Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.
We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.
UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Boerwar 3338
I take your point about labor costs but for many businesses these are rarely the majority of the total. Utilities are an even smaller component of costs – 4% of GDP including what households pay. I say again – we have seen a 22% appreciation in the currency. We certainly haven’t seen a 22% rise in wages, especially in retail. Why haven’t prices fallen? Take clothing for example – a 2% fall not counting “bling”. Why so little? The vast majority is imported, and it should all be much cheaper.
by Socrates on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:07 pm
The left? What about Andrew Bolt immediatley jumping to the conlusion that it was another case of Islamist terrorism, simply to add to his xenophobic agenda?
by ShowsOn on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:07 pm
Glen
Let us hope that all the cumulative urging to revolt, armed revolt, murder, and assassination by an assortment of Coalition politicians, tabloids and shock jocks does not trigger something similar in Australia.
by Boerwar on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:08 pm
Glen,
The right wing, xenophobic, anti-progressive, anti-Islam hate rhetoric that’s been intensifying over recent years is not without a price, a very, very high price, an ongoing price.
Why not condemn that, rather than lend your voice to the anti-left hate noise.
by Cuppa on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:09 pm
Glen,
Are you truly serious with that comment about the left?
How about whenever some act of terrorism occurs, the usual suspects wheel out how it’s all to do with ‘lefty’ do gooders and the like.
Jeez, right wing projection or what.
by BigBob on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Charlton
You mean the Piggy Muldoon that set up the red, white and blue police thuggery teams that went around NZ in conjunction with the army, When the army laid out all the barbed wire and the red white and blue Muldoon thuggery squads busted and crunched local NZeders heads and bones so they could have a game of rugger here and there. What a nice bloke for sure.
by Gaffhook on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:12 pm
I don’t know if this has been mentioned before, but the ‘waste’ of the BER was brought up again I thought another private sector reference point was interesting:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/201107/s3278695.htm
That’s a typical 20% cost blow-out on private sector construction works. On these figures if the private sector had taken on the BER’s $16.2B headline cost it would -typically- have blown out by over $3.2B!
Compared to what private industry gets away with, the BER was delivered far and away closer to on-time and on-budget. And yet it was still a ‘debacle’ apparently…
by Jackol on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Just to put Glen in his place
The Liberal Party have only won two federal elections: 1975 and 1977.
The leader of the party at that time (the most successful leader in the parties history) canceled his membership in 2009.
The only other times the Liberal Party have come close to winning elections were in 1996 and 2004. That’s a very long time between drinks.
What we witnessed in NSW in March was a very rare event in politics: The Liberal Party winning government in their own right.
In summary, the Liberal Party are highly dependent on the National Party which is a little ironic as the so called “right” side of politics is meant to believe in individual responsibility and self reliance (personally I think the ALP are far closer to this view than the Coalition).
by spur212 on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:14 pm
True, but that was almost a job description for any Roman emperor. Not that there was much left to suppress by then…
by Kersebleptes on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:14 pm
the stupidity is breathtaking
by george on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:14 pm
S
Not an econometrician, so I don’t know the answers to your question, which looks like a good question to me.
It also raises the question of how they calculate the CPI impact of online purchases.
You might want to think about this as well: retail of various stripes is definitely showing stress. Share market prices for the retail sector are taking a hammering. Stores are closing. Profits are going down the tube. Forecasts are being downgraded, etc, etc.
by Boerwar on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:17 pm
I have already derided him for speaking too soon on the likely culprit but many in the PB Labortariat are a trite gleeful at the prospect of using this crime to say the Right is to blame. George for one.
That’s just a silly statement and I never subscribe to that POV.
by Glen on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:17 pm
K
It did not have to be the job description.
It is the job description they grabbed consolidated and tightened. Given his choices, Mr Domitian tightened his dictatorial grip using various techniques.
The religious emperor/god spin was a bit on the roman nose as well, IMHO.
by Boerwar on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:19 pm
I’ve never denied that so how is that putting me in my place exactly?
