Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
The military super is currently indexed in the same way as the APS super more generally is indexed – by CPI rather than by the rate of inflation, I believe.
CPI is usually lower than inflation.
The politicians know how to look after themselves – they have their super indexed to the rate of inflation.
The Government has looked into APS super indexation but will not touch it with a barge pole.
Too expensive.
Mr Abbott has ignored the invidious unfairness of boosting defence super to rate of inflation indexing while leaving the rest of the APS in the CPI doghouse.
But I suppose there may not be too many APS swing seats?
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:18 pm
No. I’m afraid it was “Julie G’Laaaaard”.
Hadley will have a field day tomorrow.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:19 pm
Danny exactly my thoughts
Woman always prepare for the un k own. On I mportant occasions
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:19 pm
Finns
It’s even funnier when you look closely at the Unhinged One’s face inside the suit.
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:20 pm
Whenever Tony does that, he always comes across as looking like FogHorn LegHorn
by Mick Collins on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:20 pm
Boerwar
CPI is (a measure of) the rate of inflation
Is perhaps the issue AWE (Average Weekly Earnings) adjustment?
by Laocoon on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:21 pm
Yes called the president correctly mr president,
Let’s see if they c all. The prime minister, prime minister
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:22 pm
At last… “Julia”.
The Press Conference was late. Alan Jones should write Julia one of his famous letters.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:22 pm
Mick C
“I say, that boy’s about as sharp as a bowling ball!”
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:22 pm
Well, I don’t like the stationing of US troops on a permanent basis in Australia. It tends to foreclose some of the flexibility we might need over the coming decades.
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:22 pm
L
Whatever it is, defence and APS retiree pensions are indexed at a lesser rate that the pensions of pollies.
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:24 pm
Yeah, makes it harder to attack the United States…
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:24 pm
BK, that picture will go down in OZ political history as the most stupid spin attempt ever.
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:25 pm
joe2
My argument is that it is inconsistent to yell “Fukushima!!” to try and stop Indian exports when you are happy for Russia, China and Japan to get uranium exports, which is the Labor policy.
by Diogenes on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:25 pm
If this was the &.30 show, Obama would have been interrupted three or fur times and told to answer the question.
Clearly not a press conference where the media are not “asking the tough questions”, Down Under-style.
I’m trying to imagine Hadley shouting at Obama down the phone, calling him a clown and an idiot. Then hanging up on him.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:26 pm
Good evening all.
Watching joint presser with Obama and Gillard. US journos have much more substantive questions for the leaders compared with the Oz ones.
*not surprised*
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:27 pm
Scarps
No way!! It’s much easier. This way we can just attack them at their base in Australia. Think of the savings on transport!!
by Diogenes on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:27 pm
An American journo asks a question almost without moving her lips.
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:27 pm
Diog, that could cost you money. Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc is watching.
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:27 pm
Scarpat
Australia’s future lies in juggling it relationships with the US, Japan, China, India and Indonesia.
This is a bit more complicated than our traditional approach of leaning on a single big brother and relying on that to solve our foreign policy challenges.
Our future requires a bit more maturity, a bit more sophistication and a bit more agility.
Having US troops permanently stationed in Australia solves none of our problems and reduces our options.
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:29 pm
Diogenes,
Damn! You’re right! I knew there was a reason for the Adelaide to Darwin railway.
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:29 pm
Michelle Grattan is canary yellow, slouched in her seat and chewing her pen… hmmmm
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:31 pm
BB
Was just thinking the same thing…
By the way, they just flashed some footage of your innamorata. I am refraining from saying, ‘Pretty in bright yellow.’
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:31 pm
Boerwar,
Since your good self and Finns have cornered the emoticon market, I couldn’t type a wink.
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:31 pm
So that’s where the GG’s first outfit went…
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:33 pm
Looked like she was havin’ a snooze.
by ruawake on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:33 pm
Carbon price question from the Comedian.
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:34 pm
Except the murmurer, who did ask about international economics issues.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:35 pm
S
cf: your 2423, we have patented, IPed and trade marked the term ‘emoticon’.
Our invoice is in the mail.
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:35 pm
Oh noes, Obama bringing up “scientists”! – I can just hear Tone gnashing teeth and yelling “unfair”!!
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:35 pm
I think Mark Riley made a boo-boo. He said “Now Oz has decided to export uranium to India …”
Not yet, Mark.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:35 pm
BW, sometimes we do over state our importance, politically, in Asia. China & India will do what best for their own interests.
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:36 pm
I get the feeling Obama is 3/4 asleep. Jet lag, poor bugger.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:37 pm
La Stupenda looking particularly old-boilerish.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:38 pm
Yes, indeed. We have some chance of beating four of those countries at cricket.
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:39 pm
Finns
I agree with that statement. My point was that as a mouse in a room full of very large and very self-interested elephants, it is unwise to tie ourselves too closely to the one elephant, however nice that elephant happens to be.
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:39 pm
I’m just swooning. I could watch and listen to him all night!
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:39 pm
I was actually thinking the striking yellow jacket suits her.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:40 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Dear PM Gillard: It’s not Bali Hai – It’s Selamat Datang #aubama #auspol
3 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:40 pm
Bushfire
I have heard him in pressers before and he seems to choose his words very carefully and speak slowly when they aren’t pre-scripted.
jet lag is always possible as well, of course.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:41 pm
Finns,
I thought that, when dealing with the Americans, it was Hai Five?
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:42 pm
The presser was a bit flat IMHO
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:44 pm
Good to see a US president who does think about what he says and can speak unscripted.
Gillard presenting very well. No umms and aaahhhs from this girl.
by imacca on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:44 pm
Great tweet:
by Scarpat on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:44 pm
BK:
Journos were respectful. No gotcha attempts on the PM.
Quite different from normal PM pressers.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:47 pm
workchoices, Russian style, or a rather stylisish remuneration arbitrage play:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/otkritie-ubs-olympus-news-corp-bp-boeing-in-court-news.html
by Laocoon on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:48 pm
The male lion frightened the hyenas.
I wonder whether Mr Obama pretended to defuse non-existent IEDs while wearing a mine disposal suit in the run up to the last Presidential election?
Memo: must suggest it to him as a way to impress the US electorate with his policy credentials.
by Boerwar on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:50 pm
Two biggies:
1. Obi referred to “Julia” twice without “Gillard”
2. US journo asked Mr President a question and Julia answered it.
That second one is a real biggie! Might get a play in the US of A.
Suffer in your jocks, Spaced out man!
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:51 pm
LOL
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:52 pm
10:15 tomorrow.
10:16 – Mr Pyne: Point of order!
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 6:54 pm