Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Joe 2 @ 239. Don’t set me off.
Could he really try to be a two trick Tony? Instead of “NO!” He’s saying nothing.
Maybe he’ll have a second go at a drop off to visit the troops in Afghanistan as a diversion from the PM’s current media glow? That didn’t do much for him first time, did it?
He could go m.i.a. there perhaps. Now that would be a great exit line. Almost out-shine Harold Holt’s disappearance.
by PatriciaWA on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:50 am
upperhouse member of parliament for the Eastern metro region as well as the opposition (ALP) whip
by Leroy on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:53 am
Laocoon:
True, although O’Dwyer is often talked about as a future Cabinet minister, and Frydenberg was praised by Abbott as ‘it’s nice to finally have someone in the party who knows about foreign affairs’. I think you’re a bit harsh on young Wyatt though!
Add John Alexander to Paul Fletcher in the clunker category as well IMO.
by confessions on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:56 am
The Peter Hartcher School Of Political Journalism says that level pegging is “too close to call”.
Any professional race caller worth their salt would comment on who’s gaining and who’s tiring this far out from the finish line. All Hartcher – and most of the rest – can do is to take a snapshot of polls and falsely
assumepretend that things will stay as they are from now until voting day.It allows them to talk the government down.
Phrases such as “and Gillard is in a disastrous position”, “going by the polls Tony Abbott is a shoo-in to be Prime Minister”, or “make no mistake, although showing a slight improvement, the numbers are still devastating for Julia Gillard” demonstrate (at best) how shallow is the reportage of the so-called “gurus”, or (at worst) how much of an agenda -talking down the government at every opportunity – they are running.
The smarmy, pin-strip suited Hartcher believes he is not a member of the media. He calls his colleagues “those in the front row of the political show”, and writes plonkingly of their “new orthodoxy” in thinking the government is improving its position with the public.
Sadly this doesn’t fit in with the Hartcher Theory Of Everything that has the nation leaderless, wallowing, treading water and “failing” to respond to “crises”. This is all a regugitation of his worthless book (which has not rated even a revue so far on the net).
The man, his colleagues and the rest of the herd really do need to wake up to themselves and do some work, rather than pontificate from their lounge rooms (or perhaps it’s their toilet seats, judging by the crap they put out as informed opinion).
Why do their employers pay these people? They miss just about every breaking story, and their prediction success rates are worse than flipping a coin.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 14, 2011 at 10:58 am
If Gillard was game enough to put it up on an iPad in front of the next press conference it’d tickle their fancies enough (as an “exraordinary stunt”) that they’d have to play it.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:01 am
mari
Here’s Mike Papntonio’s follow up to the Penn State story.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385×634443
by BK on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:03 am
fess
I had forgotten about John Alexander – how was that possible?!
Actually, on young Wyatt, is there any local knowledge as to how much traction he is getting in the seat with his constituents? Is he building a local profile, working away?
by Laocoon on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:03 am
GG & BB – maybe not the PM, but perhaps someone like Albo could be designated to do an iPad stunt with Tony’s conflicting speeches.
by Leroy on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:08 am
Nielson says Gillard is preferred PM in all age groups except 55+
ALP ahead in SA/NT 53-47 (probably small sample)
Respondent allocated 2pp ALP 46 LNP 54 (full tables at mumble)
http://mumble.com.au/pdfs/federal/nielsen/Nielsen%20Poll%20table%20Nov%202011.pdf
by docantk on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:11 am
Love your faith and loyalty, My Say. And I must add that Ian was truly inspirational when calm and fortitude were called for 5 months ago.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:13 am
BK – check out this guy Dave Zirin, who writes about issues “Where Sports and Politics Collide”.
