Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Eden-Monaro based on Queanbeyan has a very strong defence force presence. The decision re military pensions will have a strong bearing.
by Michael Cusack on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:21 pm
It is funny how military superannuation is called a pension.
by ruawake on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Speaking as a proud lefthander I was wondering how many lefthanders have been presidents of US, President Obama and Clinton think George Bush Junior possibly Jummy Carter?
by mari on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:27 pm
Tony Abbott of course is a famous sinistro.
by ruawake on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:31 pm
Must add this is a fake Dennis Shanahan
by mari on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:32 pm
I forgot about that, oh hell I was so proud of being a lefthander
by mari on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:34 pm
mari,
We still love you!
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:35 pm
Mari – just what DS would like to say – JG looks fantastic – glowing with good health – such a contrast to TA who looks like a little withered prune….
by Lyne Lady on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:35 pm
Look, I know I’m prejudiced (wink) but did anyone else notice that Abbott grabbed Obama’s hand and started talking, just like he did with Her Maj, and was still talking when Obama withdrew his hand and moved on.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:35 pm
Even with GWB as a molly duker?
by Tom Hawkins on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:37 pm
I’ve never seen the PM look so attractive and relaxed. So good to see her at her best.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:37 pm
Check the Abbott handshake with Obama.
Abbott pulls Obama’s hand towards him, a sign of dominanace, Obama pulls Abbotts arm out of it socket.
by ruawake on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:38 pm
Whilst Abbott cut a comic figure resulting in much laughter my thoughts are with the next poor bastard who has to put it on. I hope there is a nearby drycleaners.
by PoK on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:38 pm
ruawake
So I wasn’t imagining it with Abbott.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:40 pm
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:40 pm
Lizzie, is there a video link?
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:41 pm
George @ 2346 have tried to post a comment athttp://tinyurl.com/comyrcu and to get permission to use your picture which is the best I can think of to illustrate my post at http://polliepomes.wordpress.com/2011/11/16/tony-abbott%e2%80%99s-body-armor/
I somehow can’t give yahoo the right answers to register my comment!
by PatriciaWA on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:45 pm
Six defence seats…
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:45 pm
george
Sorry, I was watching ABC24.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:45 pm
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:46 pm
Bugger, hopefully it’s replayed
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:48 pm
PatriciaWA @2366, not sure what you mean by “permission”, but you are free to use/reuse/link/etc anything on my Flickr stream. Are you experiencing a technical problem in linking to it or posting it?
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:49 pm
The Queen drives past my work and there is 5 people and a sick looking dog standing on the side of the road waving. The President of the United States drives past to crowds that have emptied the offices.
Conclusion, drop the queen and become a new state of the United States. The peoples feet have spoken.
by rummel on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:51 pm
Which Australain Journo will ask the dumbest question in the upcoming joint presser with JG and BA?
by ruawake on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:54 pm
rua,
My money is on Michelle.
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:54 pm
Which Australian journo will ask an intelligent question?
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:55 pm
Yep sadly this is true.
by ruawake on Nov 16, 2011 at 5:58 pm
If anyone is thinking of a xmas pressie for me, I would be overjoyed to receive this in the mail :–)
http://www.streetwise.com.au/mac-accessories/displays/wacom-cintiq-24hd-interactive-pen-display.html
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:01 pm
All military superannuation used to be paid under the Defence Force Retirement and Death Benefits Scheme which gave the serving member a pension based on their rate of pay when retiring. It was changed a while ago to a different scheme and they were offered the choice of remaining in DFRDB or switching to the new one, the new one does not pay a pension only a cash payout.
The retired members want their pension brought into line with other pensions in the way it is adjusted each year, as it currently stands they are going backwards while other pensions are being increase by having their value adjudged against a different set of inflation figures.
by HaveAchat on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:01 pm
Whats with the GG changing outfits between the airport and parliament house ?. Talk about being pompous.
by rummel on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:02 pm
rummel – interesting the response you mention. A contributing factor may be Obama’s celebrity status, he and his wife seem to still have that international pop appeal that goes beyond regular politics which he gained in the 2008 campaign, probably gets a bigger response than most Presidents would have done. Bush is a special case, so many people around the world couldn’t stand him at all. Obama gets cred for not being Bush.
by Leroy on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:02 pm
VK @ MC
Thanks for the responses. I suppose the thing that Labor have going for them in Eden-Monaro is that Mike Kelly is ex-military.
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:03 pm
Unless Obi is feeling generous there’ll only be two questions from Aus journos.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:04 pm
by Space Kidette on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:05 pm
GGeGeog
e. I tgried
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:06 pm
Is the operative phrase. It is not a pension, same rate, it is super.
by ruawake on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:06 pm
OZ MSM gets two questions? No probs.
Ms Savva: ‘Mr President what do you think of Ms Gillard’s clothes?’
Mr Bolt: ‘Are you one of those white/blacks who trade on their false identity to scam the system?’
Pity it is only two. There are a lot more where those two came from.
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Did she do it in the car on the way between?
by HaveAchat on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:08 pm
Is Julia a bit emotional?
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:09 pm
Ms Gillard is emotional in making the opening statement…
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:09 pm
o dear could not see what I was writing, i was tapping. With was, trying to get the key board to work, I wanted to say, your christmas wish does not work
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:10 pm
… or she might have had some sort of wardrobe malfunction; snagged her skirt on something or got shat on by a bird.
Sometimes the least cynical answer is the correct one …
by Danny Lewis on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:10 pm
She’s OK now.
Obi is looking on with admiration.
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:12 pm
True it is super but paid out fortnightly, it is indexed to inflation but the government adjudge the rate of inflation different for the military super pension than any other pensions which is why it is becoming difficult for some that have been on it a while to survive adequately.
by HaveAchat on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:13 pm
The dog was waving too? How sick was it?
by kakuru on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:14 pm
Easy, Matthew Franklin !
by Peter of Marino on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:15 pm
“A seamless regional economy” Obi
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:15 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
@
@michellegrattan Ms. Grattan, even Pres. Obama can say Madam Prime Minister, what about you!!!!!! #aubama #auspol
1 minute ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:16 pm
Obi keeps referring to our PM as “Julia”.
Good stuff.
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:17 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Apparently Pres. Obama has not stopped laughing since seeing this – http://twitpic.com/7eg3v3/full #aubama #auspol
5 minutes ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:18 pm