 at 12:58 am