Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Oh please God, please….
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:16 pm
Yep no politics, sticking to policy mainly.
by ruawake on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:17 pm
victoria,
Could you imagine JG versus JB in QT? It would be JG doing a Bradman every day, hitting the haughty high school girl out of the park.
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:18 pm
Julie Bishop will photocopy Tone’s policies.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:19 pm
More like Viv Richards.
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:20 pm
Hmmm… a low-flying Ms Bishop coming into land… flaps extended, tabs trimmed just so, undercarriage down, finger on the reverse thrust button…
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:20 pm
SK
Spot on! Frankly, i have no idea who would be an ideal replacement for Abbott. There is not one shining light in that party
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:20 pm
You mean like when you’re the only one in the office, and you drop your pants and sit on the photocopier….?
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:21 pm
Sk – actually, you would. He’s mostly a treasure. He didn’t have a political bone in his body until Howard became PM and now he’s as rabid as me. lol
by BH on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:21 pm
george
LOL!!
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:22 pm
JB is used to copying stuff, isn’t she? Won’t be a problem for her.
by BH on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:22 pm
good story
by jenauthor on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:23 pm
white on white or http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma4dsoviNSQ
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:23 pm
Is it actually possible to photocopy a stamp?
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:24 pm
BH,
Howard was enough to turn anybody!
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:24 pm
george,
You have been to too many office parties.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:24 pm
George, that would give you a copy of the Rabble’s policy development dept.
by ruawake on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:28 pm
Check WI v India cricket!
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:28 pm
Interesting foreign perspective on the Obama/Gillard relationship.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68445.html
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:30 pm
So, Mr Abbott is playing soldiers again, but where is Mr Rudd? Shouldn’t he be in the country when the POTUS is in town? Isn’t it rude of Mr Rudd to leave it Mr Watt to stand in the official welcoming line, even if that would have put Mr Rudd somewhat down the totem pole from important people like the Prime Minister?
BTW, the Opposition is certainly working very hard to pick up Australia’s defence seats. The defence voting BOP must count for at least three or four seats, I imagine. Perhaps William would know more about that.
Making us taxpayers fork out an extra $2 billion plus to change the indexing for defence super is a bit over the top, though. As promises go, on a per-electorate basis, that was probably the single most expensive bit of pork barrelling rolled out in the last election.
The berets are cheap by comparison. But it destructive of the LOTO to be compromising defence protocols like that.
The Coalition has not rescinded the defence super indexing promise, so it stands.
They stuffed up the costings when they first announced it and had to revise it up by a lot of money. Not to worry. Just one of those things that happens with numbers.
Apart from the specific cock up, the defence super indexing is also part of the $70 billion black hole in savings that the Coalition has yet to find.
Oh, plus the funding required to fund the reversal on the 9-12% super.
Bunyip economics – best left in the foetid ooze of a billabong.
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:31 pm
The 19 guns didn’t get a single Hornet.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:34 pm
Ducky
478 runs, they need a good bookie.
by ruawake on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:36 pm
On the other hand, the Hornets must have taken out two of the guns as it was supposed to be a 21 gun salute (on my understanding)…
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:36 pm
Shallow moment no.2 – The GG changed the colour of her outfit, the PM didn’t change the colour of her hair…
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:38 pm
Quite right: 21 for heads of state. Julia would only get 19.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:39 pm
I thought 21 guns was the number for visiting heads of state too. It is in Canada, check this out…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/21_gun_salute
I would have thought this suggests so too…
http://www.awm.gov.au/commemoration/customs/salutes.asp
by Leroy on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:44 pm
At least the Indies managed to score over 100. Had to love the Crystal Ball odds India 99% WI 1% Draw 0%.
by DavidWH on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:44 pm
How would those schoolkids feel, shaking the hand of the US President? They won’t forget that in a hurry.
by The Big Ship on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:45 pm
Indian article on Uranium
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Australia-to-revoke-ban-on-uranium-sale-to-India/articleshow/10746970.cms
More in the article
by Leroy on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:46 pm
It shoulda been Tone!
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:46 pm
Is Obama writing his autobiography?
