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Federal Election 2010

Oct 11, 2011

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The Australian reports the latest Newspoll (the first in three weeks, following a break for the long weekend) has Labor recovering three points from their record low primary vote last time, but continuing to languish on 29 per cent. The Coalition also picked up a point on the primary vote, to 49 per cent, and maintains a two-party preferred lead of 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. The Greens have dropped a point to 12 per cent, with “others” taking most of the damage from the higher major party vote. The Prime Minister’s personal ratings remain dismally low, with approval up a point to 28 per cent and disapproval down one to 60 per cent. Tony Abbott is up slightly, by two points on approval to 36 per cent with disapproval down a point to 53 per cent. The preferred prime minister is unchanged with Abbott leading 40 per cent to 35 per cent. Newspoll has also has responses for best party to handle various issues: these have Labor going back on all measures since the question was last asked before the election, which is entirely predictable given the normal pattern of these responses following in the direction of voting intention.

This follows today’s Essential Research poll which had the Coalition lead steady at 55-45, from primary votes of 33 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (both steady), and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Further questions suggest the public has trouble distinguishing between the four independents: those who back the government, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie, all have approval ratings of 23 per cent or 24 per cent and disapproval ratings of between 32 per cent to 34 per cent. Bob Katter performs slightly better, with 27 per cent approval and 36 per cent disapproval. The broad hostility to the independents individually is reflected by the unpopularity of the balance of power arrangement overall. Only 22 per cent consider it to have been good for Australia – a substantial worsening since polls in the early part of the year, the more recent of which (on June 6) had it at 28 per cent. The bad rating is up from 39 per cent to 50 per cent.

Questions on poker machine reform suggest that while Clubs Australia’s grand finals advertising blitz may have had some impact, the public remains strongly in favour of mandatory pre-commitment on poker machines. The level of support is down to 61 per cent from 67 per cent four weeks ago, which opposition up five points to 30 per cent. Respondents were also asked to nominate a figure which “reflects the social cost of problem gamblers in Australia”, and opponents seemed reluctant to do so: 42 per cent opted for don’t know compared with 25 per cent among supporters. Those that did name a figure tended to come in at well below the $4.7 billion indicated by the Productivity Commission, with options of $1 billion or lower chosen by 44 per cent ($100 million being the most favoured), compared with 9 per cent for $5 billion and 5 per cent for $10 billion. Once appraised of the Productivity Commission result, support for pokies reform returned roughly to the level it was at four weeks ago. Respondents were also advised that 2.7 per cent of poker machine revenue was invested into the community, and it seems that for some this was enough: support for reform then came down to 57 per cent, with opposition at 31 per cent.

Misha Schubert of the Sydney Morning Herald has also brought tidings of a Galaxy poll of the electorate of Melbourne which shows Greens incumbent Adam Bandt headed for an easy victory regardless of what the Liberals do with their preference recommendation. Bandt’s primary vote is at 44 per cent against 29 per cent for Labor and 23 per cent for the Liberals, which compares with respective results at last year’s election of 36.2 per cent, 38.1 per cent and 21.0 per cent. This would translate into a 65-35 win for Bandt if Liberal and other preferences were allocated as per the 2010 election result: an anti-Labor swing of 9 per cent in Labor-versus-Greens. We are told that if the Liberals put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference recommendation, as they did to such devastating effect at the Victorian state election, Bandt would still emerge 56-44 in front – exactly the result he achieved at the election. This result appears to have been arrived at by splitting Liberal preferences 60-40 in Labor’s favour rather than the usual 80-20, which seems soundly based on results from the state election. The poll was conducted two weeks ago from an unspecified sample size, and I’m guessing was conducted for a corporate or peak body client (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that the article notes it was conducted for the Greens).

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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5297 comments

5,297 thoughts on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

  1. I thought this was good from the Faine interview:

    [Every action of the Opposition here has been about politics, and about themselves. […] It hasn’t been about border security, its not about appropriate treatment of refugees, all its ever been about is the political interest of the Opposition.]

