Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
SK
Agreed. ruawake has indicated there may be a libspill on the 23rd Nov
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:40 pm
finns
u iz a bad bad man
by gusface on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Kiddo, i invoke the journalistic code, i know nothing.
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:41 pm
Good to see.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:41 pm
Our glorious Liberal Government in Victoria has just slashed firefighting aircraft numbers for the up coming fire season. Aresholes.
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:42 pm
gusface
You obviously have a face that a mother could love. (smiley)
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Finns, for your caption competition (I played with the photo, hope I’m not disqualified):
http://tinyurl.com/comyrcu
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:42 pm
GG
The polls show Ballieu govt are very popular atm. I just dont get it!!
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:43 pm
Finns – you are wicked!
Great to hear you are getting on top of things again, SK. Thought of you when the Comm Games announcement came through and a women with 2 young boys was shown on telly. You’ll be in the thick of things.
by BH on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:44 pm
GG, Burgey et al,
What do you think the guy on the ground in the Abbott bomb suit photo is doing? My first impression was that he is checking to see if Alan Jones and all the other tosspot criers of foul from the media are still well and truly embedded up his rectum.
On yesterday’s topic/brouhaha as to how one should address the Prime Minister, I seem to recall many years ago that when being questioned directly they were addressed as “Mr…” and not “Prime Minister”. I thought this over-the-top addressing them by their title firmly took hold under Howard and his desire to appear more “Presidential”/”statemanlike”/taller. Of course, I could be wrong as I blame Howard et al for everything that went wrong with the country, the world and my life in the period from about 1996 to 2007. Any views/recollections?
by Darc on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:44 pm
It’s the last night of the year the whole partyroom will be in Canberra. But I doubt he’ll be replaced this year – next year for sure.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:45 pm
victoria,
Really? Was there something significant about the23rd Nov?
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:45 pm
vic,
Punting on public safety could see it all go up in smoke.
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:45 pm
george
Classic!
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:45 pm
SK
Confessions outlines reasoning at 2160
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:47 pm
Thanks, BK @ 2149
Classic stuff that always brings a smile to my face, and it’s hard to believe that there are only 12 episodes!
Truly the ‘Don Bradman’ of situation comedies.
by The Big Ship on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:47 pm
George, u iz a bad bad man as said Gussie.
ha ha ha love that new pic of Abbott. Can i tweet that?
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:48 pm
Finns,
You are a very norty Dolphin!
BH,
Yeah, we are all pretty excited. Just waiting to hear how/if I can get involved somehow.
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:48 pm
victoria,
Makes sense. IR will be the great divider.
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:50 pm
sure :–)
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Big Ship
One of my treasured possessions is the entire Fawlty Towers collection.
I love the Major.
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:52 pm
george,
Very good.
“We’re not in Oxford St anymore, Pyney”
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:53 pm
George,
“Does my arse look big in this?”
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:55 pm
BK, just love that series. My son watched it from an early age (with me) and he was hooked. When he was 5 we were at a cafe in the city, and they’d totally stuffed his order of fish and chips. When the waitress came out to let him know he had to pick something else (as they’d run out of fish) he exclaimed to her “so duck’s off then?”
She didn’t get it.
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:56 pm
GG/SK – youse are both classic, LOL
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:56 pm
SK – friends of mine volunteered for the Sydney Olympics and really enjoyed it so put your name down.
by BH on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:57 pm
GG
Danielle Green, the Oppo spokesperson, said on local ABC radio that (to her knowledge) the decision was taken despite the advice given by the firies.
by zoomster on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:58 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Exclusive Breaking News: New Pix of Tony Abbott’s in Afghanistan http://twitpic.com/7eqndy/full #auspol (Taken by George)
32 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:58 pm
Love it!
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 1:59 pm
George,
“Can’t wait for that arsehat Riley to interview me in this.”
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:00 pm
BK, don’t forget the Pirhana brothers…
http://youtu.be/8ZkWL-XvO0U
http://youtu.be/C-FDW1shmqA
by Darc on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:02 pm
z,
Danielle would know given she is a volunteer fierie herself. With this move the Libs have introduced pre committment levels to public safety. This will not go down well imho.
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:02 pm
George
“Would I be safe being interviewed by Kerry O’Brien in this?”
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:02 pm
BH,
We are hoping the kids can get involved too. I think they’d both love the experience.
