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Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon ta

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The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon tax and the government’s new policy on asylum seekers), records a sharp move to Labor: the Coalition’s lead on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure is down to 52.5-47.5 from 57-43 at the last poll, which covered the weekends of September 24-25 and October 1-2. Labor has actually drawn level on the two-party measure that allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election – the measure favoured by all other pollsters – after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. Labor’s primary vote is up three point to 38.5 per cent and the Coalition is down three to 43.5 per cent with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent, which are all very similar to the results at last year’s election. On all measures this is Labor’s best result since March. Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences on the respondent-allocated measure is 50 per cent compared with 42 per cent last time, but still very different from the 65.7 per cent at the election, hence the ongoing difference between the two Morgan two-party preferred measures. Since the poll was conducted at the same time as the most recent Newspoll and Essential Research polls, neither of which showed any change, a considerable measure of caution is advised.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1993 comments

1,993 thoughts on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

  1. geoffrey

    well well well please explain

  2. george

    [Well well!!]

    Well well indeed!!!

  3. poroti

    BK gets the gold medal placing.:)

  4. geoffrey

    I dont deserve it if this poll means anything

  5. poroti

    geoffrey

    This deserves a definite Well Well Well.
    [In the first face-to-face Morgan Poll Morgan Poll taken after the Gillard Government Tax Forum shows a sharp rise in support for the ALP 47.5% (up 4.5%)]

  6. victoria

    Are my eyes playing tricks on me!!!!

  7. BK

    A veritable well of “well wells”.

  8. sprocket_

    [and using the previous election preference measure Labor has drawn level ]

    does this mean what it actually says William?

  9. BK

    I bet this poll gets the silent treatment in the MSM.

  10. zoomster

    Just to avert the evil eye (and because I’m not used to making positive comments on polls)….when you factor in the usual Morgan poll bias towards Labor, the Coalition actually leads 95/5.

  11. victoria

    BK

    We seem to be giving it the silent treatment as well!!!!

  12. david

    There is a God, hallelujah!!!!!

  13. ShiftyPhil

    I think a lot of people are still in shock.

  14. sprocket_

    the real question is, has labor peaked too early?

  15. BK

    [BK

    We seem to be giving it the silent treatment as well!!!!]
    vic
    Misplaced hubris has a nasty knack of biting one back.

  16. victoria

    BK

    Agreed. I truly dont know what to make of it

  17. hugh moran

    The MSM will dismiss the poll calling it an outlier. Then back to business as usual.

  18. WeWantPaul

    Zoomy beat me but yes when you factor in the house bais, admit Morgan is rubbish that you never pay attention to anyway and remember that labor is evil and only does good when the greens force then too the clearly the poll is -200 / 100 / 100 : lab / green / lib

  19. poroti

    Now while everyone is picking their jaws up off the ground and checking they have the right reading glasses hopefully William can put an expert’s view of it.

  20. Darc

    Burgey/everyone, I did it, all by myself! The first time I have ever been polled. And by Morgan, last weekend. The obliging chap was asking me in my lounge room who I’d vote for as I was screaming at the TV during the Wallabies v SA. Boy, did he get both barrels of an answer. And all from the “Tory wasteland” – as a friend described north of the Sydney Harbour bridge – electorate of Bradfield, formerly held by that pillock Nelson and now held by that pillock whose name I choose to forget.

  21. Space Kidette

    Till the next one that shows labor clawing back even more.

  22. victoria

    SK

    I am shocked I tell you

  23. DavidWH

    It would be remarkable if it carries through to Nielsen next week. Morgan seems to be placing a lot of emphasis on the tax summit but that was hardly a big swing event.

    Anyway well done PB’ers. You haven’t had many polls to crow about lately.

  24. Space Kidette

    Darc,

    You have made my day. I am laughing my head off. Pillock, indeed! 😀 😆 😀

  25. Gweeds

    I have read people here rubbishing Morgan when it went against the ALP, so I guess it should be the same when it swings towards us.

    I also think that alas the asylum seeker issue will bring back the ALP to lower levels. There is something poisonous about that issue and the ALP, they can’t win. Of course the predicament they find themselves in is totally of their own making.

  26. shellbell

    Meanwhile in NSW, Magistrate Maloney survived a dismissal application in the NSW upper house yesterday.

    He did so on the combination of votes from labor, greens, shooters, christians and the odd lib including David Clarke MLC, who, as a lib, makes Kevin Andrews look like a wet.

    The fun of a conscience vote – we should have more of them.

  27. William Bowe

    [Now while everyone is picking their jaws up off the ground and checking they have the right reading glasses hopefully William can put an expert’s view of it.]

    I think it’s a rogue.

  28. Space Kidette

    victoria,

    I hope we have seen peak abbott. Hubris brings even the biggest tossers down.

  29. victoria

    SK

    The msm are still cheering him on. I cant see it happening just yet

  30. Greensborough Growler

    William,

    I think you’re a rogue.

  31. zoidlord

    I must be blind…… Is there a margin of error ?

  32. geoffrey

    what is a rogue poll? are morgan methods incompetent?

  33. poroti

    Darc

    [Burgey/everyone, I did it, all by myself! The first time I have ever been polled. And by Morgan, last weekend.]
    Take a bow on lifting the spirits of thousands of Labor voters 🙂 .Apparently you have Paul Fletcher as your MP.

  34. Space Kidette

    [jonkudelka jon kudelka
    @
    @GrogsGamut Adding up is just one more victim of the carbon tax. @latikambourke
    ]

  35. Aguirre

    I think it’s a rogue.

    Yeah, it probably is. Funny thing about rogues though is that they always seem to overstate the direction the swing is going. So it’s safe to assume there’s something going back the ALP‘s way, though you can’t say it categorically of course.

    Where’s the supplementary – you know, the one that says under Rudd the ALP would be up 58-42 by now?

  36. victoria

    Darc

    Thanks! We need your enthusiasm!!

  37. Space Kidette

    William,

    While I don’t doubt your psephological genius, can you understand if I choose not to believe you, at least for a day? 😉

  38. victoria

    William Bowe

    It is most likely a rogue, but there is obviously movment back to the govt?

  39. drake

    William,

    Do you have a graph showing the moving average of the major polls? I remember you posted one in a headline a couple of months or more ago.

  40. William Bowe

    A rogue poll is an informal bit of terminology for that one poll out of 20 we can expect to be outside the margin of error, other things being equal. In this case the margin of error is about 3 per cent. As for the competence of Morgan’s methods, their face-to-face polling usually shows a pretty strong bias to Labor, although this has been less evident since their vote collapsed earlier this year.

  41. poroti

    Darc

    You are right you did do it. Your “rogue” Labor vote from Bradfield and next thing you know William declares the whole poll a rogue 🙂

  42. BK

    [movement]
    vic
    Let’s hope it gives Abbott a good dose of the movements.

  43. WeWantPaul

    You are probably right William but let’s hope them next 1000 polls show it isn’t

  44. Jeepers

    I think it’s a rogue.

    I think YOUR FACE is a rogue.
    Oh wait, this isn’t Twitter is it?

  45. victoria

    BK

    I am hoping the movement is a judo chop!

  46. Andrew

    so its 50/50 if you used the industry standard of preferences from last election. even as a rogue, its nice to see 🙂

  47. david

    I will take the rogue for now 😆 Hurry up sun get over the yardarm drinkies are in order, rogue or no rogue

  48. joe2

    Peeps have finally cottoned on that Tone is a rogue?