Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
When it comes to memories and same sex marriage, which one promises to “love cherish, and to obey”. Do they draw straws?
The original wedding vows, as printed in The Book of Common Prayer, are:
Groom: I,____, take thee,_____, to my lawful wedded Wife, to have and to hold from this day forward, for better for worse, for richer for poorer, in sickness and in health, to love and to cherish, till death us do part, according to God’s holy ordinance; and thereto I plight thee my troth.
Bride: I,_____, take thee,_____, to my lawful wedded Husband, to have and to hold from this day forward, for better for worse, for richer for poorer, in sickness and in health, to love, cherish, and to obey, till death us do part, according to God’s holy ordinance; and thereto I give thee my troth.
by fredn on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:54 pm
confessions
I think it’s the old copper wire and the old junction boxes. Once that was fixed in our area, broadband has been reliable.
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:55 pm
poroti – it’s hard to believe that ‘mixed’ marriages were so frowned upon and ‘living in sin’ was a real drama. Thank goodness that rubbish has almost gone.
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:55 pm
At least you’re getting reception! It seems lately on Optus everywhere is a black spot.
by ltep on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:58 pm
lizzie:
Thanks. Have no idea what the wires are like here, although until recently my phone line was running along the road, and the transformer thing had been gaffer taped to a twig and shoved in the dirt. Every time they graded the road the shire bloke would whinge about having to work around ‘the stick in the ground’.
Bloody Telstra.
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:58 pm
Diogs,
Who’s Next.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=oRLON3ddZIw
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:58 pm
BH
Ah 1958. What happened that year ? http://www.historycentral.com/20th/1958.html
While reading that you can listen to a big hit that year Paul Anka’s “You are My Destiny”.
The words sound like they turned out to be true for you. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2kCKJdUu18
by poroti on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:59 pm
confessions
You draw a beautiful picture
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 8:59 pm
ltep:
Where I live there are two Optus towers as opposed to Telstra with 1, but I tried Optus internet for a while and they were worse than Telstra!
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:00 pm
This is a man who is trying to convince us he is not the class clown and he does this.
That photo could be used by Labor on Election day to say all that needs to be said, no words are needed.
by fredn on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:00 pm
lizzie:
Recent heavy rain wiped out my phone line, and the phone lines in the three houses further up the street because the transformer wasn’t secured underground. The transformer was found by the Telstra techie washed down our street and into a neighbouring paddock where a feral bull resided.
Suffice to say, the Telstra techie decided to just issue a new transformer.
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:02 pm
BH
Posted Tuesday, November 15, 2011 at 8:55 pm | Permalink
poroti – it’s hard to believe that ‘mixed’ marriages were so frowned upon]
Are we going back to when “mixed’ was a protestant marrying a catholic.
by fredn on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:03 pm
Paul Murray on Sky: ‘the alternative Prime Minister decides to play dress-ups when he goes to Afghanistan. It’s all a little bit silly’.
The Turning (of the media).
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:03 pm
The Finnigans
I had always assumed you were in a cetacian cephalopod mixed marriage.
by poroti on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:03 pm
mixed being white and non white?
by gusface on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:05 pm
confessions
Shouldn’t laugh, but can’t help it.
Techies are just human, after all.
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:05 pm
fredn
Are we going back to when “mixed’ was a protestant marrying a catholic.]
Those be the ones. All the “issues”, will she/he convert and what about the children ?
by poroti on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:05 pm
You, my friend, are a huge fibber. Every one knows you’re a snouty nosed dolphin!
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:05 pm
The berets thing is yet another example of Mr Abbott just going along with whatever the crowd wants to hear. All good and well when you’re in Opposition and don’t need/want to have any coherent policy.
by ltep on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:06 pm
BH, i am really mixed
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:07 pm
lizzie:
I wasn’t laughing. Telstra slugged me $200+ for a new transformer even though it wasn’t my fault the original one hadn’t been buried underground, and even though I’d reported the issue many times in the past.
I think I’ll be contacting the Ombudsman about this one.
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:08 pm
Ok, i confess, my wedding photo:
http://www.cute-wallpaper.com/backgrounds/fairy/Dolphin_and_cute_girl.jpg
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:09 pm
confessions
Oh, that’s bad. I’m sorry I laughed. It was the bull in the paddock…
It’s tough living in a road with few customers. We get the same sort of treatment when the power goes off. Privatisation means they attend to the largest numbers first, to keep their averages up.
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:11 pm
ltep:
The imagery of Abbott dressing up in that suit reflects badly on him. As does his own speech lamenting his inability to
be embeddedplay at war games with Australian troops.Is he an alternative PM, or just a bloke on a boy’s own adventure?
