Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.
We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.
UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Mithrandir:
You’re not wrong there. What a bloody travesty that case is – a mother convicted of homocide by vehicle because her son was run over by a drunk-driver when they were crossing the road. Sheer lunacy.
by Fiz on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Pray tell us, william where TBS went wrong in his description of any of them.
Does La Stupend’a face not get screwed up as she trots out her Gillard Condemnation Of The Day?
Is Nikki Savva not fair game for personal observations, seeing as she is so fond of them herself? Earlobes, anyone?
Is not Crabb’s actual job to be the “color girl” at ABC on-line, on radio and on TV? If not, she sure does a lot of giggling for a serious journalist (unless you exclude the very professional piece she penned the other day about staying in bed).
And lastly to Albrechtsen… why is it misogynistic to label her as a “young fogey”?
TBS was about as vitriolic as any of them on just an ordinary day, much less when they decide to get really stuck into someone.
On the male journos, I have no comment other than to ask if you can dredge up one saving grace for any of them, other than that they are very well paid, considering the rubbish they write.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:21 pm
That’s not a good thing, BB.
by nappin on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:23 pm
Depending on your point of view, it could be a saving grace.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:24 pm
BB, I can’t say it surprises me to see that a person being an immature and vindictive jerk rouses feelings of solidarity in you.
by William Bowe on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:25 pm
This remarkable message today, from the poison pen of Brian Loughane at the Liberal Nerve Centre, dropped into my in-box:
“Remarkable” because it did not mention Pink Batts or School Halls once.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:28 pm
William Bowe,
That’s not to say that they might be right though!
by scorpio on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:28 pm
No Chris, it’s not a sign that Australia is a great democracy, it’s a sign that the guard doesn’t want to risk his job because he let a journalist sweet talk him in to letting someone through security without being checked!
by Fiz on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:28 pm
BK @ 2220
I think her name is Ashleigh Gillon, but she is certainly a twerp, cut from the standard FoxNews blonde bimbo template now used by SkyNews.
Ill trained, illiterate and innumerate, she was a positive embarrasment on Election night last year in her profound ignorance of the political and parliamentary processes. How on earth does one so unqualified retain a position in broadcasting? We can only surmise that she is related to Stokes or Murdoch, or that she has some other arcane attributes beyond measurement by the mere mortals who have to endure her prattling nonsense.
by The Big Ship on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:29 pm
Gee, William, for someone who was described as merely “a student” by that other redoubtable OO scribblette, Caroline Overington, you sure are forgiving.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:30 pm
ABC NewsRadio doing the “Federal Opposition leader, Tony Abbott says …” routine.
by Cuppa on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:32 pm
WB @ 2249
Apologies, William. perhaps I’ve been away too long and forgotten the rules of civil discourse on your well managed forum. I’ll attempt to temper the alleged misogyny, but that was not my intention.
by The Big Ship on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Oh, Labor suffers from “TDD – Truth Deficit Disorder”, according to the ABC (via Abbott).
by Cuppa on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Thank you, TBS.
by William Bowe on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:36 pm
Surprised to hear the Howard reference in the manifesto was getting coverage on the ABC news. No mention here in WA that I’ve heard. Don’t know if Kim Jordan is still the News Director and has the final say?
by hairy nose on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:38 pm
Whichever way they swing it, the Boat People thing is going to recede over the next few months.
Pointing out how “queue jumpers” are hard done by in Malaysia won’t cut it with the Liberal Heartland, fortunately or unfortunately.
Labor now needs to get off the deportations and start talking up the Happy Campers From Burma who are soon to grace our shores.
Whichever way you look at it, Malaysia is a proper country and Nauru is not. Labor should hammer that point home relentlessly. Incidentally, I would not like to be a Nauruan politician looking for a handout right now.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:40 pm
No great loss by the sounds coming from the NPC today, Chris Uhlmann. Why should we waste taxpayerss funds on this bloke. The ABC has had more than its % of CC deniers in the past 2 weeks – an imbalance if you ask me.
by BH on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:42 pm
Mmmmm….Surely, the media must laugh when statements & accusations of this type are delivered by Rabbott????
Has the white washing of Rabbott been sooooooo successful?
by Dee on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:42 pm
Some happy news..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kelly-rigg/climate-deniers-campaign-bbc_b_908288.html
And from the report on the BBCs science coverage..
by cud chewer on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:43 pm
Bushfire Bill @ 2251
Thanks for the support, old son, but in this case I’ll defer to forces of moderation greater than myself, and toe the approved line from now on, as I don’t want to end up in the sin bin for conduct unbecoming.
by The Big Ship on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:45 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2810818.html
This is really on the ABC website
by Nate The Great on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:45 pm
Labor via Bill Shorten is still doing great things for people with disabilties. If he can get the NDIS going he deserves a medal.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/disability-plan-to-free-new-workforce/story-fn59niix-1226100936885
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Dee,
If they thought about it for even one split second they’d have to see that what he’s doing is projecting his own attributes onto his opponents. He does this all the time. The media, if they were carrying out their role diligently, would call him on it. But on their past performance we know they won’t.
by Cuppa on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:48 pm
And on the same website is the current piece by regular contributor, ex-Howard Minister, Peter K Reith.
by Cuppa on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:51 pm
The Big Ship,
It’s not so bad TBS.
