Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.
We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.
UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Malcolm and Tony, the love that dare not speak…..
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=643966&vId=
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:07 pm
An old Qld copper explained policing to me this way. “We used to be a Police Force, now we are a Police Service”.
by ruawake on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:08 pm
This doesn’t reflect well on Malcolm.
by Gary on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:08 pm
poroti…tks for the link to David Langes Oxford debate, got very moist eyes seeing him in top gear again. Remember watching that on the night, such pride. Not many orators in the ranks these days to equal him. Had a look also at the clip of Muldoon announcing the ’84 snap election, outside his office, he was as drunk as a …that finally did him in.
by david on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:09 pm
Worth pointing out that that F2F Morgan is the first one conducted after the carbon tax announcement.
by spur212 on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:09 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans
Obama spent $1T in his Stimulus Programs, Dubya spent $1.5T on tax cut for the rich. Only in USA #USAIsFuckued
17 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:11 pm
Why not?
by Lynchpin on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:13 pm
If the ETS passes and Turnbull becomes leader, then I think Turnbull would be an unbackable favourite to become PM.
The thing that is keeping Labor in the game is the Liberals being lead by a guy who is opposed to the ETS, and who is trying to base his entire election strategy on repealing something that will be old news by election day. If the ETS is passed and they are lead by a leader who basically supports the policy, then the election will have to be about other things.
by ShowsOn on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:14 pm
conceravota Concera Vota
by darrenlaver
@
@Thefinnigans US painted themselves into a corner. Voted in RW loonies. Lack of foresight. Just like Lib party. Abbott & Minchin wreck too.
10 minutes ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Finns
Finns, Boerwar, Fukushima & Co Conglomate Tea Party Division did well to get us set in some nice short positions on the future of the US. That, plus the Gold Division’s holdings of the real thing, would mean that we are laughing all the way to our Banking Division’s HQ in the Caymans.
Let’s cross fingers that our friends succeed in warding off a change in the debt ceiling.
by Boerwar on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Tom H
Tom with a little bit of good organisation and luck, MordorMedia will be out of existance by the next election.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/murdoch-news-empire-will-fall-biographer-20110729-1i34k.html
by Gaffhook on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans???????
@
@TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm, is it the Coalition Policy to dump the PM in a bag into the sea? #auspol
5 minutes ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:20 pm
BW, i am keeping the best Green Teas from the Tea Party. They can drink the pissants
by The Finnigans on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:21 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans???????
USA Public debts is about $14T the world holds $5T in the Treasury Bills. How long can the world keeps the Yanks in Disneyland? #USAIsfucked
1 minute ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:22 pm
Finns
Mr Brown would applaud your initiative.
by Boerwar on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:22 pm
The Finnigans
What is John McCain’s position?
by victoria on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:23 pm
Is this a lost Yes Minister script?
by autocrat on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:24 pm
Boerwar
The Finn,Boerwar Fukushima Zaibatsu should hire Comical Ali to open a Mission Accomplished Division. From the following article opportunities in the area could abound.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/28/qassem-suleimani-iran-iraq-influence
by poroti on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:24 pm
victoria – thanks
GG – How right you are. Facts are no longer on Richardson’s agenda. A few other things have happened this week – Malaysia, Tony Blair here, etc so I guess the PM has had to spend time away from the CT issue.
I saw a quick clip on ABC Breakfast of Abbott on Ch9 today. I’m with other Bludgers who think he looks most uncomfortable lately. I reckon he is getting some comments out in voter land that don’t excite him. Was it Laura Tingle who said he is being asked awkward questions, dopn regional radio, about his DA plan? He doesn’t look a happy chappy.
BTW – did anyone else notice how brash at times and brittle at others that Trioli seemed this morning on Breakfast. I wondered if somebody had a bottle hidden under the sofa she was sitting on. It was a pretty strange performance from 6am to 8.00am
by BH on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:24 pm
autocrat
It is a fair dinkum statement by Turnbull on The Nation show last night with David Speers
by victoria on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:25 pm
Vic, i have emailed his a copy of Kama Sutra – bizarro he said of his fellow Repugs, especially the Tea Party
by The Finnigans on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans???????
Accord to Foxnews: USA has run out of money now and will run out of credit by August 2nd. Disneyland anymore? #USAISfucked
1 minute ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Shows On,
Having someone as leader of the Libs who would be talking about the issues that matter to voters when they are about to vote would certainly be a help to the Libs.
Whether Turnbull could beat Gillard in two years from now after she has implemented her programme is debateable. We Australians tend to not like churning our PMs
As always, it will come down to the economy, economic management, interest rates jobs and an X factor. It always does.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:27 pm
Q: What is John McCain’s position?
A: http://farm1.static.flickr.com/12/15772488_9ddae96d16.jpg
by poroti on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:28 pm
OPT @ 5245
Exactly!
So there is a role for leadership and Anna Bligh showed it. Oh… and she is a woman.
Premier Bligh saw the need and stepped forward and I would bet she did not have a formal role in the emergency management structure. She made some hard decisions and took responsibility for them.
