Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.
We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.
UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
rishane,
I recommend http://tinyurl.com/
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:13 pm
If you default it means you don’t pay your obligations. Usually, it isn’t catastrophic. Your repayment period is extended and you get a whack on the interest. In Europe, the French and German banks will have to take a bit of a hit. Not sure how it works within one nation (USA).
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:16 pm
Darren, it’s highway to hell
by The Finnigans on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:19 pm
Shows On,
The markets around the world would definitly shudder for a while in the uncertainty. Then would slowly recover to a point, and at a rate, dependant on each countries exposure to the US.
But the bit I fear is the the longest, darkest recession in the history of modern man. The social upheaval in the US would be urban third world for a long, long time.
by Space Kidette on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:19 pm
That’s the problem though. His ‘compromises’ are basically just sellouts. There’s no point trying to be bipartisan if the side you’re against knows that you’re going to cave into their demands. Yes, the Republicans are nuts, but he’s really not doing a good job of standing against them. (I think I linked it already, but have a look at the New York Review of Books article ‘What Were They Thinking?’ to show how they perceive him as a weak negotiator.)
TLBD–thanks for the recommendation. I’ll try it out with this: http://tinyurl.com/3z9s55l This section is especially instructive when you compare to what’s being done in Australia:
by rishane on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:19 pm
There is absolutely no evidence presented that Breivic is insane, has any sort of mental illness or mental impairment.
Just because he has committed an atrocity and is operating outside the norms of society does not make him ill. It may make him a rotten piece of shyte, but sick?
No.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:20 pm
I was under the impression that previous defaults had all taken place before Bretton Woods, so the USA as we now know it has never defaulted…
by Kersebleptes on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:20 pm
And all those millions of guns!!
by BK on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:20 pm
3750
That is useful for small text space mediums like twitter and where addresses get cut short by misinterpretation by formatting software. However it also hides the actual website to which you are being sent so where a link does not get cut by formatting (like in 3744) then, in my opinion, it should not be used.
by Tom the first and best on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:21 pm
Puff,
I predict his lawyer will go insane or will not see the course of his clients trial.
by Space Kidette on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:21 pm
Obi is compromising already. What he will not do is throw the poor to the wolves, which is what the Republicans are trying to do.
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:21 pm
Amigo, the more the merrier says Kev
http://resources0.news.com.au/images/2011/07/23/1226100/445184-kevin-rudd.jpg
by vera on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:22 pm
Trust me, she was wild and so was The Lodge, even by the psycadelic standards of the year of “A whiter shade of pale”, “Going to San Francisco with a flower in your hair” and Sergeant Pepper. Burnt orange and shocking pink! The chandeliers were plastic! Every women’s mag in the nation, including Vogue Australia, ran articles about it. But then, we all had burnt orange stuff. And shocking pink threads.
The Holts were so alive, “with it” and great fun, especially after the traditional Menzies.
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:22 pm
BK,
I hadn’t even factored that in, but the ramifications will be far from limited to the financial aspects.
by Space Kidette on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:22 pm
TTFaB,
You don’t have to go the whole way. There is an intermediate step which allows the clicker to preview the url.
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:23 pm
SSo Evan NO1 orNO2 orNO14 just because the AFP would be looking out for our Prme Minister doesnt make these threats right or indeed something to forget about
by canasta76 on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:24 pm
Re: Menzies Letters and the 1975 blocking of supply…
I’ve always thought that a part of the Liberal Party died with Harold Holt in 1967.
Holt was the natural successor of the Liberal Party, was well liked and was able to keep the Party together. When he died you had ructions between all sorts of factions most notably the Gorton and McMahon camps until McMahon lost in 1972.
I’ve always thought that Harold Holt could well have carried the baton beyond 1969 an election which he’d have won and then either riding high in popularity against Whitlam staying on or alternatively handing off to Gorton before 1972 possibly drawing down our commitment in Vietnam as Gorton was not a man in favour of the war and the thinking of Forward defence….I can almost see a Prime Minister John Gorton 1972-1983 before beaten by Hawke in 1983.
Once Holt died the Libs became torn between Gorton, McMahon and Snedden and only patched up by thumping wins by Fraser in 1975 and 1977 but this was not the whole story and then you had all the problems between 1983 and 1996…13 years in the wilderness and bitter infighting between rival camps.