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:13 pm
Finns
She is not wearing a ring you cheapskate
by shellbell on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:13 pm
fredn – yes. Mixed race marriages were virtually unknown in little ole Adelaide in those days but mixed religions had a hard time of it. It started to change in the mid-late 60s – blessed thanks to the hippies, I say. They had more courage than we slightly younger lot.
poroti – thanks for the history and the song. Lovely memories. Sputnik went up 6 months before we were married and we thought it was going to be the end of the world. It’s still amazing to think how frightened of the USSR we all were in those days.
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:14 pm
Finns
You are incorrigible. That photo has several layers of meaning, and the dolphin and the girl both have an extremely smug expression!
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:14 pm
Shell, with a wife like that, who looks at the ring
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:15 pm
lizzie
Funnily enough, the first reading last Sunday was indeed from Proverbs 31
The version read was wtte “The perfect wife – who can find one”
by Laocoon on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:15 pm
lizzie:
Don’t apologise. It was funny at the time, esp as the Telstra guy was a burly bloke who kept inspecting himself in the windows of his vehicle and hitching up his crotch. I almost wished he’d gone to fetch the thing and risked the irate bull!
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:16 pm
Lizzie, with a wife that, am i allowed to say that i am laughing all the way to the bedroom?
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:17 pm
Laocoon
Every working woman needs a wife.
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:17 pm
I used to tell my kids the same sex marriage thing is just a drop in the ocean, within there lifetime there will be a debate on what relationships are allowed between carbon based humans and stainless steal people.
We are rapidly understanding how we think, and emotions is a big part of the game, rational thought only gets you so far. We are rapidly developing the technology to run the algorithms.
Stainless steal people will have a lot of pluses, think of space travel to begin with. We will probable move out to the planets with such creations. Carbon base people die too easily.
Remembering emotion is part of the game, What happens when a carbon based form and a stainless steal form takes a fancy to each other.
In my view if same sex marriage is allowed (which I think should be), than marriage between carbon and stainless steal people should be allowed as all the reproductive arguments a null.
And while I’m being philosophical, when we develop stainless steal people, is it evolution (random events that led to a species that jumps the chemical barrier), or do we becomes gods.
by fredn on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:18 pm
BH
I had to wait until the following year to be born .All the best and lots of smiley emoticons in your direction.
by poroti on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:19 pm
Finns
Enjoy it while you can, my dear. (winking smilie)
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:19 pm
A Mary Jo clone?
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:19 pm
confessions – he was trying to impress you!
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:22 pm
Went through one of those, had to give my a Grandmother a serious lecture when she refused to come to my sisters wedding. I was only 20 at the time.
by fredn on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:23 pm
BH
That’s what I was thinking.
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:24 pm
I like to think we will do a better job.
by fredn on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:25 pm
Now you’re talking, lizzie. Never a truer word spoken.
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:26 pm
BH:
He failed I’m afraid!
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:27 pm
BH
Ah, I have it. Perhaps we should aim for triangular marriages for the 21C.
Oh, forgot, some cultures already have them. !
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:29 pm
Well Finns, GG did his bit, but only William so far has come in.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:31 pm
fredn – it was tough for the oldies to accept at the time. My grandmother also had a problem with mixed religion marriages. She was wonderful except when it came to Catholic/Proddy marriages. It was anathema to her until a beloved great grandchild talked her around so all my poor cousins who had suffered her wrath were cheesed off again.
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:35 pm
GD, i tried to pick a biffo with Gus but as usual he chickened out.
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:37 pm
by victoria on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:39 pm
Regarding “mixed marriages ” back in the late 70′s when I was a young lad of 23 I fell madly in love with a lovely Fijian girl by the name of Louise.
It was made clear to me by my Mum and Dad that even though they really liked her they didn’t think it would work “long term “.
Louise copped the same from her family as well. Anyway pressure built and things did not work out.
Yeras later, I was talking to Mum and out of the blue she bought up the subject. She was heart broken about the “stupid pressure” ( her words ) she and Dad put on me and had lived with it for years.
I suppose what I am trying to say is even in the 70′s “mixed marriage” acceptance was still a complex issue for some and was not confined to one racial or socio economic group. Perhaps same sex marriage raises the same issues today for many and people opposed to same sex marriage should not be grouped together as a backward thinking segment of society. They just have their own views and it is not a matter of right or wrong.
I support legal recognition of same sex unions. Call it marriage or whatever I do not care. But I do not think we should assume those opposed to it are some ignorant backward blight on society. Some may be blined by ignorance but others may just have a different point of view and/or do not see it as a major issue for them.
By the way, my dear old Mum believes everyone should be allowed to marry. Same sex, “mixed ” etc. AS long as people are happy she is happy. People can change over time.
by Doyley on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:39 pm
by victoria on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:40 pm
Poor bloke! The joys of living rural. When we get heavy rain our landline goes out altogether so we bought Telstra NextG mobiles and they often cut out in the middle of conversations.
Definitely see about getting the $200 back. It’s wasn’t your fault.
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:42 pm