William could always arrange to send in Frank to keep you company!
by scorpio on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:53 pm
I don’t think Ashley Gillon is necessarily biased.
I just think she is a naturally dumb blonde who does not research her work well enough, and it comes across in spades every time she opens her mouth.
She is a lazy journalist, and the points she raises are so childish and amateurish, a first year journalism student would be surely embarrassed!!
by feeney on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:53 pm
My concern is that he’ll be got at even in isolation; but let’s hope Norway has a better record than, say, Australia – eg, Carl Williams.
His profile seems to fit the failed Austrian painter who penned a best seller whilst doing time.
I personally don’t think water-boarding will be necessary in Breivik’s case, for sociopaths usually like to bathe in the publicity of their acts – delusions of grandeur I think the professionals call it.
You may have a point about a ‘unified’ church. Bush II dog-whistled that end when using the word “Crusade.”
I think getting into his head will be very helpful to build a profile of how such a person evolved into a mass murderer. Whilst I don’t pretend to be on top of this matter, Breivik is on the face it very unusual, in that he meticulously planned his carnage over a number of years with such precision that no one suspected his intentions. Or, if someone did, the authorities weren’t alerted of such.
Others have acted similarly -Timothy McVeigh, for example. But in McVeigh’s case he gave quite a few explicit hints of his plan & attempted to avoid detection; whereas, Breivik, on the limited evidence I’ve seen, gave no such hints & being caught appears to have been part of his plan.
The truth probably is: it’s nigh on impossible to prevent what has occurred in Norway. Law enforcement can only be proactive to a degree; it’s mainly reactive.
Gun control could be tightened but like drugs, there’s a huge black-market, even in Australia.
by charlton on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:54 pm
Nate The Great,
Yeah, the Monsoon season in the far north, tends to unbalance some people.
Why, it even had Abbott visiting a coal mine that is actually a Nickle refinery, speaking at a half empty hall in Mackay that was booked out and is today discussing the live cattle trade in Central Queensland that doesn’t even have “any” live cattle export trade.
Yeah, the world really “has” gone mad!
by scorpio on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:59 pm
I can just see a bevy of Australian journalists chasing down leads on refugees being mistreated in Malaysia only to say ‘oh, you’re just one of the 90 000 who were already here, not one of the 800 sent back, no one cares that -you’ve- been mistreated, next!’
Having said that, who can argue that there won’t now be plenty of attention paid to the treatment of -all- refugees in Malaysia, and that this can only make life a bit better for all of them?
by Jackol on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:59 pm
One thing to remember with the slightly improving polls is that we aren’t talking about converting rusted-ons.
Many of those who have changed their minds (6% of 12 million voters being a handy 720,000 in the past fortnight) would have been previous believers in CC action. They are simply being reminded that they were once on-side and that it’s OK to come back onboard.
Likewise with any recalcitrants who toyed with voting for the Coalition who have swung back (if to a lesser extent).
I see what’s happened, or what looks like has happened in the past two weeks as more of a reconciliation than a mass conversion. It’s not like Catholics have suddenly become Protestants. It’s more like some who have drifted away from the Church have started going back to Mass on Sundays, or are at least considering it.
What they see on one side is a gracious Prime Minister, very hardly done by in recent months, vilified, threatened and treated as disposable rubbish fit only for a chaff bag, stick to her guns and keep smiling through it all.
On the other hand they see the ranting, grimacing Abbott, foretelling doom and gloom for all – whole towns wiped off the map (who’d buy real estate, or a small business in Whyalla this week?), entire industries consigned to the scrap heap, retail in an unrecoverable tail spin all down to a Carbon Price that hasn’t been legislated yet, a Flood Levy and rising interest rates that aren’t rising that hasn’t (according to its millionaire CEOs who would otherwise need to explain why the companies they are in charge of have tanked). No positive waves there, not even a glimmer of them on the horizon.
People only have so much time for hatred and mockery. In the end they want to see something other than misery predicted for them, and theirs.
Once upon a time most of them thought a Carbon Price was a good idea. Once upon a time many of them voted for Labor. It’s OK for them to forgive, shake hands and come back to the fold. It’ll take more than just a couple of weeks, but I think it can happen. Fickle lot that they are, the voters need a bit of sunshine in their lives, not the relentless squalor that the Coalition has to offer, and with no policy alternatives to it, either, other than mad promises and Magic Puddings.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 26, 2011 at 2:59 pm
This columnist from from Ottowa is tacking the presumption that Breivik is insane and why people are hoping he is some kind of nutter and not a ‘normal’ human being who subjugated his feelings so he could commit that atrocity.