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:47 pm
He signs the visitor’s book with his left hand, looking a bit awkward in the process – what did he write, one wonders?
by The Big Ship on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:47 pm
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Obama-due-in-Australia-to-reframe-security-ties/articleshow/10750933.cms
AFP article (in Times of India) on Obama visit
by Leroy on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:48 pm
Rudd has been in India on official business attending the IOR-ARC meeting. That finished up today so he’s probably on his way home now.
by leone on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:49 pm
And he gets a big cheer from the upper balcony of visitor’s in the Great Hall, and flashes that rock star smile!
by The Big Ship on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:49 pm
nice having school children meet the President.
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:52 pm
Thinking about Reith’s activity, looking back to this oldish article:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-deceived-reith-on-bid-for-liberal-presidency-20110626-1glt4.html#ixzz1dqQUGFaa
An alliance of Turnbull LOTO/Bishop Dep (of course)/Robb treasury/Reith on a promise??
Of course, probably last paragraph is more likely; anyone know his twitter account?
by Laocoon on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:55 pm
I think the abc coverage has been pathetic so far – long silences… just like TA – wonder what the GG said when introducing TA – this is JH’s little mate?
by Lyne Lady on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:55 pm
Paul Keating in Conversation with Robert Manne
http://www.themonthly.com.au/paul-keating-conversation-robert-manne-4238
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:57 pm
John Howard is a guest at tonights dinner for Obama. Hope Obama has a long memory.
by al palster on Nov 16, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Speers repeated what Howard said about Obama and then said that the hatchet has been buried and Howard will be at the Presidential Dinner tonight. Probably hurried home from the UK so that he could get a few days’ rest to look exPrime Ministerial for the President or maybe he had to race home to wangle an invite!
by BH on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:01 pm
Loacoon,
Way back when that article appeared, I wrote that Abbott would look back on this event as the single biggest mistake of his leadership.
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:01 pm
Is this is why he canned the Oxford Union speech??
by Laocoon on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:02 pm
“Mr. Howard, I believe that you lost your seat since the last time we met”…
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:03 pm
George @ 2156 your http://tinyurl.com/comyrcu inspired me to modify this from http://polliepomes.wordpress.com/2011/09/25/un-named-sources-in-the-coalition/
Tony Abbott’s Body Armor
Fearing some femme fatale might charm him
And media scandal somehow harm him,
Tony Abbott’s taking care to show,
Pre-emptively, the answer will be “No!”
Unnamed sources in the Coalition,
Already fear he risks his soul’s perdition.
He’s not been home for a month or so.
Why that is, no one really seems to know.
Canberra is rife with rumor!
The L.O.T.O. is in a dark, black humor.
Has his spouse told him he has to go?
Is she sick of hearing him say “No!”
Does he so badly want a new election
He’s avoiding every chance of an erection,
Forgotten that his home is not the House, and so
Even there his answer automatically is “No!”
He can’t be having an affaire!
Cameras follow him everywhere.
Every inch of film would surely show
Female advances are always met with “No!”
But does he have the time or need for sex?
He can get his kicks with a muscle flex,
So opportunities for the Manly member to show
Inevitably are responded to with “No!”
So why he needs this suit is anybody’s guess.
Maybe, so rarely in his life has he said “ Yes”
He’ll wear it facing fires in hell where he is bound to go.
‘Cos when asked if he repents his sins he’s bound to answer “NO!”
by PatriciaWA on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:03 pm
Hi SpaceK
I didnt see your comment at the time, but seems prescient: there does seem to have been a lot of unravelling since then
by Laocoon on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:03 pm
@Boerwar, 2319
I think that marginal seats with a strong Defence Force vote would be Herbert/Dawson (Townsville), McEwen (Puckapunyal), Brisbane (Enoggera), Hughes (Holsworthy), and Solomon for the Darwin bases.
Of those, only McEwen and Hughes are still held by the ALP.
by Von Kirsdarke on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:03 pm
PatriciaWA – LOL :–)
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:10 pm
Laocoon,
Reith strikes me as a take no prisoners and no lines uncrossed type. Regardless of the impact on the party, Reith will make Tony pay.
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:12 pm
Howard has become the Uncle Arthur of Oz politics.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_RFAy9naI8
by Tom Hawkins on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:18 pm