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/dave-zirin
Articles in The Nation repeated on his own blog. Perhaps he was a blogger who made the move to a broader publication.
http://www.edgeofsports.com/
Has some good articles on the Penn State issue. Also on Twitter.
http://twitter.com/#!/EdgeofSports
by Leroy on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:18 am
docantk
What I found interesting in the tables was the PPM and approval/disapproval scores for the PM and Tony Abbott were almost identical in the rural and city classifications. Perhaps the rural/urban divide is not so wide as we often assume.
by poroti on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:24 am
Augustus
It’s a difficult issue; how frank should the reporting be about someone who has just died, esp if it was a suicide, and how soon after is it OK.
by Diogenes on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:29 am
docantk @ 258
All the more reason to have an upper, as well as a lower age voting limit ….
Just kidding, as I am rapidly approaching that particular age barrier.
by The Big Ship on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:30 am
Wasn’t there some polling in Longman a little while ago which showed comfortable leads to the LNP there? I am possibly thinking of another electorate though.
While young Wyatt regurgitates a lot of coalition talking points in his parliamentary speeches, he at least gives the impression of thinking about things, is articulate, and seems to do a lot of work with young people in the community. Unlike Alex Hawke who is just a hack, and whose speeches reek of Young Liberal nonsense.
by confessions on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:30 am
Dio – this is one answer to your question
(Gusface and many others may find it offensive)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKboE2jrUqA
by Oakeshott Country on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:32 am
Diogenes:
As I understand it there will be an inquest, which will no doubt be reported ever step of the way by the world’s media.
I don’t think the inquest should be sealed just because Roebuck was well-known. Btw, here’s an excellent piece on him.
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/peter-we-hardly-knew-you-but-you-told-the-game-like-no-other-20111113-1ndvn.html
by confessions on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:34 am
OC
I had that sketch in mind as it typed my post!!
by Diogenes on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:35 am
Diogenes
I think at the moment we should say nothing as we know little to nothing about what really happened. Anything we say would be little more than scuttlebutt and gossip. Perhaps we should ask ourselves how we would feel if we were friends or family of the guy reading such speculations ?
by poroti on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:36 am
Not sure of Brian Toohey’s economic credentials. I assume he has some, working for the Fin Rev. But He was not a fan of Keating, who deserves most of the credit on super. Keating was concerned on two fronts: funding retirees, and forcing some savings (for investment) now. Super also helped limit wage inflation.
Toohey is wrong on this. My impression, looking at world events, is that Australia dodged the bullet of the GFC1 not just through the actions of Rudd’s kitchen cabinet and Ken Henry and Glen Stevens. The compulsory super also helped.
I get the impression that our savings level, led by super, was a big part of weather-proofing our economy then and now.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:38 am
by victoria on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:41 am
I’m watching Roy Morgan have a dummy spit on A-PAC. He says that our biggest problem is the economy in Europe and it’s “just stupid” to bring in a carbon tax and put people out of work. He also said that WorkChoices was the best policy the country has ever had and that John Howard just lay down and let the unions do him over. It doesn’t take much to get him charged up. And he’s still defending face-to-face polling as the best method.
by triton on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:41 am
Here’s the most interesting thing I found from Nielsen:
18-24 year olds
2PP: ALP 57 (+11) L/NP 43 (-11)
Primary Vote: ALP 35 (+3), L/NP 29 (-10), Greens 27 (+10)
Gillard: Approve 48 (+10), Disapprove 45 (-10)
Abbott: Approve 37 (-3), Disapprove 54 (0)
Preferred PM: Gillard 55 (+5), Abbott 40 (-6)
by spur212 on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:43 am
Sorry, Gary Morgan.
by triton on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:44 am
+11?
I meant +9 on the 2PP
My brain isn’t working this morning
by spur212 on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:45 am
Opposition’s NBN comes under more scrutiny and criticism.
http://delimiter.com.au/2011/11/14/citigroup-coalition-nbn-plan-difficult-to-achieve/
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:46 am
In other news, it turns out that the 14 yo Bali kid has already been cautioned twice for drug use in NSW. I thought pot was legal here.
by Diogenes on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:46 am
Good god man, that’s the raison d’être of PB, in the first place. (Apart from the other bits that William fills in.)