  2. confessions

    [Reading the transcript of the interview between Combet and Uhlmann was astounded at the questions Uhlmann put to the minister.

    The ABC is no longer about journalism, it’s now all about cheap gotchas and smarmy News ltd talking points.]
    Far more astounding was that anybody could think Greg Combat(sic) would be troubled in the least by such nonsense. Someone has obviously not been taking notice.

  3. Ian at 5217

    …………..There is another side to the BER story. This is mine;

    Great story ….. should be the lead sentence in a new BER advert

  4. Amazingly quiet on talkback radio here in Perth – on just about every burning issue.

    Radio Redneck – 6PR- with Liberal Party mouthpiece Paul Murray, is having a love-in with the station’s 50th anniversary. Although, Sattler was doing his usual rant last night

    Meanwhile over a Auntie, Jeff Hutchinson is off somewhere and some lacklustre fill-in is talking about the danger on travelling on buses at night. This latter issue has generated heaps of calls while touting for comments on the AS has almost drawn a blank.

    It is eerie to say the least.

    Even when the lacklustre one talked to Shire President of Northam where 600 AS’s are to be held, it was almost ho-hum, business as usual, and no big deal.

    I just wonder if, now that Labor’s hand has been forced on the issue of AS, the current, on the ground impact, is much less than one would have thought. Just maybe, the progressive side of politics has actually pulled the conservatives teeth on this one.

    Mind you, the West was at its Liberal supporting best with the headline “Julia Opens the Door”. But at least it is running true to form.

  5. my say

    [Paroti I am surprised u are a one issue re policy person

    The big thing s. hecs, pbs, ect dont worry you, the lose off ect I never cool on the party that cares ]
    I would not vote for the Coalition even at gun point. However the race to go hairy chest for hairy chest by Labor with the Coalition over AS was very disappointing. It meant looking at Green or even and Independent.
    However though still disappointed in the AS issue the government with the MRRT,NBN,CP,Ciggies,Pokies etc makes up for that disappointment a zillion times over. So Goooooooo Julia !!! 🙂

  6. I heard the first part of Faines show thismorning.
    He made a fool of himself with his “two PM‘s” jibe.
    Worse he showed contempt for his audience by doing it.
    Its as if he thinks his audience are the same type of morons that listen to low-rent Talkback such as MTR.

  7. http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/10/13/the-web-of-vested-interests-behind-the-anti-wind-farm-lobby/

    Worth a read, good chart included.

    [Thursday, 13 October 2011 / 64 comments
    The web of vested interests behind the anti-wind farm lobby
    by Simon Chapman
    Following a July investigation by environmental correspondent Sandi Keane , a network analysis of links between the principal voices involved in demonising wind farms in Australia has been circulating in recent weeks.

    The network diagram shows connections between some of the principal individuals who have been vocal in opposing wind farm development in Australia, several organisations that are at the forefront of the opposition, the Institute of Public Affairs and its love-child the Australian Environment Foundation and the Victorian Liberal Party.]

  8. [I think it’s fair to say the PM has outflanked Abbott on boats. Ever since the govt decided to stare them down by defending the Malaysia deal and trying to get a legislative fix for the High Court ruling (remember that QT when the govt hammered the opposition over boats?), the coalition have been silent on the issue. At least two boats arrived since the HC decision, and Morrison has been nowhere to be seen.]

    confessions

    I’m sure everyone on PB – except those with dark side leanings – wants you to be right on this. But I don’t think either Abbott or Morrison believe that they have been out flanked on this issue. On the contrary, I think they are doing hand stands at the prospect of being able to parrott “stop the boats” once again at the next election, sucking a lot of air away from the issues that really do – or should – matter to the average punter.

    What WOULD have outflanked them would have been if the Malaysian solution was allowed to go ahead. They knew once that happened their whole argument was gone, because the boats would have stopped coming. As things stand, the only way the government could have out flanked Abbott was to call his bluff and take a bi partisan approach in trialling a Nauru solution and proving once and for all that it will not work.

