Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
lizzie,
You’re the one making the big statement. You prove your assertion.
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:26 pm
No I don’t think marriage has dissapeared,
I still say for me any way its the ceramony of co mittment I value,yes love can fade being unfaithfull happens, sometimes people change, so e times they rush in marry the wrong person,
It end, but if you still care about each other and have married, its harder to leave for most
And if 4/10 marriages can be saved from previously committing to each other that’s a win of happi ess for all concerned.
by my say on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:28 pm
You mistake my meaning.
I AGREE there should be no discrimination in any way shape or form.
But a lot of people don’t see it that way. The effort to convince them/bypass them more easily happens if it is done in gradual steps.
Anything ‘in your face’ by the PM will stop reform rather than encourage it.
by jenauthor on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:29 pm
Darren Laver @ 1532
Dunno. Would you want one?
Can you lie, fabricate, distort etc? Naaah, I doubt you are up to it.
by bemused on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:29 pm
Looks like Kathy Jackson has had a number done on her today…
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/hsu-president-loses-noconfidence-vote-20111115-1ngms.html
by Mod Lib on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:30 pm
did someone say beefo??
by gusface on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:31 pm
Mod Lib,
Yeah, seems to have been an outbreak of democracy.
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:31 pm
She should have known not to put the little guys ahead of the machine eh?
by Mod Lib on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:32 pm
Darren Laver
Posted Tuesday, November 15, 2011 at 7:08 pm | Permalink
Darren Laver
I appreciate your ‘straw poll’ and the updates.
Can you provide the basis of your calculations?
You’re welcome.
Unconfirmed sources is all I can say!
Do you think I’d get a job at the Daily Telegraph?]
No chance at The Daily Telegraph, wrong party now if your straw poll substituted JG KR and SS as the players, yes you would be offered the job on your dreams at DT
by mari on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:33 pm
btw
gg
i am shock horror in agreement re marriage
it was origanally trashed by the gay lobby
why they want to claim a hetero institution is beyond me
by gusface on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:36 pm
Sprocket – why did I shudder at that last sentence from Abbott’s report on his Afghanistan trip?
Maybe it was just something about embedding me that was the difficulty.
I can’t really imagine him ‘embedded’ anywhere with anyone comfortably. Those soldiers watching him in his bomb disposal suit clearly were not finding it easy in the sense that he was using the word. http://t.co/mhnhtDZJ
Other connotations of that word somehow don’t work with Abbott.
by PatriciaWA on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:39 pm
If you look into the HSU vote you will find approx. 1500 votes supported the no confidence vote against Ms Jackson and approx 500 supported Ms Jackson.
How sad when democracy rears its ugly head.
Ms Jackson did what she did for pure personal reasons in a long running internal fight.
She got what she deserved.
by Doyley on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:39 pm
Is that what she was doing?
I thought it was some sort of inter-family feud worthy of a bunch of hillbillies.
by smithe on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:39 pm
Finns,
Official PB biffos are scheduled for every four years. The last one was Hilary – Barack.
by This little black duck on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:40 pm
by victoria on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:40 pm
Wow, I wish I had been around for that.
Who was in the Obama camp and who was in the Hillary camp out of interest?????
by Mod Lib on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:41 pm
GG
Here’s just one small report.
For those who enter into a religious marriage and have enough in common to stick with it – I wish them happiness.
But it is not universal.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features40Sep+2010
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:42 pm
yeah Ducky, that’s where the Amigos gave the 300 Spartans a good thrashing
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:43 pm
mod
moi and dio supported obi
finns gg ron et al supported hilbill
by gusface on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:44 pm
http://images.smh.com.au/2011/11/15/2773722/1_729-abbott-bomb-420×0.jpg
This must be Tony walking into the Lib party room meeting. The guy on the ground is Pyne, yes Lord Tone of the Poll.
by ruawake on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:44 pm
Ha ha ha Mod, you were still in your nappy then.
There was the 3 Amigos – Your truly, GG, Ron and Vera.
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:44 pm
You must be wiser than I had imagined.
Don’t tell me Dio was rIGHt?
Of course, Finns, GG and ron getting it wrong makes perfect sense…
Hehe, no offence guys…
by Mod Lib on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:46 pm
lizzie,
Your mission is to prove the veracity of your assertion:
“Marriage as it was, for life, in a religious sense, has pretty well disappeared”.
Fail, so far.
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:46 pm
I want a divorce but my OH said we are too happily marriage. Have i been conned?
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:46 pm
You could go to the courts and cite “irreconcilable differences” hehe
by Mod Lib on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:47 pm
finns
it was
DE FORKS
u may need ur hearing tested
by gusface on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:48 pm
Fully agree with that well-reasoned argument, BK.
