Newspoll: New England and Lyne
The Australian brings results of a Newspoll survey conducted from Tuesday to Saturday in Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott’s regional NSW seats of New England and Lyne. The polls targeted about 500 voters each, producing margins of error of a little under 4.5 per cent. As expected, the results indicate a plunge in support for the incumbents since the election and their subsequent decision to back a Labor minority government. In New England, the poll has Tony Windsor at 33 per cent compared with 61.9 per cent at the election, with the Nationals at 41 per cent compared with 25.2 per cent. In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott’s primary vote is at 26 per cent compared with 47.1 per cent at the 2010 election, and the Nationals are at 47 per cent compared with 34.4 per cent.
Determining two-candidate preferred results for individual electorates in circumstances so radically different from the previous election is problematic, and Newspoll has done the best that could be done under the circumstances by publishing both previous-election and respondent-allocated measures. In New England, the previous election measure has Windsor and the Nationals tied at 50-50. Unfortunately we do not have a full set of primary vote figures at this stage, but it would seem to me from the two-candidate result that the “others” vote (excluding Windsor, Nationals, Labor and Greens) must be in the mid-teens. UPDATE: Full tables here courtesy of GhostWhoVotes – “others” is at 14 per cent in Lyne and 13 per cent in New England. At the 2010 election it was only 1.2 per cent, that being the combined total for One Nation and the Citizens Electoral Council. To apply these parties’ preference distribution to such a large chunk of the vote is obviously imprecise at best. The respondent-allocated preference measure has Windsor trailing 53-47, but this has problems of its own – in particular it requires respondents to make up their own mind, when many will in fact follow how-to-vote cards.
In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott trails 62-38 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on the previous election results. Similarly to the New England poll, the latter figure appears to have been obtained by amplifying a mid-teens “others” vote through the 2010 preference distribution of one independent who polled 0.7 per cent. While this is by any measure a depressing set of figures for Oakeshott, it is a good deal better for him than a ReachTel automated phone poll conducted in August, which had the Nationals leading 55 per cent to 15 per cent on the primary vote. That poll was rightly criticised at the time for asking about the carbon tax and pokies reform before getting to voting intention. It may also raise doubts about the precision of automated phone polling, which in this country at least has a patchy record (though it seems to be a different story in the United States).
Another difficulty with polls for these two seats is that it is not yet clear which candidates the Nationals will be running, which can have a very significant bearing on regional seats especially. After initially stating he wasn’t interested, the party’s state leader Andrew Stoner has recently said he would “never say never” to the prospect of running in Lyne, with earlier reports suggesting he was being “courted” to make such a move with a view to replacing Warren Truss as federal leader. This was said to be partly motivated by a desire to block a similar move by Barnaby Joyce, who has declared his interest in New England. However, Tony Abbott has said the candidate in Lyne from 2010, Port Macquarie medical specialist David Gillespie, would get “wholehearted support” if he wanted to run again. According to a flattering profile of Abbott by Tom Dusevic in The Weekend Australian, Gillespie is a “boyhood friend” of Abbott’s.
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
815 Responses
Comments page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |« Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition | Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition »
Is mine the first comment?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon.?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 2:37 am
Puff, I kind of have a rule against doing that.
by on Oct 24, 2011 at 2:43 am
Bootstrapping masquarading as serious polling.
Newspoll and Ltd News are now offically a joke.
by on Oct 24, 2011 at 2:44 am
It appears that the voters of Lyne and New England wish to downgrade from representatives who hold unprecedented power in the parliament, with whom Prime Ministers and LOTOs negotiate, and whose words and every twitch of the eyebrow is noted and analysed, to having MPs from the Liberal’s Hand-Maiden Party tugging on coat-tails to get noticed.