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/mobile/story.html?id=5156975
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:01 pm
Gillan is not the only one on Sky who doesn’t do proper research. Gillan refuses to challenge much at all the Opposition says. Is she scared of Hartigan, the CEO.
The little darkhaired girl who follows the PM around is not to good at it either. She seems unable to grasp policy issues properly so we end up with convoluted garbage after press conferences. Just lucky that Sky do show the pressers in full so that you can actually get the gist of the whole thing.
They seem to take their orders from the producers via the earplugs.
Has anyone heard where LaTrioli is going yet?
by BH on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:04 pm
What in God’s name does the colour of Ashley Gillon’s hair have to do with anything?
by William Bowe on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:05 pm
Oh dear, Madam hatred gets nasty, again…
malaysian arrangement…..what’s in it for the Government?
By ABC’s Annabel Crabb
The final asylum seeker deal between Malaysia and Australia reads like a prenup for the world’s most emotionally-asymmetrical marriage.
The Australian Government’s political need radiates from every page.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-26/crabb-malaysian-prenup-whats-in-it-for-the-government/2810988
by david on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:08 pm
The amount of melanin present in the hair?
by Cuppa on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:12 pm
I would urge all PB’ers not to click on her link. It’s just like a troll. Don’t feed it.
by Dario on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Which god would that be?
by Dario on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:13 pm
At least the readers demonstrate by their comments that they see right through the pap that poses as reasoned, scholastic enlightenment!
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2810818.html
by scorpio on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Doesn’t Crabb mean ‘what’s in it for the 4,000 extra refugees coming here’ and I notice she’s wary of taking comments on this.
I wonder if Crabb is aware of the cost of the Nauru policy which the Opposition also conveniently forgets.
by BH on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:15 pm
a propos of nothing in particular, does anyone remember the series of articles by Glenn Milne informing his readership that the true government of Australia consisted of a sinister cabal of Ipswich real estate agents and second-hand car dealers who had Kevin Rudd in their Svengali-like thrall?
I don’t know hoe, exactly, this popped into my head, but it had something to do with reading the Wikipedia article on Eric Abetz, which mentioned en passant that he was in it up to his eyeballs with Godwin Grech, using a Senate Inquiry to launder the latter’s scurrilous mistruths. During the Grech Affair is when the Ipswich Connection (apparently) first came to light.
Why was I reading about Abetz? Because I watched him condemn the wonderful ABC Science Unit on Lateline last night, and I wanted to look up the name of his great-uncle (SS-Brigadeführer Otto Abetz, as it turns out).
I thought to myself, while watching Lateline, that someone whose Uncle Otto condemned French Jews to death camps during the war (and served 20 years for it) should be fairly careful about who he himself condemns.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:16 pm
why didnt his minders pick a smaller venue, he must feel quite strange talking to a near empty hall and WHY didnt more turn up
by my say on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:17 pm
BB
I have long suspected that many of them are 18-25 year olds who became very disillusioned with Rudd and then Gillard. I suspect many will never come back.
by Lynchpin on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:18 pm
William, she’s a dumb blonde, to use a well-known term of many years.
Hair colour is not the relevant issue, I know, but it sure as hell helps to reinforce my point about her being dumb and lazy.
by feeney on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:19 pm
Watch Fox News, William. (Warning: have chuck bucket handy at all times, not suitable for children). They have a proclivity for blondes of a slightly busty nature.
Sky News is very similar to Fox News. Same small audience, same huge footprint (ever seen a press conference they haven’t covered), same loss-making business plan, same blonde “look” in their female presenters. Sure there are exceptions, but they are very much the exception.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:20 pm
We’re all entitled to our views, but personally I think that age group is the least likely to be set in their political ways, and actually the most likely to ‘come back’ as you put it.
by Dario on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:22 pm
Came across this amazing article by Anna Starrrose courtesy of Latika Bourke, opened my eyes even further….
http://annarose.net.au/2011/07/22/fear-and-loathing-in-australian-politics/
by david on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:22 pm
They did pick a small venue, my say – 150 seats. That’s part of the whole hilarious event. I posted the details of the Mackay event earlier, so won’t do it again. Suffice is to say that the ABC presenter, Kim Kleiden, certainly placed TA under a bit of pressure and he failed badly, resorting to a direct dig at Kim, which in itself, was quite silly (he suggested she should visit a farm, like he has, one day … she lives just out of Mackay in a rural area and in one of Australia’s largest cane farming regions).
by nappin on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:23 pm
If a journalist is so ‘dumb and lazy’ then you should easily be able to criticize her work for its obvious failings … resorting to name calling doesn’t help your argument, and has more than a whiff of misogyny and hypocrisy about it.
by Jackol on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:23 pm
Crabb:
As opposed to the Philosophers All, they who so sagely and wisely run the Liberal Party.
Annabel should have stayed in bed. Those who predicted her reversion to type within a day or so, youse can collect your winnings at the door.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:24 pm
I hope so, but it is a formative age. Of course, my observations are based on what I hear in the office tea room, so take it with a grain of salt.
by Lynchpin on Jul 26, 2011 at 3:24 pm