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:03 pm
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/11/16/mike-carlton-quality-journalism/
Mike Carlton’s contribution to the “Quality Journalism project” For those who came in late, it refers to each journo’s/media bod’s opinion of what the best there is out there, does not mean each contributor, if a journo, is a quality journo (look at prior contributors and you’ll see what I mean). I like this quote…
http://www.crikey.com.au/quality-in-journalism/
by Leroy on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:03 pm
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:03 pm
by sprocket_ on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:04 pm
JuliaGillard Julia Gillard
Glad you asked, @nicola_mele! Tweets signed JG are written by the PM and those signed TeamJG are by her team. TeamJG
3 minutes ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:05 pm
Darc
Thank for that. I noticed a character Harry Snapper Organs came up in it. That’s the name of an occasional PB poster. I often wondered about that name.
Now I know.
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:06 pm
http://www.watoday.com.au/national/live-barack-obama-touches-down-in-australia-20111116-1ni9j.html
for those interested, blog of the visit
by Leroy on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:07 pm
george @ 2173
Watching Fawlty Towers is one of life’s great pleasures, and something I never tire of, although I confess I still prefer the anarchy of the original Python TV shows. When I was a kid in the early 1970′s when Python first came on TV (in Sydney it was on the ABC at 9.30pm on a Tuesday night) I had to negotiate all sorts of extra chores with my parents (wash the car, mow the lawn, et al) for the privilege of getting 1/2 an hour of Python once a week, and I use to roll about on the floor laughing while my Mum and Dad sat stony faced behind me, not getting this zany new series at all.
Looking back at the original Python stuff now, some of it looks pretty clunky and amateur, but the best of it (generally about 2/3rds of each episode) is as good as it gets, and still illicits loud guffaws from me and my aging contemporaries.
As Cleese said himself on a recent TV interview, ‘The Fish Slapping Dance’ is par excellence when it comes to sheer and unadulterated silliness!
by The Big Ship on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:09 pm
Don’t laugh. They probably could if they put their mind to it.
Meanwhile the 3.5km extension from Epping (Victoria) to South Morang (along an existing formation from a previously closed line) was promised by the Labor government in 1999 (and every election since). It is now expected to be opened by the Baillieu Liberal government in 2013.
The Chinese could probably have done it in their lunch hour.
by Darn on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:10 pm
Big Ship
This is my favorite Monty Python skit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_UEmrEVMEA8
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Space K
How are u
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Poor Tony.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:12 pm
The Big Ship
I agree with him, and you :–)
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:13 pm
You should never underestimate the desperate attempts some self-styled experts in the MSM columnists will make to protect Abbott. They are tied to mast of the good ship Stuntman Tone. If he sinks so does their reputation.
The recovery mounted by the PM and Labor has been remarkable. I thought it beyond them. To some extent it is because they have done what many on here have suggested – they have just got on with the job and achieved almost all they said they would in the Year of Decision.
Some in the media have turned a little, but they were driven by the change in public opinion, they did not lead it. If the polls now hold steady or even dip a point or so the attack will be renewed.
The utter obsession with Rudd has reached stupid levels. Even Ms Grattan was bemused by Fran Kelly’s attempt to spin Grattan’s own column into yet another Rudd restoration story.
However, I suspect some in the media are misreading the public’s change of mood, seeing it as temporary or limited. I am not so sure. I don’t think people are very impressed by Abbott’s latest Afghanistan stunt – and it being hyped up by his newspaper cheerleaders reincorces that dismay.
If he embarrasses himself and the nation tomorrow then plenty of his cheerleaders will ignore it. But as at the time of the flood levy the real damage is being done in the darker recesses of the coalition. Tjhe venom between his officer and other members of the party makes Gillard and Rudd look like star-crossed lovers.
Despite all the attempts to cover that up the cracks are getting wider.
by roaldan1000 on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:14 pm
TBS
It was brilliant, but I found it hard to watch a lot of the time. I feel uncomfortable when people really embarrass themselves and Basil Fawlty did that a lot, and then dug himself deeper holes trying to cover it up.
by triton on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:15 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Spot the difference: PM Gillard http://twitpic.com/7ega4t/full – LOTO Abbott: http://twitpic.com/7eqndy/full #aubama
14 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Sk. My oh was an head judge, throws. Commonwealth games here,
Also. Judge of throws Sydney olympic coming through the ranks of little athletic
To seniors.sitting all the olympic exams
Very proud we are
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:17 pm