Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Here I mean australia of course
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:17 pm
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Who is the lady. With abbottdo u tweet these pictures
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:19 pm
BK @ 2188
Monty Python is almost becoming ‘Shakespearesque’ in providing characters that bob up regularly in conversations, and many people don’t know the origins – Superintendent Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs is but one of many.
In meetings I regulary invoke ‘sending around Doug and Dinsdale’ to put things right in some situations, as well as many other quotes from Python almost without being aware of it.
‘Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcial aquatic ceremony …’ is another one when colleagues are seeking too much power or influence.
The examples are endless if your mind is filled (as mine seems to be) with such trivia.
For those interested, here is the famed ‘Fish Slapping Dance!’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhJQp-q1Y1s
by The Big Ship on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:23 pm
My Say,
I am well, thanks. How is the little cherub and your daughter going?
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:24 pm
my say, you have to George about her
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:24 pm
BB@2089
And, now the sour conservatives are making the point that Bob Brown will not make any fuss while Obi is here because he didn’t like the younger Bush.
They have the gall to call this act as “cynical” after JWH coming home and gushing about how he and George W suffered together after 9/11 and how JWH was “shoulder to shoulder” with Bush, including his blind following of the US neocons into Iraq when most in Oz were absolute opposed to this stupid and ultimately futile invasion of that country.
Can’t win with this contrary mob.
Interesting to note that on one news outlet, that there will be no video footage taken of Abbbot in company with Obi.
Perhaps they are aware of the shameless way TA could not keep his mouth shut from domestic political issues when Her Mag. was here.
Or, they are worried he will put on some kind of flouro shirt!
To think this idiot came within a ace of being the PM.
by Tricot on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:27 pm
Tone, who’s the lady I saw you with?
That’s no lady, that’s the manager of oops business.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:28 pm
DArc
My pet annoyance amount others wax, we called the country areas. The country
We even have the country hour, county womans ass,
But howarc started calling it the bush
Then came along the ab c. Who now have a programs called bush telegraph,
My fervant hope is we return to country, the word bush is not used in tasmania
Except if u live in the city and u have some bush behind your home,
But. We always go down or up or across t the country town
I have noticed howards bush is not as popular
That and green track suits early in the morning are my pet TRIvia jwh. Annoyances
We will leave the big ones for another day
Welcome by the way
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:31 pm
Sk all most Improved, George put on 90 grams this week, his left ventrical is gradu ally closing, but they do say they would like his artery to be wider so may do the stent,again further down the track,
Have to go to Melbourne every month, fir some time the pedeatric clinic here has been marvellous george now weighs 2. 70. Kilo
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:37 pm
My Say,
That is fantastic news. Sounds like he is a little fighter. Just watch out when he is old enough to run around!
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:39 pm
Yes I bet he will be I to everything , he truly a lovely child. Never cries, talks to his hands when a wake but does try to pull out the feeding tube, we think we are see g his I dependent personality like his mum already
She was the throw s athlete he brother the race walker, so glad u got the common wealth games,
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:44 pm
my say – 2202 “Who is the lady …”
Because of all the bright colours, I tried to imagine B Bishop but then waistline-wise it’s more likely to be the other Bishop.
by gigi on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:45 pm
just using the T HUB
i luvs it lotz
by gusface on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:45 pm
laocoon, socrates and others re Sydney rail – there is plenty of good discussion of this on the forums at http://www.railpage.com.au , along with some very silly stuff, but PB fans should be well prepared for that … ! check it out.
On the topic, the CBD stations are the critical point (visit Town Hall or Wynyard at peak time , the approaches including the Bridge are not at capacity just yet …
by Marrickville Mauler on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:51 pm
So Tone used every trick in the book available to remain abstinent, while abroad, just like he did in his time as a the seminarian.
http://twitpic.com/7eqndy/full
by joe2 on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:53 pm
My Say you crack me up! It’s from Queen of the Desert:
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/arts/features/article_1632695.php/Priscilla-Queen-of-the-Desert-Cast-Appear-at-the-HMV-Theatre-Pictures
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 2:53 pm
Darn
The south Morang station was finally funded by Labor and works commenced before the last election. When Ballieu took over, he was considering cancelling the project. There was public outcry and the project continued
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:00 pm
george,
I knew I got it right!
