Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.
We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.
UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
We have created a monster.
For years, all and sundry has complained that no-one is capable of saving money anymore.
As soon as commonsense prevails & people do hang onto their dollars the business sector screams blue murder.
by Dee on Jul 26, 2011 at 4:52 pm
It’s an indictment on Howard that his actions would be endorsed by Herr Breivik.
Of course, Howard can’t be personally blamed. But, for crass political gain, he used the plight of asylum seekers to enhance his election chances, and it appears his dog-whistles reached farther afield.
That’s why those in prominent positions should temper their rhetoric, as sociopaths like Breivik take notice of them – the evidence is almost incontrovertible.
As for Pell, his comparisons between Christianity and Islam are best provocative; at worst, a clarion call for Jones et al to further incite hatred between two of the World’s great religions.
But the real frightening point: Pell’s & Abbott’s symbiosis.
by charlton on Jul 26, 2011 at 4:52 pm
That’s how the circlejerk works.
by Two Piece Feed on Jul 26, 2011 at 4:52 pm
Glad you could join us…..
by nappin on Jul 26, 2011 at 4:54 pm
You are not alone. I believe the corner was turned when the CT details came out. It knocked the opposition off course because it showed most of their claims were inflated hysteria, and made the media to look at the alternative scheme.
by confessions on Jul 26, 2011 at 4:54 pm
So you’re basically here to stir and not contribute. What’s the definition of a t roll again?
by Gary on Jul 26, 2011 at 4:55 pm
evan14
by Scarpat on Jul 26, 2011 at 4:58 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/world/glenn-beck-in-firing-line-after-comparing-norway-shooting-victims-to-hitler-youth-20110726-1hxwn.html
Apologies if already posted. What class acts they are.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 26, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Pbers, and interesting graphical representation of debt under two different US Presidents.
Under Bush Mark II, 3.2 TRILLION dollars was spent on wars and tax cuts. Nice
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/07/the-chart-that-should-accompany-all-discussions-of-the-debt-ceiling/242484/
by george on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:00 pm
confessions,
And I think the PM wearing out shoe leather and getting out there among the people has had a lot to do with it. That is why some of the media/journos have been saying she’s been talking about the CT too much!
by janice2 on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:00 pm
This is good news.
http://theage.drive.com.au/green-motoring/electric-car-network-ahead-of-schedule-20110726-1hy8q.htmlhis is good news.
by Gary on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:02 pm
and the fact that the sky has fallen down (at least in my neighbour hood).
by Scarpat on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:03 pm
I’ll try that again.
This is good news -
http://theage.drive.com.au/green-motoring/electric-car-network-ahead-of-schedule-20110726-1hy8q.html
by Gary on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:04 pm
Yep. Keep on talking PM!
by Dario on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:05 pm
BB, sort of. I think the carbon price issue might settle down. The Murdoch thing has caused people to pause and look at News Ltd. It has also given the Govt an arrow in the quiver against them. The Norwegian terrorist massacre I think will make a lot of thinking people stop and look a bit more critically at Jones, Hadley et al. The Malaysian Deal is done. And importantly, the polls, while still dire, are not as dire as 2 weeks ago.
The only fly in the ointment is the AFR stuff by Kitney. Why is that coming out now? Is it because those who are trying to undermine the PM are also assessing that she has passed the nadir (is that the right word? Trough, anyway) and is on the rise?
And finally, Turnbull is sort of back in the game. I would be very surprised if he hasn’t walked into Abbott’s office and done the “finger in the chest” thing.
Let’s see what things are like in a month.
by Lynchpin on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:06 pm
Are you joking? Have you heard anything of it today? Did you see it on the mainstream news services last night? I didn’t.
by Gary on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:08 pm
Meanwhile some ‘happy’ news of Happy Feet the penguin…sory bout the 30 sec commercial first
http://media.smh.com.au/news/environment-news/happy-feet-hits-the-pool-2515366.html
by david on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:11 pm
No! And I think that is because unlike the LOTO, if the PM says it was total bumpkin then it is.
by Dee on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:13 pm
It was seemingly BS
by Dario on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:13 pm
No Gary, not joking. Yes, it was in today’s AFR. I am not seeking to overstate it; but it troubles me. Kitney is a good journo, in my view. I don’t think he is making it up. It concerns me that someone, and they appear to be in the ALP, is still stirring this stuff up about Gillard and her opposition to the ETS.
Gary, are you not concerned that there may be people in the ALP/Govt still trying to destabilise the leadership? In my view, that is the last thing the Govt needs. What is your view?
by Lynchpin on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:13 pm
I never thought I’d agree with you Two Piece Feed but on this particular topic I do.