Way to go people, way to go.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon.?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 2:57 am
OK, I kinda won’t do it anymore, Mr Killjoy.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon.?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 3:00 am
Now?
by rishane?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 3:14 am
I would not be surprised at all:
by on Oct 24, 2011 at 3:15 am
Well beyond a shadow of a doubt
by on Oct 24, 2011 at 3:15 am
This statement by JG suggests she does not really know what’s going in Europe. The Europeans have a deep structural problem with their currency that has been exposed by the collapse of the sub-prime credit bubble, protracted weak growth, a decade of fraud and the ensuing decay in public finances. The problems in Europe are very deep-seated and their fiscal crises cannot be fixed simply by restraining spending. In many cases, this will actually cause deeper destruction of public revenues (such as in Greece). Their credit markets have ceased to function. Their banking system is essentially insolvent. In some places, economies have not yet emerged from the 2008 contraction. The European economic order is unsustainable and will have to be radically reconstructed.
Meanwhile in America, 30 years of misrule have resulted in the wholesale destruction of public finances and the hollowing out of the incomes and security of working Americans. Obama is just the latest President to go along with laissez-faire policies in financial markets and to fail to implement deeply-needed tax reform in favour of low and middle-income earners.
by briefly?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 3:34 am
Puff @ 4
It doesn’t matter which of the two major parties win a majority at the next election, but should Windsor and/ or Oakeshott be re-elected they will be relegated to the political sidelines from whence they came.
by blackburnpseph?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 4:20 am
More headline polling.
Why conduct these two polls? Oh thats right, the Indies should resign because they are unpopular. Or could it be to produce more column inches of twaddle?
by ruawake?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 5:48 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Newspoll for New England (50-50) and Lyne (Oakeshott trails 55-45) – News Ltd is still hellbent on regime change #auspol
37 seconds ago
by The Finnigans?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 6:23 am
To be consistent, Julie Bishop must bag Indonesia’s President for intervening in the Bali boy case. Will any journo hold her to account?
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/president-intervenes-in-teens-case-20111023-1memr.html#ixzz1bdTNB8De
by kezza2?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 6:44 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Nothing worthwhile at the “new” OO.
Peter FitzSimmons has a good read in the SMH.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/cut-the-curtsy-were-australian-20111022-1mdaa.html
Ron Tandberg on the “Occupy” movement.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
by BK?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 6:53 am
Haircut anyone?
http://www.americablog.com/2011/10/eurozone-banks-told-to-eat-losses-on.html
Great US cartoon about Bush’s Iraq war and what it has done.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2011/10/23/cartoons-of-the-day-iraq-war-over/iraqwar1/
by BK?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 7:00 am
briefly @ 9
Your comment on Leroy’s post at 2467 is fine analysis, if you take the opening gambit of Paul Kelly’s article at face value.
However, later in the article Paul Kelly quotes what JG said about the US:
There’s a world of difference between “pursuing the right strategy” and “has the right strategy,” and to me JG is having a diplomatic sideswipe to the Repugs tea party tactics of blocking any progressive reform.
On the European issue, JG was quite tough. But on the eve of the G20 she also acknowledged the difficulties they face in “fixing” the fiscal crisis because of the restrictions of a single EU currency.
I think JG is learning foreign affairs on the job and treading carefully, as she should.
by kezza2?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 7:03 am
Morning BK
Great cartoon by Tanberg.
And your link to America Blog spells out the succinctly the enormity of Europe’s fiscal woes that JG was rightly referring to in the interview with Paul Kelly. We are so lucky to have escaped the GFC round 1 because of Labor’s excellent handling of the crisis and despite the structural deficit left by Howard and Costello.
by kezza2?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 7:11 am
Rick Perry is getting desperate.
http://crooksandliars.com/karoli/desperate-rick-perry-goes-full-tilt-birther
Bill Maher’s New Rules segment.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385×627778
by BK?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 7:12 am
Actress Kathy Bates really wants Obama to fight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=it2Xkqns75c
by BK?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 7:22 am
Morning all.