Anyway the Coalition runs for government not the Liberal and National Parties separately…it’s called a Coalition for a reason spur212.
by Glen on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:20 pm
Oh I see William – you’re happy to remove my post, but happy to leave Glen’s “trite gleeful at the prospect of using this crime to say the Right is to blame. George for one.”
Cheers mate. Appreciate the even handedness here. Pretty classy.
by george on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:23 pm
Finns
Finns, Boerwar, Fukushima & Co Conglomorate have patented ‘emperor’. In such troubled times as ours people yearn for a golden age when a ‘good’ emperor looked ‘good’ compared to the squabble and moral squalor of our contemporary democracy.
Our Conglomorate is quite optimistic that people will forget that even a bad democracy is better than a ‘good’ dictatorship. We should get some good ‘royalties’. (Pun intended.)
by Boerwar on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:23 pm
That response is a recipe for death by asphyxiation every time Tony Abbott speaks
George, for your own sake, never again listen to more than four minutes of any Liberal, climate denialist, or Libertarian speech.
by Socrates on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:23 pm
BigBob you’re wrong but you’re entitled to your opinion.
Find an example to back that up where I haven’t and you may have a point otherwise you’re making false statements.
by Glen on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:23 pm
Grow up, George.
by William Bowe on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:24 pm
i nearly fell off my chair!
by victoria on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:25 pm
William, please remove the “trite gleeful” post of Glen’s. I think this is fair.
by george on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:26 pm
George, there is no equivalence between Glen’s comment and yours.
by William Bowe on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:27 pm
Bludgers I see that you are trying to pretend that colourful expressions of frustration and disappointment are meant to be taken literally and that when some media queen says someone should be put in a chaff bag and dropped in the ocean it is an actual call for their assassination.
This is silly. It is just colourful language, and everyone knows that. You should end your selective amnesia and think back to some of the colourful things critics said should be done to John Howard or Peter Reith back in the day!
Get a grip bludgers, get a grip.
by Two Piece Feed on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:28 pm
William, sorry but he is saying my comments have been a “trite gleeful” about the Norwegian tragedy and right wing connection.
Do you agree with this?
by george on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:29 pm
.9% per Q times 4 Q = 3.6% pa. The RBA will not like that.
We need to put a halt to some of the minerals investment so that our Dutch disease does not get out of hand.
by Boerwar on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:29 pm
by victoria on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:29 pm
No. I agree with very little of what appears here.
by William Bowe on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:30 pm
Glen
If the Coalition runs for government, why is it when I read the placards at election time, it says Liberal Party or National Party? (except for Queensland)
I never see a Coalition party.
If I chose to vote Liberal, I’m not voting for a rural conservative/agrarian party like the Nationals.
by spur212 on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:30 pm
So why are you allowing him to paint my comments in this way, which HAVE NOT BEEN “gleeful” with respects to this tragedy.
Please remove that comment. It is offensive to me beyond anything else.
by george on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:32 pm
TPF
So, will the Coalition take full responsibility if there is an assassination in Australia by a right wing nutter some time in the next two years?
Or will it just be an unfortunate side-effect of all the colourful death and murder talk, calls for euthanisation, calls for revolt and calls for armed revolt?
by Boerwar on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:32 pm
Spur212 – You’re voting for the Coalition because they’re in an alliance. No there is no Coalition Party but the two Parties do work together and form government together.
George if you didn’t post so many links about the connection with John Howard and Costello and the Right is to blame about the mass murder I wouldn’t have made the comment.
by Glen on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:33 pm
Go for it two piece – you show me a sustained record of implied death threats against Howard and Reith in the MSM media and I’ll give you some credence.
This is not colourful language – it is inflammatory and divisive and will not end in anything good for any involved.
by BigBob on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:34 pm
Glen – since William will not remove your message, please withdraw what you have written about me. Unless you can provide evidence of me posting with “glee” on the connection between right-wing comments from politicians/media and what has happened in Norway, then your comment is highly offensive. Direct anything you like at me, but please don’t lie about what I post here.
by george on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:34 pm
Believe me, the Dutch disease is bad.
