Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Good morning, Bludgers.
Oooh, BH; you old cynic you! And Obama arrives in the middle of it! And NewsLtd’s in the red (Don’t mention the Phone Hacking!)
Nemesis, I like to think. My fave divinity since Prof Cooper set Agamemnon for AncHist 1 1960′s drama study: Relentless and implacable Justice; the spirit of divine retribution against those who succumb to hubris; to all, the giver of what is due, especially those who think they have outdone the gods.
by OzPol Tragic on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:24 am
It’s good to see Julia ticking off all the things KR wasn’t able to do – first the Carbon legislation, now Obama’s visit, next mining tax and so it goes on…..
by lyne lady on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:25 am
So we will get sound and fury from the left, but it’s a done deal according to Coorey
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/labor-splits-over-decision-on-uranium-20111115-1nhab.html#ixzz1dob9SxUh
by madcyril on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:25 am
I heard that inthe car just now.
So what is Bishop going to do when she leaves the meeting? “Verbal” the President of the United States? Use him as an “authority” to scrap the Carbon Tax?
Does she not realize they have a different political setup over there and that the Federal government can’t just pass laws like ours can (and make them stick, that is)?
This is so embarrassing. The Libs think they can involve visiting foreign heads of state in our local political concerns, and try to at every opportunity. First Abbpott with the Queen, and now Bishop with the President ferchrissake!
I am really cringeing at what Abbott might say to Obama today in his speech. Will he mention our “robust” (how I hate that overused word) political system? Will he refer to the Carbon Tax? Or how he sympathizes with Obama because our Prime Minister is behind in the polls too? The mind boggles at what this fume-affected political train wreck might do to grab the limelight away from Gillard.
And God forbid Bob Brown pipes up again.
It’s all so parochial.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:27 am
Does anyone know what time that speech is on today, incidentally?
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:28 am
BB Posted George’s latest
Some love and acknowledgement for Joe Hockey – finally in his own magazine!
http://tinyurl.com/7uhvlf7
Really excellent George. I loved the “10 Rookie Tips” and the “IMF: Don’t get mad. Get stupid!”… as someone who has Photoshopped many a head onto unwilling bodies, I have to say you excel at it.
Keep them coming!
And so say all of us ..us..us
Bravo, George!
by OzPol Tragic on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:28 am
Laura Tingle, freed from the paywall.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/labor_challenges_business_on_ir_KQLP6RhG1vgp3mZKfoDwNK
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:29 am
I’d like to see Abbott rock up to Obama’s address to parliament in the bomb disposal suit he wore yesterday.
by madcyril on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:32 am
Unfortunately I won’t be able to watch it live.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:33 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
@
@StGusface Gussie, Fran on RN was trying her best for India Uranium as Gillard Vs Rudd issue. To her credit La Grattan shot her down #auspol
33 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:34 am
Haven’t checked, but I think Obama’s address to Parliament is tomorrow morning
by madcyril on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:36 am
That is food for thought GG…..
by Peter of Marino on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:36 am
While many here rightly express concern about how the news is portrayed in our media, spare a thought for the news that doesn’t even make teh news. Inn that regard the recent forceable eviction of “Occupy” groups from various sites in the USA is concernind.
You would hardly know it has happened in Australian TV and press, despite several events that were filmed and quite graphic in nature. The US Occupy groups are quite articulate and well educated – this is not Resistance – yet they were dealt with by police with what seemed to me quite excessive force, including batons, beatings etc.
For some coverage including film, see:
http://crookedtimber.org/2011/11/14/occupy-berkeley/
and
http://zunguzungu.wordpress.com/2011/11/11/the-grass-is-closed-what-i-have-learned-about-power-from-the-police-chancellor-birgeneau-and-occupy-cal/
The Occupy Berkely group was forcibly evicted by the University chancellor’s orders. This was then justified by language that was straight out of George Orwell. Protestors simply linking arms (no blows thrown) were described as “violent”. By that definition Gandhi was violent!