Regarding the poll, and putting aside the obvious bootstrapping exercise in the explanation, it is an interesting answer to a very complex question. Would Windsor have a better or worse chance of re-election if Labor had an opposing candidate who then directed preferences to Windsor ahead of the Nationals? I suspect yes, because it might help Windsor to emphasise the difference between him and Labor.
by Socrates?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 7:36 am
As for The Australian’s write up of the poll, it is another example of why I don’t read the rag any more. Note this lead comment:
How can it be a popular revolt against the carbon tax when the carbon tax numbers are strictly on party lines?
by Socrates?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 7:38 am
Windsor is the only one with the chance of holding on, and this polling comes when the Nationals are not campaigning in the seats.
When the election is closer, I expect the National will link Windsor directly to the ALP, a vote for Windsor is a vote for the ALP, which will be poison in a conservative seat.
Also as Basselling found out in the NSW election. Windsor and Oakeshoot will have more problems getting funding from local businesses, which will be major obsticles for reelection.
I expect Windsor will retire prior to the election
by dovif?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 7:45 am
Warning – these pictures may disturb some viewers.
by jaundiced view?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 7:56 am
kezza2
We have a debt crisis, the fact is most of the world had created growth by borrowing from future generations. This debt has to eventually be repaid.
The European’s problems is a few countries, the PIGSS, had borrowed too much, and do not have a way of repaying. Since they are in the Euro Zone, unlike America, they cannot devalue their currency to make the borrowing smaller. The European also Nationalised a few banks, but these are one of events, the main problems are the budget deficits.
I do not think Obama had got it remotely right, when the problem is debt, borrowing more is not going to solve the problems. Every $ borrowed is going to require at least $2 to be repaid in the future. Obama’s strategy seem to be to devalue the US$ by another 50%, and think that will solve the problem. I suspect Obama knows he should not be doing what he is at the moment, but there is an election coming up…
I do not think the Republicans will get it right remotely either. A Flat tax… really, REALLY
by dovif?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 7:59 am
dovif
What is our debt crisis?
by kezza2?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:02 am
morning bludgers
Another deadly earthquake. This time Turkey.
by victoria?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:02 am
Good morning, fellow Bludgers!
The sun is up.
The birds are singing.
Labor is still in government.
Julia Gillard is still Prime Minister.
Wayne Swan is the World’s Greatest Treasurer.
It is now well established that Andrew Bolt is a dickhead.
All is right with the world.
PS Interesting results in the Indies’ electorates. Pretty much as expected. Even more expected was that The Australian would bootstrap at this point in time. Yeah, we get that you want the Indies gone and for the government to fall, but wishing, hoping, thinking and praying ain’t going to do it. Sucked in.
Off to earn a crust again today: be good little Bludgers.
See ya round like a record!
by Danny Lewis?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:05 am
considering the relentless negative campaigning in the seats of Lyne and New England, I think the figures are not as bad as I had anticipated.
by victoria?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:05 am
DL
Dont work too hard!
by victoria?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:06 am
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/stars–swipes-20111022-1mdpa.html
Guy Rundle on anglosphere perceptions of Europe, especially Northern Europe & France.
by Leroy?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:11 am
This gave me a chuckle
by victoria?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:13 am
The Newspoll tables:
http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/newspoll-111024-independents.pdf
by on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:22 am
Sadly, there are no LNP outrage stories in the Courier Mail or Brisbane Times this morning. There is this Regional report on Andrew Fraser’s comments on the KAP.
http://www.northweststar.com.au/news/local/news/general/katter-party-a-threat-fraser/2333205.aspx
More in the article.
by Leroy?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:23 am
kezza2
We do not have a debt crisis, competant government put us in a good financial position.
The Europeans and US ran budget deficits during the 90s and 00s, when they should have been repaying their debt, after the last round of GFC, they now have so much debt, that interest payments are a big part of their budget.