A person’s looks, dress, hair-style & colour and so on adds nothing whatsoever to the debate.
by charlton on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:14 pm
Speaking of circlejerks, why does Gus call you “two stroke”?
by drake on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:15 pm
Even if the AFR stuff was 100% true, instead of 100% tosh, so what? Is Kitney saying the PM was correct or incorrect in her supposed submission?
by ruawake on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:16 pm
Maybe, but the fact that it is being fed to a senior journo might not be BS; that is my concern.
by Lynchpin on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:16 pm
It feeds into the perception of her disingenuity.
by Lynchpin on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:17 pm
Lynchpin,
I think someone anti-labor wants people to be concerned that the Govt is leaking.
by janice2 on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:18 pm
The story was out yesterday. Someone linked it here or at least presented excepts of it. Only sky picked it up yesterday and the PM gave a very good rebuttal of it yesterday. It failed to make the nightly news services. No-one followed it up.
by Gary on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:19 pm
Lynchpin
The PM said outrightly that it had no veracity & was untruthful.
If however, she danced around the issue I would be suspicious & concerned that someone within party circles was causing grief.
ALP ministers have more to lose than gain if Julia Gillard gets toppled.
The indies have stated categorically on numerous occassions that if she goes so does their support.
by Dee on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:19 pm
That is also possibly true. But Kitney has been quoting ALP people. I don’t think he is making it up.
by Lynchpin on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:19 pm
Is there a transcript available?
by rishane on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:20 pm
That’s marvellous news, Puff. Let’s hope he can bring this about. It does confirm a theme we were discussing earlier today that this government, perhaps because of its unusual minority status and being beholden to other than factional leaders, seems set to deliver a very big program of reforms.
As you say, this would rate among the most worthy.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:20 pm
Charlton I think you misunderstand TPF. He/she actually thinks it good to do just that. In fact he/she enjoys doing it.
by Gary on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:21 pm
I think the point it was trying to make was too confusing for any average joe to have understood it anyway, so it had bugger all legs to start with. The only person who had wet undies the moment they saw it was the airhead Crabby, who disgraces her so-called profession a little more every day.
by Dario on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:21 pm
So it is not news, it is a load of tosh that feeds perception. Which is exactly why journalists need a kick up the bum. If it went against perception would it be reported? I doubt it.
by ruawake on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:22 pm
No. The fact that it hardly made a splash suggests there is nothing in it.
by Gary on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:22 pm
Was that definite in the article? It could very well have been a department ‘leak’.
by Dario on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:22 pm
Actually, to me it smelt a little bit like an excercise in smoking out a rat with some false info. I hope they got ‘em
by Dario on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:23 pm
Lynchpin,
Maybe Kitney is being taken for a ride? Again, it depends what “ALP people” are feeding him the info – they could be Godwin Grech types.
by janice2 on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:24 pm
And what names did he actually give?
by Gary on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:24 pm
David,
Thanks for the Happy Feet.
by This little black duck on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Gary, wrong. In today’s AFR on pages 4 and 5 there is a picture of Gillard with the caption “Julia Gillard yesterday: Her proposal for a bipartisan climate approach has gained support” and the article goes onto to talk about the deal “secretly proposed by Julia Gillard” and then the article talks about the proposal being revived if Gillard is replaced.
by Lynchpin on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Hello folks, are people still discussing this so called leak ?
by zoidlord on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:25 pm
What names did Laurie Oakes have?
by Lynchpin on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:25 pm
The story was out yesterday.
by Gary on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:25 pm
janice2 @ 2359
Despite the relentlessly negative spin applied to all things Gillard by the Murdoch Circus and their echoes within the debased ABC, Australians are generally a fair and decent people, given half a chance.
The PM and the Federal Government will win back some lost support over time by their dogged determination to pursue some decent and progressive policies for the nation’s long term benefit, and they pretty much have no choice now anyway but to play this long game and hope and trust in the decency of the electorate in eventually rewarding positive decision-making (even if they don’t fully understand the policies) and also in recognising that they don’t now, and never have liked Tony Abbott for a very good reason – he’s an extremist and a zealot.
Good policy and the associated hard legislative decisions, taken in what seems to many voters to be against the ALP’s electoral interests, at least as far as the polls are concerned, will eventually garner respect and support across those citizens who are interested in a fair go. It will never satisfy the bigots and rednecks who lap up the fear and hatred fomented by the talkback open sewer, but these fascists don’t vote for the left of centre parties anyway.
Will it be enough to get the ALP over the electoral line in 2013? Dawkins only knows at this point, but we have to maintain the rage and the enthusiam in support of, to quote Maxwell Smart, the forces of goodness and niceness, and keep at bay the forces of evil and rottenness.
by The Big Ship on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:26 pm
OK, sorry to have stirred it up. ‘Nuf said.
by Lynchpin on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:26 pm
I’ll ask again Lynchpin, have you seen or heard anything about that story today on the news services?
by Gary on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:27 pm
BH
Murdoch tossed Beck a few months ago. I gather Wendy had something to do with it. She wasn’t a big fan.
by Diogenes on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:27 pm
Gary, as above. It is rehashed by Kitney again today. Take a look at pages 4 and 5 of the AFR if you won’t take my word for it.
by Lynchpin on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:28 pm
To the various people who linked http://annarose.net.au/2011/07/22/fear-and-loathing-in-australian-politics/ , thanks. A sad but very important read. It also reminds me that its a shame how little sexism comes up as a possible factor in poll results or similar things, how its always seen as the politician’s (in this case Gillard) fault instead.
by rishane on Jul 26, 2011 at 5:29 pm