by joe2 on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:46 am
Also, I bet this Nielsen will freak Family First as they’re vote has been halved to 1%
by spur212 on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:46 am
Wrong poll LOL. Family First have doubled their vote to 2% … oh happy days!!!
by spur212 on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:50 am
Might be, but surely not for 14 year olds?
by Lynchpin on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:50 am
joe2
True but in this case I think we can hold off for a day or two. Meanwhile let the scuttlebutt,idle gossip and wild speculation about the political situation continue to flow forth in the usual PB torrents.
by poroti on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:50 am
Thanks for that reference, MTBW. All of them were graduates of Emmanuel College in 2009. This is where my daughters were schooled but earlier, graduating in 2003 and 2005. I’ve not contacted them yet, but rather doubt if they knew them.
Yesterday, I drove the Manager of a local hotel into work. He was called in because one of those dead was an employee, and several staff were too distraught to work.
He had special sympathy for another hotel patron who I now know must have been Mr Wright, father of the twins killed. This man had only lost his wife to cancer just over a year ago. Earlier in his life he had lost another daughter at aged 5 years.
Fate can be very cruel for some.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:54 am
Sitting on the pot is legal for 14 year olds.
by Scarpat on Nov 14, 2011 at 11:59 am
That would be the 14 year old whose parents took to Kuta “to get away from the drug culture”
by Oakeshott Country on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:01 pm
http://bobcarrblog.wordpress.com/2011/11/14/the-liberal-legacy-on-obama-an-embarrassment-for-abbott/
Nice little reminder on this.
by Leroy on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:02 pm
Spur, that is interesting. I assume these polls are conducted via landlines. I also assume that have a set number of people in each age category? Was just wondering whether the poll (in terms of categories of people polled) may be skewed to older respondents.
by Lynchpin on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:02 pm
Actually, I think pot is sort of illegal but it has been decriminalised, a bit like parking fines.
by Diogenes on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:07 pm
GD
How sad. Life can be more than cruel. It does not bear thinking about.
by victoria on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:08 pm
A question for the Twitteratia on PB. When logging on to Twitter I keep getting the following message Twitter.com is loading slowly it then says that if the problem persists try reloading which does absolutely nothing. The logon is successful but I am stuck on the page of the first twitterer I am following. Does anybody else have the same problem (I am using IE version 9)?
by Scarpat on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:09 pm
All this stuff on “where is Abbott” reminds me of that golden 24 seconds of silence…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wT9XS_TvzQ
by Laocoon on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:10 pm
Good thing Obama is arriving by plane. Isn’t he?
by kakuru on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:11 pm
One day William should interview or send a questionnaire to the major polling companies asking them about their policies and methodology are.
It could cover things like land-line vs mobile phones, long weekends, allocating preferences etc etc.
by Diogenes on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:12 pm
Indeed, poroti@281, ‘never lower than landeryou’.
by joe2 on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:12 pm
Not in NSW
As far as I know the maximum penalty for possession is $2200 or 2 years gaol
http://hempembassy.net/modules/content/index.php?id=21
by Oakeshott Country on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:13 pm
OC
I’m pretty sure in SA that you are allowed to own two or three plants for “personal use”.
by Diogenes on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:16 pm
What I find interesting in the Nielsen is how the country seems split. The two main mining states are pro Lib … whilst all the others are more Labor oriented.
Am wondering, once the mining tax is in train and the sky is still ‘up there’ that maybe the rabid anger will subside?
by jenauthor on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:16 pm
Got round my Twitter problem in #289 by installing Google Chrome.
by Scarpat on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:17 pm
kakuru
Obama has had plane probs to Australia before. I read an interview with a woman who knew Obama’s mother at university. Obama’s mother had been interested in coming to Australia for further work and study but there were immigration “problems” due to her having a “black son” . Obama could have ended up a strayan.
by poroti on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:18 pm
Alex Hawke being challenged by Robert Picone is going to be lettuce leaves at ten paces.
I went to college with Bob (I assume it’s the same bloke). I can’t see him terrorising the ALP benches with his scintillating repartee.
by Burgey on Nov 14, 2011 at 12:19 pm