So while Australians can use more of our taxes to pay for Education, Health Etc. The US and Europeans are using this money to pay interest to the lenders.
by dovif?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:25 am
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/10772732/power-centre-switches-from-canberra-to-perth/
More in the article.
by Leroy?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:27 am
William, those two figures should be the other way around.
by on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:28 am
If only the journalists were doing their jobs
Swann: Howard’s government left us in a structural deficit.
Interviewer: So they spend too much and offered too much tax cuts?
Swann: Yes
Interviewer: So how much spending cuts did you slash in your first budget?
Swann: Nothing
Interviewer: So did you remove Howard’s tax cuts?
Swann: No, we gave them out as our own tax cuts.
Interviewer: So there was no “structural deficits” If there was, you would have done something?
Swann: What is a budget again?
by dovif?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:29 am
Thanks GWV
by victoria?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:29 am
Tony Windsor’s still got a good chance of holding New England at the next election, but I wouldn’t be quite as optimistic about Oakeshott’s chances in Lyne.
by Thornleigh Labor Man?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:34 am
Fairfax’s Phillip Coorey argues today that the next few weeks of international diplomacy provide the PM with the perfect opportunity to strut the world stage – Labor performs better when Abbott is sidelined:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gillard-buys-some-time-with-a-roundtheworld-ticket-20111023-1meaz.html
by Thornleigh Labor Man?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:36 am
Windsor would be pretty happy at 50-50 this far out, will surely get a bounce when as he said this morning “the sky doesn’t fall in”
Oakeshott is in more trouble but 2 years is a long time in politics
One thing this polling does is kill off any possibility of them pulling the plug on the government, they will want to get as much out of the next 2 years as possible – not that they were going to change anyway
Windsor’s interview on Radio National was interesting for a couple of other reason – a misunderstanding around his satisfaction ratings, same as on here as clarified by GHV a few minutes back. Also when asked about the Labor leadership he talked about Turnbull leading the Liberals – is this the combination Savva was talking about???
by womble?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:41 am
GWV sorry
by womble?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:42 am
womble
I did not hear Windsor this morning. But I suspect that Abbott’s leadership is under threat at the moment. His warning to business not to buy permits, might be making some of his own very nervous. Not surprised if Turnbull is considering making a move.
by victoria?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:44 am
by Leroy?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:55 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/quigley-has-nothing-for-libs/story-e6frgaif-1226174546087
more in the article
by Leroy?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:56 am
Victoria
Yeah when the opposition is leading 57-43 or 56-44 in 2PP, their leader is always in trouble.
The facts are people would be stupid to buy permits, the EU had flooded their ETS markets to drive the prices of carbon permits to 6 Euros, the US plans on doing nothing. Copenhagen was a dismal failure, with China and India refusing to do anything. Unless US, China and India changes their mind significantly, the next round of climate talk will produce nothing.
Quite simply, if Business want certainty, they will throw their weight behind Abbott, which is what they are doing
by dovif?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 8:56 am
so what is california doing?
I suggest u refine your meme
by on Oct 24, 2011 at 9:01 am
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3596016.html
Worth a look
by Leroy?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 9:02 am
Dovif@46
Agree regards TPP.
Abbott is safe but how much certainty does Abbotts unfunded direct action plan give business.
Which polluting companies is he going to fund for example.
by arunta?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 9:03 am
I agree that this poll is a joke. Electorate polls are notoriously unreliable.
What is the sample size? What areas? What questions were asked?
For example were the respondents asked if they like their local member having that power and influence.
Would they vote again for that power and influence or against that due to decisions made?
I am no professional pollster but even I can see the questions asked can dramatically change the response. Publish the questions. The sample sizes.
Sample sizes are important. Below a certain sample size no statistic conclusion can be reached about voter intentions.
Even reporters covering poll results should start with the questions that were asked.
by guytaur?wpmp_switcher=mobile on Oct 24, 2011 at 9:07 am