So, given the juicy film available, why don’t Australian media even carry this story?
by Socrates on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:37 am
Bishop can try and button hole Obama re Carbon legislation. However, his answer is likely to be along the lines of Australia having a more co operative Legislature.
Also, California, (8th largest economy in the world) has just announced a cap and trade sytem for emission abatement to commence on January 1, next year. This system is similar to ours. So, there is movement in the US.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/business/energy-environment/california-adopts-cap-and-trade-system-to-limit-emissions.html
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:40 am
Socrates:
The forced eviction of the OWS mob is one of 3 top stories at ABC online.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-15/police-clear-occupy-wall-street/3673220
And is the top ‘World’ story at SMH.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/occupy-wall-street-protesters-evicted-20111116-1nhse.html
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:41 am
Thanks for the links Socrates. The eviction got a fair run on ABC Newsradio this am.
by shellbell on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:41 am
madcyril
Correct. He is due to address Parliament tomorrow morning
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:42 am
10.15
Senator Heffernan is currently intimidating a witness in a committee.
by triton on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:42 am
Suggest Sophie’s edition should highlight her sterlng work amongst the bewildered elderly
by zoomster on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:43 am
zoomster
noted. Glad you guys get a chuckle
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:45 am
Thanks vic and triton
by madcyril on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:46 am
The government can’t pass laws here either. The Parliament does.
by ltep on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:46 am
The Icelandic Model – won’t happen here, I’m sorry to say.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/15/lessons-from-iceland-people-power
by sohar on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:46 am
A propos of nothing…
Just listening to the Solti Messiah…
It’s almost enough to make you go back to religion.
So lovely.
If only those who murdered and judged others in his name reflected on those words and the joy in Handel’s music that they are set to, the world would definitely be a better place.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:48 am
Bronwyn’s Top Ten uses for kerosine around the home ?
by Peter of Marino on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:51 am
Brendon O’Connor giving a speech on information policy, and changes to FOI laws. He is a good speaker.
Compare and contrast with fellow Victorian Tony Smith, who also entered Parliament in 2001. Can’t see Smith ever being a Minister in government. Another sterling graduate from the office of Peter Costello.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:54 am
And Sophie’s tips on public
speakinghectoring, and how not to lose one’s cool in challenging circumstances.by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:56 am
Morning all, here’s this morning’s Crikey media wrap on the POTUS visit, links to all the main articles. Worth a browse.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/11/16/obama-arrives-to-an-eager-aussie-pm/
by Leroy on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:00 am
From listening to O’Connor’s speech, learned about this govt website.
http://data.gov.au/data/
It holds 700+ datasets from govts around the country on a whole range of topics.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:04 am
Leroy
Appreciate the links. Notice Neil Mitchell reckons the PM is grovelling to Obama. He did not have this criticism of Howard and Bush. What a freakin hypocrite
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:05 am
It should also be noted that she is a leading expert on venomous snakes, particular puff adders.
by Tom Hawkins on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:05 am
BB @ 2004
The US President jets in at about 3.30pm, whence he is taken to Parliament House to ‘freshen up,’ then for a meeting with PM Gillard in her office with the usual photo ops, then into a private meeting with the PM until a scheduled joint Press Conference at about 5.30pm. After that it’s a State Dinner from 7.30pm tonight in Parliament House.
Tomorrow he addresses a Joint Sitting of both Houses before jetting out to Darwin for a few hours, then on to Indonesia.
by The Big Ship on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:11 am
According to the SMH webpage, Obama’s circus hits the town. No wonder Keating had such contempt for SMH. Its actually getting worse with them.
by adam abdool on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:12 am
Obama’s almost here? I can hear the leftist snark on Twitter already.
by Carey Moore on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:15 am
adam abdool
From my observations, the DT and The SMH are both contemptable. The Herald Sun and The Age Strangely enough are both superior
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:15 am
CM
It seems that cynacism with political leadership has infected the globe. Australia is no different
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:17 am
Morning all,
Bolt the Dolt has proven once again that he is a low-life dog.