Howard again restored stability but after his loss in 2007 I dunno. I feel as though the Liberals do much better at policy creation within government than outside government. Probably a silly statement but they’re directionless, they’re frightening of big policy ideas and whilst doing a good job of holding the government to account they arent giving people a reason to vote for them than a reason to vote against Gillard.
by Glen on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:24 pm
ShowsOn
Nah the US government has done it a number of times. However it was pretty much 100% of the locals that got screwed over. However in 1970 (?) a French demand for a loan repayment caught the US short. Anyways check this out.
http://mises.org/daily/5463/A-Short-History-of-US-Credit-Defaults
by poroti on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:26 pm
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
The USA Congress is so desperate for money. It has decided to sell the White House & ask Obama to move back to his father’s village in Kenya
5 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:26 pm
BK,
What is even scarier is that the US will not have had sufficient time to recover from the current financial events when there is an even bigger problem looming on their horizon. The maturing of 401k’s (US equivalent of Super) for the the baby boomers.
They already know they cannot pay for it.
by Space Kidette on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:26 pm
Prediction: print more money and go like Germany 1929.
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:28 pm
Kiddo, boom, boom, boom
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOyj4ciJk34
by The Finnigans on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:29 pm
Glen, Holt still lives in Beijing.
by The Finnigans on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:31 pm
Pity they stopped printing those $1000 bills, they could’ve come in handy
by george on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:31 pm
Kidette
It’s not good. So many aspects over there have terrible trajectories.
by BK on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:31 pm
Space Kidette
Personally I look forward to the revolution and who will be first up against the wall when the American sans culottes mobilise.
by poroti on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:32 pm
Sk
i was reading to day the african americans unemployment level is double the white americans, that would be enough to cause unrest.
surley they will pass these bills in the end
by my say on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:32 pm
Yeah, their ideas are seriously awful. But you know (and I wish he wasn’t this way), Obama seems to be more about appearing ‘bipartisan’ and appealing to independent voters than actually doing something to help the poor. Even his ‘Grand Bargain’ proposal had a very weird idea of compromise, which was basically balancing off parts of Social Security/Medicare against ending a few upper-class tax breaks, ignoring that one decision is going to hurt many more people than the other.
by rishane on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:32 pm
Finns,
nah, they won’t ask Obama to move back to his father’s village. They will just deport him. After all, he is not really American is he?
by Scarpat on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:33 pm
103 he’d be…if that were true.
by Glen on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:33 pm
George
I have risen to your challenge concerning left wing reporting on right wing politicians and fallen short/ found some stuff on the Communist Party of Australia’s website reporting John Valder’s description of John Howard as a war criminal in 2004. Good enough?
Big fans of Hugo Chavez as well.
by shellbell on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:33 pm
Finns,
The black men who can’t jump CAN play guitar!
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:33 pm
i think they printed money in about 1935 george,
my father in law alwasy talked about the rise of hitler about that time,.
in europe many people out side germany saw it different to the people of germany so i am told
by my say on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:34 pm
by george on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:35 pm
Ducky, boom boom boom boom
by The Finnigans on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:35 pm
Not only that, he said McMahon was a scheming little bastard who wasted too much time on undermining, first Holt, then Gorton.
So yes, he’d have loathed Howard, who was even more treacherous than McMahon, and Abbott would have been beneath contempt.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:35 pm
3766
There is a lot of speculation that Holt was going to face a leadership challenge had he been PM much longer. The Liberals did not do too well in the 1967 half-Senate Election and there was leadership tension in the Liberals. Hasluck might have mad PM.
Another question is whether or not Holt would have been able to win from opposition had Calwell won in 1961?
by Tom the first and best on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:35 pm
my say,
So many are hurting it won’t be about colour, race or religion. Sheer numbers will be the driver.
by Space Kidette on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:36 pm
can some one explain in a couple of sentences what the problem is for the republicans
by my say on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:37 pm
The offensive croc-eating the PM cake story makes it to the ABC.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-27/scullions-cake-for-gillard/2812506
by confessions on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:37 pm
Ducky@3770
and with it the rise of facism?
by victoria on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:38 pm
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
Gee #TheirABC has gone down market, so many fuackings going on there
19 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:38 pm
Hate. And disrespect for democracy.
Much like the coalition here.
by confessions on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:38 pm
but i would rather have a labor gov. than the dark side if a money problem comes.
imagine how the poor the elderley would suffer with the libs,
by my say on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:38 pm
my say
Nah the shit hit the fan in 1923 or so
http://www.commodityzen.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/573px-German_Hyperinflation.jpg
by poroti on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:39 pm
A bit of history:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_(money)#Early_20th_century
Like to carry around a US$1 trillion note?
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:39 pm
1. They’re not in power
2. Obama/Dems don’t have a mandate/are illegitimate
3. They want their mummy
by george on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:40 pm
victoria,
I got my date a tad wrong. 1923 it is.
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:40 pm
confessions , in the end they would not want to be responsible for a world recession would they, are they playing a chess game.
by my say on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:40 pm
WestWingReport Treasury bonds are now judged to be riskier than comparable debt of companies like Coca-Cola – says the credit default swap market
by gusface on Jul 27, 2011 at 9:40 pm