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Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it's bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44

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GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.

The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.

UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.

UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:

In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …

People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2164 comments

2,164 thoughts on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

  1. Glen

    Well the polls have solidified at 55-45 Coalition ahead.

    Carbon Tax Up 2 = MOE

    All is happy in the land of Milk and Tone.

  2. The Finnigans

    [Gusface, I was poking fun at Finns’ hostility to Japan, rather than engaging in it myself.]

    Bilbo, you got a sense of humour!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  3. zoidlord

    @Glen i think you need to TONE down your exuberant chatter.

  4. gusface

    finns

    if kev can get a new aorta, bilbo can get a new funny bone

    😀

  5. confessions

    [Well the polls have solidified at 55-45 Coalition ahead.]

    Poss called this months ago IIRC.

    Early days, early days.

  6. gusface

    [All is happy in the land of Milk and Tone.]

    Glen

    aamoi

    How often do you ahem, milk Tone?

  7. BigBob

    Abbott will be far from happy – the precious is so close but so far away!

  8. Glen

    Gussy

    Tone is the honey 🙂

    Sweet but sticky and attracts insects 😆

  9. Frank Calabrese

    [gusface

    Posted Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    All is happy in the land of Milk and Tone.

    Glen

    aamoi

    How often do you ahem, milk Tone?
    ]

    Espexially as he resigned from the Libs because of Tone.

    Methinks he has a secret mancrush on his budgies 🙂

  10. The Finnigans

    BTW Bilbo, i like Japan very much.

    In fact, we were booked to go to Tohoku – Sendai, Mitsushima etc. Well, someone organised the Earthquake and Tsunami and stopped me going there.

  11. BigBob

    Finns,

    Knowing the welcome for dolphins such as yourself in parts of Japan, the cancellation was probably fortunate.

  12. William Bowe

    [BTW Bilbo, i like Japan very much.]

    When I like a country, I too repeatedly bark “SHAME!” at it as it pulls thousands of bodies from the rubble of its ruined towns and cities.

  13. zoidlord

    @Finns, I was saving up to goto Japan later this year/early next year, because friends went there in Nov last year, they had an awesome time.

    Since the Tsunami/Earthquake, we are now looking at China at end of 2012, one of the friends went to Japan has been to China a few times.

  14. GhostWhoVotes

    In Queensland the primaries are ALP 32 L/NP 54 GRN 8, giving a 2PP of ALP 41 L/NP 59.

  15. gusface

    Finns

    “I like chinese, their funny little knees, their cute and cuddly, and ready to please”

    Monty Python

  16. george

    [sloppy on lateline]

    Pass 🙁

  17. rummel

    So even with Abbott out of the picture for just under a week, Gillard still cant peg back a few points.

  18. Frank Calabrese

    [16

    GhostWhoVotes

    Posted Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    In Queensland the primaries are ALP 32 L/NP 54 GRN 8, giving a 2PP of ALP 41 L/NP 59.
    ]
    Hmm, I wonder if therre are similar stories for other states ?

  19. William Bowe

    Actually Rummel, it has been noted before that Abbott’s ratings have tended to go up when he’s “out of the picture”.

  20. Glen

    [In Queensland the primaries are ALP 32 L/NP 54 GRN 8, giving a 2PP of ALP 41 L/NP 59.]

    That’s the enda Swanny 😆

  21. Frank Calabrese

    [rummel

    Posted Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    So even with Abbott out of the picture for just under a week, Gillard still cant peg back a few points.
    ]

    It was commisioned by a group with a vested interest.

  22. The Finnigans

    [ it pulls thousands of bodies from the rubble of its ruined towns and cities.]

    Bilbo, you talking about Nanjing then?

  23. rummel

    Really, lucky he is out of the country for another two weeks.

  24. gusface

    [That’s the enda Swanny ]

    big call

    🙁

  25. george

    [Since the Tsunami/Earthquake, we are now looking at China at end of 2012, one of the friends went to Japan has been to China a few times]

    Off to Shanghai and Beijing in a few months – can’t wait 🙂

  26. Benji

    I am surprised the primary vote is higher in QLD than nationally.

  27. Glen

    [It was commisioned by a group with a vested interest.]

    True but Frank Galaxy do make reliable polls and this ones a biggun 🙂

    When Galaxy says your this far behind you usually are…

  28. confessions

    [So even with Abbott out of the picture for just under a week, Gillard still cant peg back a few points.]

    The coalition vote appears to increase when Tone is out of the media. At least that’s been the experience in the past.

  29. gusface

    [Bilbo, you talking about Nanjing then?]

    Nup

    Fukushima

  30. Glen

    [The coalition vote appears to increase when Tone is out of the media. At least that’s been the experience in the past.]

    Then Fess i say Tone have another week off 😆

  31. Diogenes

    [When I like a country, I too repeatedly bark “SHAME!” at it as it pulls thousands of bodies from the rubble of its ruined towns and cities.]

    Finns clearly missed his calling as a grief counsellor.

  32. gusface

    Fess

    poll done while Abbott was here

  33. rummel

    “It was commisioned by a group with a vested interest.”

    We that also discounts the IPCC, every green NGO, the greens under Bob Brown from ever commenting on CC

  34. The Finnigans

    Diog, as usual i flunked.

  35. gusface

    dio

    just for you

    [IAM_SHAKESPEARE THERSITES. The plague of Greece upon thee, thou mongrel beef-witted ]

  36. Benji

    With primaries ALP 31, LNP 48, G 13, should the TPP be closer to 45:55, given Newspoll was 44:56 with primaries ALP 29, LNP 47, G 13?

  37. The Finnigans

    Higher than the Twin Tower then.

    [Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal unveiled plans Tuesday to build the world’s tallest tower in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah, signing a 4.6 billion riyal ($1.15 billion) contract with Bin Laden Group.

    The proposed tower, which will rise more than 1,000 metres and take just over five years to complete, is the centrepiece of the planned Kingdom City development being built outside Jeddah by Prince Alwaleed’s Kingdom Holding.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/executive-style/saudi-billionaire-to-build-worlds-tallest-tower-20110803-1iapt.html#ixzz1Ty9Uyofa

  38. BigBob

    56:44 two years out from an election

    Not good, but certainly able to be turned around.

    Anyone who thinks the election will be more than 52:48 either way is backing a long shot.

  39. drake

    GhostWhoVotes,

    My wife keeps hounding me to tell you ‘your cool’.

    She likes the mysterious types, apparently.

  40. gusface

    [Anyone who thinks the election will be more than 52:48 either way is backing a long shot]

    Ha

    ye of little faith

    labor to win 100 seats

    😉

  41. Glen

    Ghost

    We like you too much to call Ghostbusters 🙂

  42. Diogenes

    Finns

    The Bin Laden Group are the largest building contractors in Saudi. They disowned Osama a long time ago. He was a lazy sod when he worked for them anyway.

  43. Glen

    [Ha

    ye of little faith

    labor to win 100 seats]

    Bullbutter Gussy

    Stop the Hubris! 😆

  44. The Finnigans

    Diog, who are “they”?

  45. confessions

    [Then Fess i say Tone have another week off ]

    I’m sure Liberals are saying the same thing Glen.

  46. gusface

    glen

    even when staring down the barrel, I will be forever the optimist

    🙂

  47. The Finnigans

    Onya Gus, we won in NSW didnt we?