I’d add just a couple of minor ones. The preferential system strikes me as a better one than “run-offs”, which is the only refinement to First-past-the-post to ensure 50%+ support. It saves the expense and the inconvenience of a second election.
The system has allowed the evolvement of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), which is responsible for the rolls, the boundaries, the counting and the integrity of the process. It is answerable to parliament but relatively independent of the government. State and local government influences do not occur.
The system would not allow such a blatant abuse as occurred in Florida in the US Presidential elections in 2000 to occur here.
Our voters are very apathetic but overall seem to respect the system.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:48 pm
GG
I refuse to tell you of my own experiences. The stats bear me out.
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:50 pm
GG, they told me Marriage is a 3 rings circus – first engagement ring, second wedding ring and third suffering. But i do like the circus bit.
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:51 pm
ruawake
No Rua this is the real story.Tony recently visited the land of his birth.Inspired by this visit he entered the World Extreme Hokey Cokey Championship. The guy on the ground is a judge marking Tony Abbott’s ” You put your [right leg] out} ” move.
[You put your [right leg] in,
You put your [right leg] out;
You put your [right leg] in,
And you shake it all about.
You do the hokey pokey,
And you turn yourself around.
That’s what it’s all about!]
by poroti on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:52 pm
Gussie, are you looking for a biffo?
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:52 pm
I have the Centrelink official stamp of “Separated = Co-Habiting”. Marriage without the financial penalties.
Now this is another can of worms, should there be a married rate for the pension?
by ruawake on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:54 pm
Hey Albo – what a chicken. Go for it, man – lip gloss will give a shine to each cheek!
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:55 pm
From the look on the face of the soldier on the ground he seems to be saying “WTF is that?!!!”
by Scarpat on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:56 pm
leone – historically you are pretty well spot on the money when it comes to the reasons for registration of marriage. Historically speaking it’s a relatively new institution except for the aristocracy.
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:57 pm
It was this:
Hey I have a prety random and certainly off topic question but what si the best way to educate yourself about economics? I have a vague understanding of it and something of an understanding of the history I can tell you somehting about well known economists like Smith, Keynes, Michal Kalecki, Galbraith, the neoliberal economists, and some of the modern developmentalist ones like Ha-Joon Chang and Robert Wade but I don’t really understand the big picture I suppose and a lot of the actual economic terms!
SO how can I go about this? I intend to do so once I finish exams. Cheers!
Hmm that could be useful I agree with him sometimes (though not always)! Thanks! Any other suggestions? I have read snippets of Satyajit Das’ new book Extreme Money which I would recommend to anyone interested but it’s not really an overview of economics. I suppose I understand the public policy aspect of economics, not so much the economics itself more interested in something to do with that.
by Vogon Poet on Nov 15, 2011 at 7:58 pm
Actually I think that Gittins book would be good for an overview!
by Vogon Poet on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:00 pm
VP,
Interesting that you should ask that. Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb have been asking the same question…
by Scarpat on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:00 pm
The Finnigans
Your Russian cuzzy Yegor Дельфин seems to be looking after the biffo creation department. !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPxUZlQ0cGg
by poroti on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:02 pm
Wayne Swan on the other hand doesnt even have the level of insight to ask…
Boom boom!
by Mod Lib on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:02 pm
Hahaha I don’t think they are too interested in educating themselves in the subject actually :p
by Vogon Poet on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:03 pm
Finns – loved the piccies. Note JG is the leader – the blokes are following. Eat your heart out, Germaine Greer. Note Abbott is looking at the camera to make sure his piccie is being taken.
BTW – I’ve been trying to trade in my OH for yonks but no one will do a deal so I’m grinning and bearing it (and loving it)
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:03 pm
poroti, which is which?
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:06 pm
Since when does the World’s Greatest Treasurer need to ask such a question…
by Scarpat on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:06 pm
More problems for NI – from the Guardian.
Leveson inquiry uncovers 28 NI staff linked to phone hacking
Private eye Glenn Mulcaire’s notes point to evidence of systematic hacking at Murdoch company, inquiry hears
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/nov/14/phone-hacking-news-international-staff-named
by adam abdool on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:06 pm
The Finnigans
Yegor Дельфин is the suave intelligent one in the pool seen in the first 5 seconds.
by poroti on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:09 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Is Tony Abbott the Vladimir Putin of Australian politics where he needs to prove that he is a “macho he man” every day? #auspol
15 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:09 pm
Can anyone recommend anything?
by Vogon Poet on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:10 pm
I was in the Obama camp – just thought it was time for the US to grow up and elect an African American. Pity that he misunderstood that you can never deal reasonably with a bunch of ratbag Republicans.
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:11 pm
The Finnigans
Rootin Tootin Shootin Putin got the top gig and is about to get it again.A veeeery important difference.
by poroti on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:12 pm