Not only does it stuff up the rest of the economy, but you get earthquakes and your towns get the shakes as the earth subsides into what used to be gas deposits.
by Boerwar on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:34 pm
latikambourke[ Small Biz Minster Nick Sherry says reducing the GST threshold for internet shopping would not deter Australians from buying online.
1 minute ago]
by victoria on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:34 pm
Depends if he’s insane or not I suppose Boewar…this Norwegian is insane by all accounts so how can you blame the right for someone mentally unstable??
Most of those nutjobs would never actually do such a thing anyway. They’re just mouthing off. Anyway thanks to John Winston Howard our gun laws are so tight it’d make it tough for any nutjob to knock off a polly.
by Glen on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:35 pm
Electorally speaking I think it’s a bit of a stretch to assert that Australia is by and large conservative when the major conservative party has only won two federal elections in its own right since its formation. (And would be unlikely to win another if it had to compete on a level media field).
by Cuppa on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:35 pm
Boerwa @ 3379r,
It will be because of something the Left did, we must have incited them or something.
After all, we control the media.
by BigBob on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:37 pm
They should take as much responsibility as you think Labor should have if some left-wing nutter had assassinated John Howard amidst the context of all the exaggerated and colourful things which were said about him by the left when he was Prime Minister.
by Two Piece Feed on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:38 pm
Glen,
Again you speak rubbish.
I can still obtain a rifle well and truly sufficient to kill someone from a long distance, even with our gun laws.
by BigBob on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:39 pm
Glen, could you please withdraw your post, describing me as “gleefully” connecting what happened in Norway with right-wing comments.
by george on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:40 pm
Come on Two Piece, produce the evidence to support your claims that there was an equal level of implied death threats to Howard in the MSM. If not, you are just spouting BS.
by BigBob on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:40 pm
Glen, could you please withdraw your post, describing me as “gleefully” connecting what happened in Norway with right-wing comments.
Could you also please withdraw this – what links???
by george on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:42 pm
No George. Your posts have made it clear your views on the subject. Nuff said.
When it’s all said and done this bloke in Norway will be most likely found insane and the right wing connections as the only cause for his actions will be found to be a gross exaggeration given how mentally unstable this individual is by all accounts (even his own lawyer thinks so).
Take it easy Bludgers!
by Glen on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:43 pm
G
Of course he/they will be insane.
They nearly always are. No excuse, really. It is what triggers nutters to action that we are discussing here.
Here is the scenario. A nutter, inspired by the plethora of death calls and feeling righteous about knocking of an ‘illegitimate’ government kills a Labor Party member. There is a by-election. Mr Abbott’s candidate wins. We have our first government courtesy of a murder. Like this scenario?
Or does Mr Abbott say, nope. We will not run a candidate in an electorate in which the vacancy has been caused by an assassination? That’s not how we do democracy.
Like that scenario?
by Boerwar on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:44 pm
Don’t forget about all those left wing gun owners who made JH wear a bullet proof vest. Oh, hang on…
by roaldan1000 on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:44 pm
Glen, withdraw or you are gutless. You cannot provide any evidence and you are a liar. Pathetic
by george on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:44 pm
The left, Glen, the Left??? If that’s not a sick joke, some examples might be handy.
I take it even you don’t read Bolt, who apparently is unrepentant about jumping the gun and blaming it all on middle-east terrorists and multiculturalism. He’s back for another dose of slime:
But the prize goes to Beck who, not content with the victims being Young Labour managed to invoke Godwin’s law. Arsehole of the year!
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:45 pm
I’m afraid I’m going to have to ask you to get over it, George.
by William Bowe on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:46 pm
TPF
Tsk, tsk. I can’t recall a sustained campaign of calls for armed revolt, death talk, murder talk, death threats and euthanization talk in relation to Mr Howard.
It would help if you stuck to the facts.
by Boerwar on Jul 27, 2011 at 3:46 pm