Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.
We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.
UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Question on this to the PM.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/deal-done-now-for-making-the-message-heard-20110724-1hve5.html#ixzz1T4J82sJc
by lizzie on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:52 pm
BH
BH
Tibia humper was not at a “MINE” today.
Tibia humper was at Fat Cat Clive Palmers “REFINERY” at Yabulu just north of Townsville.
The stuff that they REFINE comes from overseas ‘MINES”
Hope that helps.
by Gaffhook on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:52 pm
Processing the Asylum Seekers at the Christmas Island detention centre on Australian soil solves a short term political problem for the ALP.
The High Court challenges are no longer an issue (for now).
by spur212 on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:54 pm
the questions to crabb where very direct i thought and she hardly answered any
by my say on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:55 pm
Sneering question from Mark Riley who can’t even be bothered to show a modicum of respect for the PM.
by confessions on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:55 pm
The Comedian Riley is getting more than his share of questions in.
And with a rather accusatory tone.
by BK on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:55 pm
Beautiful.
by Jasmine on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:56 pm
by Dee on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:56 pm
Pm asked about the AFR claims. Says they have no veracity.
by confessions on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:57 pm
Gaffhook
Our ever vigilant press from which I cut and paste the mine line reported it as a mine.
by poroti on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:57 pm
Julia’s on top song dealing with these cretins.
by BK on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:57 pm
PM states those claims in the FinReview have no veracity whatsoever.
by Dee on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:57 pm
Says she’s never accepted Australia could reach its 5% target through direct action.
by confessions on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:58 pm
Err … no.
by William Bowe on Jul 25, 2011 at 3:58 pm
Thanks Dee
Oh dear!
How are you goin’ today, Tone?
by BK on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Julia just reprimanded Michelle for her question on electricity generation.
by lizzie on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:03 pm
I’d give you even money today that he wont be leader at the 2013 election.
by lefty e on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:04 pm
Dee:
I linked to that report a couple of weeks ago (or was it last week?) when it first came out.
To date I’ve only seen two msm reports on it: someone from the West Australian, and an article in the SMH.
by confessions on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:04 pm
Overseeing committee includes UNHCR and IOM.
Your turn, Tony Abbott.
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:05 pm
Tone: “Uhm uhm er er but but but . . . I think I’ll pass.”
by BK on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:07 pm
how can a jounalist alone have a dn q and a by themselves
can they now speak for the gov ???
by my say on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:07 pm
The PM presents so much better when she’s engaging directly with people, rather than speaking to a camera. She comes over as genuine, authoritative, committed and refusing to cop shit from people.
by confessions on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:07 pm
Dee and Confessions the report fails to appreciate how wonderful Tony is, he and Hunt say very clearly the cost is capped, ie they will not spend a cent more than they say the will, and they clearly say it will be perfectly effective. It is a trust thing the report writers didn’t understand.
by Jasmine on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:07 pm
You forgot Senator Very Young and the rest of the refugee industry who have sided with Mr Abbott
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:07 pm
Cadel may not be a Collingwood supporter, but he’s definitely a carbon tax supporter. Which is obviously news to Mark Knight, who managed to produce one of his more ridiculous cartoons in the Hun today. Talk about square pegs and round holes.
by Son of foro on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:09 pm
Abbott could not last two minutes under the circumstances of this presser.
He is an impostor.
by BK on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:09 pm
Boewar
I have not followed the whole but puzzled you find comments about schoolyard cattiness irrelevant. Surely if the issue of Gillard being affected because of her gender it is highly relevant.
More significantly I find some of your comments below odd for someone interested in polling. Surely the whole point of politics and leadership is finding the mix of personality and competence levels in the PM and team that the people will vote for. Withour wishing to discuss whether the PM has or has not any of the issues I think that your dismissing it as silly and irrelevant is not really facing up to political reality; Taking them one at a time:
“gravitas” – BW this is another way of expressing the idea that a person takes their role seriously and has respect form most. Without it no leader will be secure. It is the foundation of political leadership and without it no one will survive. Abbott scores very very low on the “gravitas” scale. Gough Whitlam and Robert Menzies scored very highly. Bob Brown scores highly. Joe Hockey scores better than Abbott but still not high. Robb scores very highly which is why I think Labor people underestimated him and Abbott’s campaign. I am deliberately not commenting on current Labor people because I do not want this to be another flame war.