    I heard Gillard with Faine this morning and she did sound impressive on this issue. She clearly believes that by dangling the Malaysian solution in front of Abbott every time a boat arrives and blaming him for it she can wrong foot him. But until it is PROVEN the Nauru solution is not viable, he can simply keep making the claim that it IS – and that he can stop the boats by using it. And he will have a very compliant shit stirring media to help him.

    I sincerely hope your take on it is right and mine is a pile of cow dung. But at present I’m just not convinced. .

  9. I agree, rishane. She said this after each of two clips Faine played, one of Morrison and one of Abbott, calling for Gillard and Bowen to resign and to call an election and saying she’d adopted Greens policies. In hindsight maybe it looks obvious, but my immediate reaction was that Gillard was pretty sharp to pick that up immediately and answer accordingly. It was particularly effective for the second clip. She’d already made that observation about the first one, so Faine inadvertently gave her a present by playing the second one, which only proved what she’d just said.

  10. That’s great parot
    One good thing about the I pad is u can sit out side

    Now back to the mongrel zip and black satin

    Why did I say yes to this project, cauce I love her
    The teaches ball will be fun I hope
    But next time no black satan

  11. Darn – agree with a lot of what you say. But what is Abbott’s stop-the-boats solution going to be at the next election? The high court won’t let him use Nauru; Labor and the Greens won’t give him the power for an off-shore solution, that is very clear. So he might sound a bit impotent on this issue.

  12. Bloody hell…

    [HOMELESSNESS TOUCHES SCHOOLS

    At the headquarters of the Jefferson County School District in Golden, the marble lobby and two-story atrium attest to the level of comfort that has traditionally framed life here. Upstairs, three increasingly busy staff members in cubicles underscore how times have changed.

    The three staff members serve as the school system’s homeless liaisons. They verify reports that a student is homeless, which can be defined as living in a motel, at a shelter or bunking with friends or relatives on a temporary basis. They offer what aid they can muster.

    A decade ago, the district verified that 59 students were homeless. In the last academic year, the number came in at 2,800. This year, only two months into a new academic term, the district has already found nearly 2,000 homeless students.

    “We have homelessness everywhere,” says homeless liaison Sheree Conyers. “We literally get e-mails and phone calls all day long. Younger people are moving back in with their parents, doubling up. Parents are taking in their kids and their kids’ kids because there is nowhere else for them to go.”

    At Parr Elementary School, a tidy facility in a traditionally middle class neighborhood in the north of the county, where leafy streets are lined with brick homes on well-tended lawns, 28 percent of the student body was homeless at some point during the year.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/13/suburban-povertys-dramati_n_1007332.html?page=3

  13. [Sprocket is yet to tell us who the guility party was. i will go with Jennifer Hewitt
    ]

    for those wondering who the anti ALP journalist was, yes it was Jennifer Hewitt from the Australian – you could have been listening to a female version of Tony Abbott, with the memorised talking points

    there is a no doubt in my mind that this is a concerted attempt at regime change

  14. Zoomster,

    How predictable. I express my support for Anna Burke, a Labor MP, and am the recipient of another boring, tedious ad hominem attack of the innuendo and insinuation type that reflects on you not me.
    [wasn’t that dishonest of you? Did you tell her you voted Green at the last election, and put the Libs second? Or did you say ‘I’ve been a labor voter all my life, but…’]

    My past voting record is irrelevant.

    I put the Libs second-last not second 😉
    [And will you vote for her at the next election? And if so, doesn’t that conflict with your membership of the Greens?]

    I have stated here that I would cast an informal vote at the next federal election therefore no political party would get my vote, including the Greens Party of which I am a member and whose AS policy I support.

    Go figure, I have principles that I will not comprise, on issues that are paramount to me.

    When I cast my vote for Anna Burke, I will vote #1 Greens, #2 Burke which given the seat of Chisholm and our preferential voting system translates into a vote for Burke, something you appear to understand given your first comment above.

    I realize that this may be difficult for you to understand but I do not give unconditional support to the Greens Party because I am a member, something I have also stated several times.