She provides a start contrast between someone who did have such formal responsibilities and did the exact opposite.
Gender has nothing to do with it.
by bemused on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:29 pm
Poroti, that’s a pain in the arse if you ask me
by The Finnigans on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Autocrat – yes, in spades. Turnbull is doing himself a big disservice. He would be better to do what Bruce Baird and other Libs have done before. If he wants to become PM he will win more votes from the swingers if he stands by his principles.
by BH on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:31 pm
Gee bemused, you are obsessed with sex. go and take cold shower
by The Finnigans on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:32 pm
SK – devoted grandparents, her father and a very devoted aunt who is slightly older than her mother. She is very lucky that she will be protected and loved so much.
Makes your heart bleed for the kids tho, doesn’t it.
by BH on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Poroti
by victoria on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Yes, probably…but in reality he would be turfed. I think it is better (for his interests) to bide his time, obfuscate; and then strike when the time is right.
by Lynchpin on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Finns
Shorter version;
That’s a Thomas.
by Gaffhook on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:35 pm
Just got my Lib email complaining about millions of news taxes. Ends with…
Don’t pay taxes. Give us money instead.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:39 pm
Re: Malcolm Turnbull and a CP vote – I still say he will cross the floor when it comes to the vote (if a division is called of course). His ‘principled’ support of an ETS is his most visible point of differentiation from Tony Abbott. If he’s going to make a play for the Liberal leadership, and I can’t see why he wouldn’t given his history and the small, but significant, window of opportunity that is about to open up, then he has to have a narrative, and the rational carbon pricing policy, rejection of Tony Abbott’s nonsensical scatter-gun approach to politics, is where he can stake his claim.
Whether he succeeds will depend on what the sentiment is in the Liberal camp – if the polls have shifted enough to give the government a chance at reelection then obviously Tony Abbott loses his trump card, and other grievances may come to the surface – business dissatisfaction with Tony Abbott’s economic ludditism, rejection of his ad hoc policies, a restoration of more mainstream conservative thought within the party. Obviously Malcolm Turnbull needs to have been internally shoring up his numbers within the party and trying to repair the damage from his first leadership attempt…
If he thinks he can just come out all of a sudden and say ‘pick me’ he’s dreaming… still, there’s at least a year to go before he would begin really making his play for the top job – plenty of time to get to work to make his case to his colleagues behind the scenes.
by Jackol on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:40 pm
Great analysis Jackol
by Lynchpin on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:43 pm
poroti
Finns, Boewar, Fukushima & Co Conglomorate would prefer it if you would stop fingering our operatives.
Think chaff bag/sea.
by Boerwar on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:44 pm
sorry if this already posted
Joe has voted for Kev’s tea ahead of The Parrot’s
he said Kev rang him last night and invoked the old mates act
Apparently 2GB going feral mustering votes for Parrot
Comp closes 5pm tomorrow
Don’t let Jones win
http://www.twiningsausblend.com.au
Sunrise video with Joe and tony Burke here
http://www.facebook.com/KevinRuddMP
by vera on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:44 pm
Bludgers, something to boost any Friday afternoon slowdown.
The ultimate belter of a tune, Ethel Merman sings Irving Berlin’s “There’s No Business Like Show Business” http://bit.ly/nrPzXC
BTW, she’s 68 at the time of this recording in 1976.
by Aristotle on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:45 pm
Rebel Republicans (read tea party) are stymying John Boehner’s planned debt compromise as the deadline to avoid a default approaches http://t.co/GjptUtz
by david on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:50 pm
Aristotle – when are you next on ABC?
by shellbell on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:50 pm
Moooving in the right direction
http://www.roymorgan.com/general/Home.cfm
by vera on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:51 pm
Vera can you vote more than once for our Kev. re the twinning s tea competition,
i only read it quickly what does it entail.
by my say on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:53 pm
UUGGHHH
by sprocket_ on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:53 pm
vera,
If you read some of the earlier posts it is actually 53/47 because of the quirky way Morgan distributes his headline preferences is different to the industry norm.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:54 pm
Boerwar
Have you leased out your patented Profit Uber Alle policy to Boeing ? If not you should send them a stern letter demanding cash.
http://www.pogo.org/pogo-files/alerts/national-security/ns-sp-20110623-2.html
by poroti on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:54 pm
my say
No you can only vote once unless you have more than on email address
by vera on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:55 pm
I certainly know what I won’t be watching on Sunday.
What a dreadful panel.
by Lynchpin on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:55 pm
that should say more than ONE email address
by vera on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:55 pm
No, they aren’t blocking a compromise deal, which would’ve included $1 trillion of tax increases along with $3 trillion of spending cuts, they are currently blocking THE REPUBLICAN ONLY plan!
The ~80 strong Tea Party faction is so INSANE, that they won’t even support the plan put forward by their own party’s leadership, that doesn’t have ANYTHING in it that Democrats want!
by ShowsOn on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:56 pm
GG
Gazza just has to be different amigo!
by vera on Jul 29, 2011 at 2:57 pm