This is his take on Peter Roebucks tragic death:
Pretty brave to attack someone that cannot fight back, eh Andrew ?
Andrew Bolt is a lilly-livered cur
by Mick Collins on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:18 am
Cynicism
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:20 am
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-to-investigate-claim-that-exminister-took-medich-bribe-20111115-1nhen.html
Nothing Macdonald would do would surprise me.
by MTBW on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:27 am
BK you have a certain je ne sais quoi with your “dawn patrol”. The “morning tea patrol” just seems indolently louche in comparison
A few comments on overnight. Ancient Rome certainly had debt (wherever there are laws against usuary, you can be sure there is a thriving debt economy). Here is a droll little piece, pointing to the relationship of debt, war in the middle east and social unrest:
http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.blogspot.com/2011/06/debt-deflationary-crisis-in-late-roman.html
(BTW, credit comes more from the Latin word for belief, honesty rather than nuance of fides, faith. E.g. Tony Abbott is incredible; the Australian media are credulous.)
In terms of mis-pricing of assets, this happens (in retrospect anyway) all the time – consider those damned tulips. My own view is that this financial crisis has been exacerbated by financial insitutions mis-pricing internally – in particular mis-pricing the risk/return on their balance sheets. This is relatively new because of in my view the single biggest “event” contributor – the dismantling of Glass-Steagall in the US in 1999. This dismantling meant that investment banks and commercial banks no longer had to be separated – the only thing worse than giving commercial bankers access to investment banking bag of tricks is giving investment bankers access to commercial banks’ balance sheets. Glass Steagall had been introduced in the 1930s because of…well, I am sure you can guess. Why must we learn, re-learn, and re-learn…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass-Steagall_Act
by Laocoon on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:27 am
Obama not meeting Tony, or has the Opposition Leader left on the space mission he’s been dressed up for days for?
by sohar on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:28 am
re the sophie mag
for bronny
by gusface on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:28 am
“almost”. Listening to Messiah, Requiem (Gregorian, Mozart, Verdi, Jensen), Bach’s cantatas; walking, enraptured, through great Gothic cathedrals – written/ built to the greater glory of god? Not to me. To me they’re a mirror of what our species can achieve, whether to the glory of some god, or simply to express the human creators’ personal best: monuments to Homo sapiens sapiens. Thus I prefer Alexander Pope’s
Alexander Pope: Essay on Man (1733-4)
by OzPol Tragic on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:29 am
Can someone tell me what to do with “an error with script has occured on this page” I am getting it (not here) but on the newspaper sites over and over again. Any advice thankfully received.
by MTBW on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:31 am
Confessions 2014, Shellbell 2015
Appreciate your links but the protest crack-downs you referred to were in New York. The one I linked to was in Berkeley University (Oakland, California) which to my knowledge has not been covered. The point is that there has been a widespread crackdown, including on several university campuses that were not disrupting business.
by Socrates on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:37 am
Listening to Neil again Vic? The man can’t help himself when it comes to Labor and Gillard.
by Gary on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:40 am
gus
no, Sophie’s would have to be some aged care/pensioners magazine, with her in a nurse’s uniform bending solicitously over some poor old man…(perhaps with pen and paper in hand?)
by zoomster on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:42 am
If Obama gets that from Mesma he should tell he’d love to have a scheme like ours but he’s got an even crazier opposition than Australia has.
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:43 am
z,
A feature on “Slimming Down”- It’s easy. Just give Power of Attorney to me.
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:45 am
As a republican I think it important to point out the ‘law’ is made by Her Majesty’s representative in Australia. Pathetic and humiliating yes.
by WeWantPaul on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:48 am