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:02 pm
And Libs’R'Us Clarke is at the airport! Couldn’t they find anybody else, anybody!
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:05 pm
Ducky
I am listening to David Speers and Fool Gilbert on Sky
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:06 pm
Does anyone have any more info on the Ballieu decision to cut back on fire fighting aircraft? My search couldn’t find it.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:07 pm
Of course it’s Air Force One! How many civil crafts do you reckon are in the air here!
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:07 pm
lizzie,
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-16/government-denies-cutting-firefighting-resources/3674530?section=vic
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:09 pm
Yes, Ducky. Just a touch overly cautious there.
by triton on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:12 pm
lizzie
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/firefighting-budget-slashed-and-burned/story-fn7x8me2-1226196084791
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Dawkins, they’re awful gushers!
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:12 pm
tlbd
There are two planes but at the moment it is not known on which one Bazza is according to the reporter on the ABC.
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Thanks, tlbd.
I don’t trust them an inch.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Ahem….it’s a guy in drag, my say. Probably a participant in this year’s Gay and Lesbian mardi gras, kindly photoshopped into the Abbott Hurt Locker piccie for us by George.
Appropriate, given TA’s well known fear of gays.
by smithe on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Lots of men in black.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:17 pm
Memory Corner…
It was on the day that George Bush made a speech to parliament that Christopher Pearson was appointed to the SBS Board. Lindsay Tanner said at the time…
And also he said that it was outrageous that the appointment had been made on the day of Mr Bush’s visit, claiming it was “an open admission of guilt by John Howard that this appointment is totally inappropriate”.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/10/23/1066631574634.html
by joe2 on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:18 pm
Thanks, victoria. Obviously a bit controversial.
I just think that cutting fire protection services does not give the public any confidence. Just the opposite.
They may be spending billions on other stuff, but a quick presence of a water dump is far more use than “getting on the phone” to call in backup from another state which won’t arrive until the next day.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:19 pm
And not an Abbott in sight!
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:21 pm
lizzie
by zoomster on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:21 pm
That was Howard’s biggest success after the gun laws.
by Fulvio Sammut on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:21 pm
zoomster
Living where you do, I’m sure you’re ultra-sensitive to the Baillieu cost-cutting.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:22 pm
Shallow moment – the GG has great taste in clothes.
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:23 pm
Scarpat,
Where’s Puff when you need her.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:24 pm
Melissa is gosh awful.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:25 pm
tlbd,
I’m filling in…
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:25 pm
I wish Melissa would stop beating up the “warmth” between Obama and the PM. It’s getting warmer by the moment (according to melissa). Soon Gillard will be Obama’s b!tch. It’s not a good look for the Oz PM to be too close to US – Howard set a very bad example.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:28 pm
scarpat
I don’t always admire the GG’s clothes, but that clear yellow is just right.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:29 pm
Melissa slipped in “what must be going through Kevin Rudd’s mind’ wtte “It coulda/shoulda been me”.
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:30 pm
FFS
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:31 pm
George
Looks like Tony is jealous of Gillard: trying to attract Silvio Berlusconi’s eye
by Laocoon on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:31 pm
lizzie,
I suspect a very real friendship between the two. They are both easy going people so I could understand their rapport.
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:32 pm
Melissa was also very keen to stress how well rodent and shrub got on.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:32 pm
MarrickvilleMauler
THanks much…the introductory heading is a fresh welcome statement of honesty!
by Laocoon on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:33 pm
Talking about “FFS”…
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/art-and-design/picture-perfect-us43-million-photograph-of-featureless-river-hailed-by-critics-20111116-1nhyh.html
George, you’re in the wrong game.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 16, 2011 at 3:34 pm