    I repeat yet again – I became a member because I wish to support a viable third party that can counter the current political duopoly. This reason determines the way I vote at any given election.

    Many thanks for providing me with another opportunity to reiterate my position 🙂

  15. [The raft of opportunities and new programs now available to these kids seemed an endless list and I know my two are very excited about which ones they want to get involved with.]

    Sk – just back from the village and saw your post. Drove past our school and the kids were all under their new covered area, adjacent to the school hall. The hall is booked every week day after school for exercise classes and similar and the money goes directly to the school. How great is that.

    Don’t get any hopes up that it changes votes tho. The new school hall was our election booth and I can tell you that the Labor vote went down. The oldies talked about it being a waste of money which should have been spent on them and some of the tradies complained because they could have done it cheaper themselves.

    Abbott and his henchmen at Murdochia did a good job of trashing the BER program but Labor forgot to promote it properly through the campaign.

  16. [Abbott and his henchmen at Murdochia did a good job of trashing the BER program but Labor forgot to promote it properly through the campaign.]
    BH
    And that – on both counts – gives me the s***s!

  17. Darn – agree with a lot of what you say. But what is Abbott’s stop-the-boats solution going to be at the next election? The high court won’t let him use Nauru; Labor and the Greens won’t give him the power for an off-shore solution, that is very clear. So he might sound a bit impotent on this issue.

    His solution will be “We’ll stop the boats.” He’s not the kind of man to let details get in the way of a good slogan. If the High Court hasn’t expressly said he can’t use Nauru, that’ll be good enough for him.

    The MSM won’t necessarily back him up on this. They’re about as interested in the details as he is. They’ll just be interested in seeing how it plays out politically, that is, what the polls are telling them about it. He wins if enough people are convinced his claptrap is viable.

    Nobody, apparently, is in the business of determining whether it really is viable or not. That’s outside the scope of political journalism these days.

  18. [abbott to address menzies research centre coming up, throwing up!]

    “Cutting government spending…”

    stop me if you’ve heard this one before

  19. [listened to Fran Kelly this morning with her panel of:

    Paul Bongiorno – TEN
    Peter Hartcher – SMH
    Jennifer Hewitt – Australian]

    That’s what the ABC these days calls a “balanced panel.” It covers all shades of opinion: From the Right to the Far Right.

  20. [Abbott begins his menzies address with “THE SKY IS FALLING”… how surpisement]
    george
    And with that he would have that particular audience in his spell.

  21. Have to agree with darn that the boat issue is a big negative for Gillard and Labor regardless of the fact they finally arrived at the right decision. The problem is the roads they took to get there were littered with so many poor decisions. Rudd was right on 23 June 2010 when he cautioned Labor not to move too far to the right on the issue, they did and now they will have to let the consequences wash through the polls.

  22. [But I don’t think either Abbott or Morrison believe that they have been out flanked on this issue.]

    I’m sure they don’t. But at present they don’t have a credible policy on boats.

    The HC ruling has changed the game, and the coalition’s refusal to support the govt’s amendments to the Act just looks like rank opportunism. They can crow about Nauru all they like, but the reality is that without amendments to the Migration Act, Nauru is out as well.

  23. BK, I have to admit those glasses make him sound like he knows what he’s talking about… however, he also reminds me of Homer Simpson:

    [And how is education supposed to make me feel smarter? Besides, every time I learn something new, it pushes some old stuff out of my brain. Remember when I took that home winemaking course, and I forgot how to drive?]

  24. George,pray that this Menzies House nut job is there and that he asks a question or a dozen.

    [The progressives knew exactly what their plan would be. Their blueprint became known as unrestricted political warfare.
    The first and most important rule of unrestricted political warfare is that there are no rules. Nothing is forbidden. The plan calls for merciless, unconventional out-of-the-box thinking………Just like using the ancient martial doctrines of leaders like Sun Tzu, the progressives focus on the time-proven methods of surprise and deception, particularly by “weaponising” civilian technologies and employing them without morality, mercy or limit in order to crush our democratic capitalist Australian society.
    So what do I mean by “weaponising” civilian technologies?

