Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Vogon Poet
There was a book by J K Galbraith I found in the local library which I found very helpful – something like ‘A History of Economic Thought’. Very readable, one of those books I’d buy if I could find it.
by zoomster on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:42 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
The Singapore Govt has just announced 2.5% investment return for 2012 for its citizens Super (CPF). Guided Democracy at work.
2 minutes ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:43 pm
The Finnigans 1520
LOTO Abbott – http://t.co/mhnhtDZJ …
Wow, that Abbott stunt image took me back to the Urban Spaceman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbLDI5lNdRQ
Still love the punchline of that song
by Gorgeous Dunny on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:44 pm
Some love and acknowledgement for Joe Hockey – finally in his own magazine!
http://tinyurl.com/7uhvlf7
by george on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:46 pm
Hello all, long time reader since 2007 but due to laziness i do not post but visit on a daily basis, however tonight i did want to break with my self imposed tradition and complement Gweneth on post number 1627 regarding the Education Funding Submissions. I absolutely agree and this sums up my feelings regarding this class funding inequality that is ingrained within the system. Thanks again and now back to my usual lazy self.
by Ken07 on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:46 pm
BH:
I can’t imagine living in the city again. Things here move slower, and it takes longer to get stuff done, but in the end I wouldn’t trade it for all the stuff in the city.
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:48 pm
zoomster
I am a sciency guy and think that economics = The dismal science. BUT J.K.Galbraith has been a hero of mine since high school.Oh that there were more like him. All hail JK.
by poroti on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:48 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
I am running a caption competion with this photo of Abbott – http://t.co/mhnhtDZJ … First prize a swim with me but no touching please #auspol
33 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:50 pm
george:
I love it.
LOL.
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:52 pm
Gorgeous Dunny
I’ll raise you a “Baked Beans” by Mother Goose from “sunny” downtown Dunedin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqjpxEYWZk0
by poroti on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:53 pm
Doyley – it is often hard for some to go against something that has been accepted for a long time. I well remember the rumpus about ‘gays’ in SA when I was young and my Aunt telling her sisters about 2 very famous blokes staying at Adelaide’s top Hotel where she was House Mistress. They would be openly gay now but were ‘artistic’ in those days.
Donny Dunstan changed that and I really admired him for it. I’m with your Mum – whatever makes people happy is OK if it’s not hurting someone else. However some of my friends do not see it that way. They are good people but will never accept same sex marriage. One of the reasons may be that they have had little contact on a personal level.
I think the Greens will put up a bill and then the House will vote on it. I can’t see it getting through the House. This morning, at the PM’s presser, one of the journos mentioned her promise, in 2010, that she would not bring a bill to the House in this term of Parliament. The PM said she is sticking to that. Just imagine what the Oppn would do with that if she did. It doesn’t mean that the Greens or an independent can’t put a bill up tho.
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:55 pm
Finns
Is that arse for sale?
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:55 pm
zoomster @ 1700
There are several possibilities here:
http://used.addall.com/SuperRare/submitRare.cgi?author=J.+K.+Galbraith&title=&keyword=History+Economic&isbn=&order=PRICE&ordering=ASC&binding=Any+Binding&min=&max=&exclude=&match=Y&dispCurr=USD&timeout=20&store=ABAA&store=Alibris&store=Abebooks&store=AbebooksAU&store=AbebooksDE&store=AbebooksFR&store=AbebooksUK&store=Amazon&store=AmazonCA&store=AmazonUK&store=AmazonDE&store=AmazonFR&store=Antiqbook&store=Biblio&store=BiblioUK&store=Bibliophile&store=Bibliopoly&store=Booksandcollectibles&store=ILAB&store=Half&store=LivreRareBook&store=Powells&store=Wbm&store=ZVAB
Let me know how you go with it.
by bemused on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:56 pm
by Dee on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:56 pm
Finns
“They suspect I am wearing red budgie smugglers…. and they’re right”
BTW, I want to swim with your girl companion.
by shellbell on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:57 pm
This afternoon, someone posted that dressing Abbott up as a “bomb disposal expert” was in bad taste. I agree 100%.
His stunts have now gone OT.
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 9:59 pm
Sorry that should have been OTT.
by lizzie on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:00 pm
confessions – I wouldn’t trade it either. I love Sydney but couldn’t live there again.
George – Joe looks happy. Is he in line for bigger things?!
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:00 pm
zoomster,
Galbraith: A History of Economics
http://booko.com.au/products/9780140153958
by This little black duck on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:01 pm
Well, if you consider “upsizing” as bigger things, yes BH
by george on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:02 pm
BH,
Thanks for your reply.
It got to the core of what I was trying to say.