“Authority” is linked to gravitas but is rather more about control and respect from people. Occasionally a star without “gravitas” may have huge authority. Keating and Hawke to some extent both fell into this category
“wooden” BW this is always going to be a matter of personal perception. It matters if the public see a politician as wooden, because it is another way of saying that people do not trust or understand the them. Like it or not if journalists (and the public)are saying someone is wooden it is a serious issue and needs to be addressed.
“atheist” Much as I find it silly personally there is evidence to suggest that this IS a real electoral issue, especially in Qld. Now I would hate to think this influenced Labor (or Liberal) choice of leader but I would also be a fool if I were to say it did not matter. It just means that the Leader needs some other factors to compensate. Remember that being Catholic, Presbyterian, Muslim or Jewish will also affect some voters positively or negatively to greater or lesser degree. My point is that it is unwise to assume it is not a relevant electoral consideration.
“unmarried”- Once again this may be a factor for some electorally. My gut feeling is that it is not especially important in electoral terms but may be wrong.
“living in sin” As above not really important. However people do judge politicians (and possibly rightly so) on their choice of partner. After all a person who chooses a life partner wisely and can keep that person is likely to also choose senior colleagues and advisers wisely. The ordinary voter has no other real way of judging a politician’s “people” skills than by the traits they demonstrate with family. Lack of a long term relationship means that the public has no yardstick by which to assess a politician
“Her ear lobes are too large, as is her bum” The relevance of “cattiness” here. However if people are discussing these items it suggests that there is nothing else to discuss. However every politician gets this kind of abuse and it is a bit silly to treat these comments with any kind of respect. Tony’s ears, Howard’s eyebrows and height, and Joe Hockey’s weight get plenty of coverage too. Mind you I find this sort of discussion of physical characteristics pretty awful.
“lacks fashion sense.” BW much as it may be a bitter pill to swallow, I think that fashion sense is rather more important than we in Australia in our “classless” society pretend. As a Labor supporter I feel sure that you have staffed polling booths. I feel sure that you could pick the Liberal ladies walking to the booth well before they took a how to vote. “Clothes maketh the Man” should be “Clothes define the woman.” Many if not most for whom fashion sense is very important are probably confirmed Liberals, however not all. Therefore while the electoral importance should not be overstated, nor should it be disregarded. However while I think Gillard cops a bit of negativity here, compared with the stuff dished out to Vanstone and Hanson it is small bikkies. All women politicians need to think hard about they way they present themselves – And that does not mean that they must conform. It does mean that they need to understand the image they wish to present and do it consistently.
‘hyperbole’ and accent. Things like this become an issue when the public and press are already a bit negative. However comments regarding class also apply here. Educational snobs will also be sensitive here. Like earlobes not issues in themselves
barren woman – I really do no think this is a real issue for the electorate.I might be wrong but I just do not see it.
and takes policy seriously. – see comments under gravitas – someone who takes policy seriously and is seen to will go up in the gravitas stakes.
“What a loser.” My point is that each of the issues listed may or may not affect voting. A person scoring poorly on all of them will have some real electoral difficulty. On the other hand there are heaps of other factors which may increase or decrease popularity. They include:
Generosity
Honesty
Machismo
Kindness
Sporting ability (stupid I agree but real)
Celebrity eg acting singing etc
Education (not as much as I would like but still real)
Intelligence
Hands on experience eg from the factory floor
Military record
Charity work
Achievements
Actual policy views (how amazing – some voters will actually vote on policy)
Courage
Independence
Lots of others. However it is not wise to dismiss ANY facors and assume irrelevant
by daretotread on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:09 pm
Great! That number could go up even.