    Let me answer that question with this question – What is one of the most important technologies that touches every single home and business in Australia?

    If you said the “internet” you are wrong – it’s the second most important technology.

    The first is actually electricity. Now if electricity were weaponised, meaning the progressives had found a way to use it against the population, Australia would be devastated.]
    http://www.menzieshouse.com.au/2011/10/unrestricted-political-warfare-the-progressives-game-plan-exposed.html

  25. [Leroy
    Posted Friday, October 14, 2011 at 1:40 pm | Permalink
    Darn – wait for the Nauru class action]

    Leroy

    The sooner the better I say. I did hear something about this a short while back, but don’t know any of the details (if there ARE any). Do you have any further information.

  26. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    a REAL Dr Evil Moment – Opposition Leader Tony Abbott stops & repeats his claim carbon price will cost Australia ‘one trillion dollars!’]

    [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    ‘I’m not making this up,’ Opposition Leader Tony Abbott adds.]

  27. [They can crow about Nauru all they like, but the reality is that without amendments to the Migration Act, Nauru is out as well.]

    Probably, but as I say, until something happens to PROVE it is out, Abbott can keep on lying about it as he does with just about everything else.

  28. Sprocket
    [for those wondering who the anti ALP journalist was, yes it was Jennifer Hewitt from the Australian ]

    Actually my money was on Peter Hartcher whose column yesterday was full of seemingly deliberate mistakes and anti-ALP spin. He has also been positively salivating at the prospect an imminent Ruddstoration (despite there being a snowflake’s chance in Hell). Never underestimate the OO however.

  29. SPROCKET – Of course the Murdoch Propaganda Leaflet wants regime change. I think the Telstra shareholders are meeting tomorrow to approve the NBN and Murdoch will do whatever he can to destroy it.

  30. Meanwhile in NSW, Magistrate Maloney survived a dismissal application in the NSW upper house yesterday.

    He did so on the combination of votes from labor, greens, shooters, christians and the odd lib including David Clarke MLC, who, as a lib, makes Kevin Andrews look like a wet.

    The fun of a conscience vote – we should have more of them.

  31. BK – it gives most of us the irrits but the Oppn has to trash everything otherwise it will make the Howard legacy look very sick.

    We know what they are doing but most are too busy to listen carefully enough.

    Early this morning, Goldman on 2SM was waxing lyrical about Peter Costello’s wonderful record. He started it by saying that Swannie was o/s again and that his WGT award was an insult to Peter Costello. He said wtte that Swannie had wasted the surplus, is robbing the Future Fund and wasting the mining tax revenue. He said Swannie has absolutely trashed all the good work Costello did.

    Everything Goldman said was either a distortion or a misrepresentation of fact. He also told a caller that the listeners can complain all they like to ACMA but it doesn’t worry him because what he is doing is giving his opinion and that makes it OK.

  32. Horsey @ 5270

    Many thanks for providing me with another opportunity to reiterate my position 🙂

    And many thanks for again demonstrating what a confused and conflicted position that is! 👿

  33. Murdoch Rag outdoes itself
    +{+++++++++++++++++
    Even by Murdoch’s poisonous standards yesterday Herald-Sun in Melb. was a collectors item,
    A Three word headline “Kiss of Deceit” says it all…including the bonus of an “expert” in body-language saying that Julia smile while kissing Rudd was not”sincere”
    How wonderfull tbat we have such experts close to Murdoch’s throne

    but no mention in” The Hun” of the new scandal in London where it appears that Murdoch’s minions have actually been buying up copies of “The Wall Street Journal:” which now sells daily in many European capitals…the problem is that few copies are being sold,so to boost the sales figures…which affects advertising costs… Murdoch’s men have been buying up copies of their own paper to falsify the sales figure…and now have been found out and some bigshots have resigned…it’s called fraud in the real world…is there nothing the old monster will stop at???
    .(the answer is no)