Just because people do not agree with same sex marriage does not automatically mean they are “bad” people. It is a complex issue, not black and white as many try to make out. People have different views, different experiences and for many change needs to be gradual.
As you say, I think the PM is well aware of where Abbott may have taken this issue if she had approached the issue differently.
Perhaps one step at a time is the way to go instead of the main issue being lost in “Abbott noise”.
by Doyley on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:05 pm
Good one, george. Hope he gets to see it.
by joe2 on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:05 pm
To the tune of the Minder theme: “Joe can be so good for you!”
by This little black duck on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:07 pm
BH
Well I cannot see Tony saying…….
“Yond Hockey has a lean and hungry look,He thinks too much; such men are dangerous.”
by poroti on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:07 pm
I think most of us have seen them as OTT for a long time. The difference is now even media types are seeing them in that light. Which is yet another bad sign for Tony.
by rishane on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:08 pm
ken07
Agreed. Gweneth sums up the education funding issue perfectly.
by victoria on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:12 pm
by Dee on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:14 pm
Ken07 Thanks for that. Keep posting. I can only do it it intermittently but I do read daily to keep up with the latest news – big and small! A rich canvas of the great and the mundane that makes PB a living tapestry of life and infinitely interesting!
by Gweneth on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:15 pm
Oh did a bomb disposale course over many days I. The army reserve
Not impressed,
by my say on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:15 pm
Dee
Do you have any idea what it might be about?
by victoria on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:17 pm
Do you know who she is talking about Dee?
by shellbell on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:17 pm
former NSW minister Ian Macdonald is up before ICAC. This from last year:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/expenses-errors-macdonald-quits-nsw-parliament-20100607-xq5m.html
by sprocket_ on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:18 pm
Noted journal of repute, the Daily Telegraph?
by rishane on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:19 pm
Ian MacDonald.
I posted a tweet about it earlier.
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:20 pm
That’s Ian MacDonald, former ALP upper house member, not fed Lib of the same name.
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:20 pm
1585 Vogon Poet
Galbraith was despised by most economists, not for his reliability, but for writing in entertaining, readable English. It is a cardinal rule of Economics scholars that you must write incomprehensible stuff. Good value in almost anything of his. Keynes also had a similar fate until he published his General Theory (1936), which was thought to have the right degree of incomprehensibility.
Joking aside, Paul Krugman makes more sense than most. Within Australia The Age had several good ones in addition to Gittins. Ken Davidson, an unreconstructed Keynesian, and Tim Colebatch are worth reading.
From the point of view of Political Economy, (once a specialist area of politics and the economy), Schedvin’s “Australia and the Great Depression” and LF Crisp’s “Ben Chifley” are essential reading.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:20 pm
Doyley – Definitely. It was bad enough watching Brandis this morning explaining Lib policy and criticising the Government for making it a conscience vote. Craig Emmerson had a good time with that.
poroti – I have a feeling that Joe barely deigns to speak to Abbott nowdays.
Orf to bed for this old duck. Night all
by BH on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:22 pm
Isnt kate McClymont journo that reported the HSU matter with Wlliamson and Craig Thomson?
by victoria on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:23 pm
or Fess:
That is “Sir Lunchalot” Ian MacDonald not “Get Up is Hitler Youth” Ian MacDonald
by shellbell on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:23 pm
BH
Probably. She is the SMH’s legal sniffer and has been for ages.
by shellbell on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:24 pm
Sorry – wrong attribution. I meant Victoria
by shellbell on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:25 pm
BH
Quack ! Sweet dreams.
by poroti on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:26 pm
Dee who would of took the link down,
by my say on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:26 pm
Night. Bh
by my say on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:27 pm
Night BH
by victoria on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:29 pm
http://i1176.photobucket.com/albums/x325/MadDog1945/AbbottaBuzzBomb.jpg
by Mad Dog on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:31 pm
GD @ 1735
Add to those:
“Things Worth Fighting For” A.W. Stargardt (a collection of Chifley’s speeches) I really wish it would be reprinted.
by bemused on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:31 pm
shellbell:
Him too.
by confessions on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:33 pm
Victoria. McClymont has been tweeting about HSU today:
@Kate_McClymontKate McClymont
Dont u love the HSU? Union has no confidence in whistleblower Kathy Jackson but treats Michael Williamson like a pop star.
5 hours agovia web
replies ↓
jake_wishartjakewishart
@@Kate_McClymont Jackson was not a whistleblower.
5 hours ago
Kate_McClymontKate McClymont
@
@jake_wishart Pray tell, what was she?
3 hours ago
by shellbell on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:34 pm
Dee. I just saw it. It appeared from nowhere the picture of abbott, the site says. 401 or so thing but then I noticed. Try again. Wait a bit
by my say on Nov 15, 2011 at 10:35 pm