Thanks, Snagglepus. Exit. Stage right…
Sorry. Some of these old cartoons never go away.
by Roy Orbison on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:10 pm
BK
Or http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yk71GY02diY
by poroti on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:11 pm
poroti
by BK on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:12 pm
Gillard handled the question on Direct Action well.
She denied the allegation and attacked Abbott on the bipartisan claim by saying she offered him a seat at the MPCCC.
by spur212 on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:13 pm
Workchoices gets a big mention.
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:14 pm
Talking of the illustrious Ms Crabb
MrDenmore Mr Denmore
by geeksrulz
In light of today’s Essential survey, see this piece from The Failed Estate archives: ‘Trust’ is the USP of journalism
http://thefailedestate.blogspot.com/2010/10/trust-never-sleeps.html
by david on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:15 pm
Oh the Narrowing.
1) had a coffee with the other Girls today, they are my coffee set focus group, not very political but typical morgage belt women. I detected a shift,. for two reasons, they are finding it a bit much to follow Phoney Tony any more,. one comment was instructive,. ” Oh look I don’t get the whole thing, but really does Tony Abbott think we are all thick as bricks.” Well interesting, as most would agree here, tony does think most people are thick as bricks, but even the thick are beginning to see that. Secondly and somewhat in keeping, two of the group were particularily disturbed by the whole Budgy Smuggler comments on the weekend. Tony standing around explaining how some Liberal Women wanted him to wear smaller budgie smugglers and that after he got out of the water his were definately smaller. The point made was that they didn’t want tony to have any discussion with them about the size of his anything. They were quite turned off him over this.
The Girls did give the impression that they were beginning to doubt the Liberal meme at the moment.
by Barking on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:15 pm
There must be an Abbott visitation now, surely!
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:15 pm
Sooooo….any opinions about the FinReview article in light of the PM’s comments?
by Dee on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:19 pm
Kim Landers summarised the PM on Malaysia by mentioning cost, and then “there will be no exemptions”, all must go to Malaysia (children, grandmothers etc.). My recollection is that “people will be judged on an individual basis”. “No blanket exemptions” merely means what it says – people will not be assessed as an age class.
I think Landers got it wrong.
by lizzie on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:20 pm
Barking
loved your turn of phrase,
by my say on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:21 pm
Dee… twitter is busy
SpudBenBean Duchess Potato
by geeksrulz
Press gallery wetting themselves over AFR article, yet NEVER question Abbott’s inconsistencies, lies, policy deficit & budget black holes.
by david on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:22 pm
I heard the PM say the same.
Well it is Their ABC.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:22 pm
some exemptions
by sprocket_ on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:22 pm
Its old news rehashed even Lyndal Cutis says this that is why the Prime Minister said the story has no veracity.
by canasta76 on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:22 pm
yes lizzie heard that too
by my say on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:24 pm
Frank
They misconstrue a detail like this and then build a whole story on it. Really, the quality of media is shocking.
Meanwhile they’re getting all hot and breathless over a very old report which didn’t even get passed by the Cabinet. They’re ridiculous.
by lizzie on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:24 pm
Live via broadband from Malaysia.
Amnesty International is not happy.
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:25 pm
I asked Ms Crabb on her live blog why she and the majority of her collegues ignored Abbotts lies on the Carbon price, on businesses closing, why they never asked the hard questions at his PC’s and why they were too spineless to have him on about his running for cover when he didn’t like the questions???
She deleted, no publish.
by david on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:26 pm
And won’t be unless it’s no hold barred like the Greens policy.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:27 pm
david,
She probably filters out “spine.”
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:28 pm
If these journos including the moronic backstabber riley were doctors they would be classified QUACKS
by canasta76 on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:28 pm
Interviewer on ABC24 coaching & prodding for criticism of The Malaysian deal.
by Dee on Jul 25, 2011 at 4:28 pm