Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
poroti, F-Troops?
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:18 pm
Petty! That said, given my problems with Obama’s policy/negotiating style, I’m glad he didn’t say JG is the one who most reminded him of himself.
by rishane on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:19 pm
The Finnigans
I saw enough double chins to make that not such a silly question.
by poroti on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:21 pm
I cannot find anything on apac
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:24 pm
my say
As of ten seconds ago i am watching Obama meet and greet a bunch of school kids.What a story they will have. Julia even got a hug.
by poroti on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:25 pm
my say
The coverage of the presidential dinner will continue shortly on the Sky channel soon
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:25 pm
Is Mr Hywood for real? Newspapers make stuff up and we can go to them with our concerns? Is he living on a different planet?
by ruawake on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:26 pm
Thanks TLBD
by george on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:27 pm
my say, gussie got message sent to him from the dinner
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:27 pm
For someone who doesn’t have Sky – who is at the table with the Pres?
Where is Howard? Abbott?
Please?
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:28 pm
If ABC24 isn’t covering Teh Visit what in the name of budgie smugglers are they doing?
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:28 pm
george,
What is your reaction? Margo is sorely missed.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:29 pm
tlbd
ABC24 seems to be repeating some sort of world news that I’ve seen twice before.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:30 pm
Obama has the left handed curl around arm style of writing.Something that all lefties brought up in the days of fountain pens will remember. A style forced because otherwise you immediately smudged the ink.Even then you still smudged the bits of the not fully dried ink and so got told you had messy writing. BOO HISS to those days.
by poroti on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:30 pm
It’s just a step to the right and finally our Prime Minister is looking and acting like a Prime Minister.
The Labor right as Hawke and Keating showed is basically the Australian centre.
She will soon overtake TA as preferred Prime Minister although I expect the 2 pp will stay around the 54 to 46 range for a while although the Obama visit might change that this Tuesday as a one off.
If Gillard gives Bob, Christine and Sarah the cold shoulder from now on she will actually lead Labor to the next Election which will ultimately be 52 to to 48 to someone!
by stanny on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:31 pm
btw
the parl broadcasting stuff did it up till 8pm
time is left for a bit of privacy whilst eating
i suspect we will get a feed back soon from sky et al
by gusface on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:31 pm
lizzie,
pm, obi, tim, swannie, rudd. kimbo? us ambassador
abbott is at another table
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:32 pm
The problem with writing leftie over the top is that you can’t see what and how you have just written. I think that would be a disorienting (and anyone who says “disorientating” should have a serious enema).
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:34 pm
Finns
oh joy!
But where’s Michelle? Haven’t seen her all day. Didn’t she come?
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:35 pm
lizzie,
No one excited her enough.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:36 pm
Lizzie, Michelle didnt come, she went back to DC from Hawaii apparently
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:38 pm
This little black duck
That was not such a problem. THE problem was trying to avoid your fore arm moving across the page and smudging the ink. Praise be to László Bíró and Marcel Bich .
by poroti on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:39 pm
Totally inappropriate, but Obama is a good sort.
by Dee on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:39 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
PM Gillard got more kisses from Pres. Obama in the last 2 weeks than from the First Bloke #aubama http://twitpic.com/7ega4t/full
1 minute ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:39 pm
Houston, we have a problem: Michelle O or Michelle G.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:40 pm
Sky will be bringing Obama’s, Gillard’s and Abbott’s speeches live from the dinner when they happen.
Should we have bets on how Unhingement Abbott gets in his speech? I’m tipping he’ll take a dig at carbon pricing.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:40 pm
fess,
Let us know. It may be having to lose Gruen.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:42 pm
Perhaps Persian writing, right to left, was invented by left-handers. Perfick!
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:42 pm
ABC24?
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:42 pm
confessions
Can Abbott help himself?
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:42 pm
What does the Book of Manners say?
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:44 pm
by Frank Calabrese on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:44 pm
confessions
Hmm I’m thinking http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwHWbsvgQUE followed by http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5dzvE7YMpA
by poroti on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:44 pm
ABC24 saying Gillard/Obama seem very friendly because he kissed her on both cheeks.
Duh? Never been to Europe?
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:45 pm
Ducky:
Record Gruen and watch the dinner!
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:45 pm
The adavantages of 3 hour time difference into WA : – )
by Frank Calabrese on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:45 pm
Steve Bracks is also there. Don’t know about Brumby tho.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:46 pm
Nothing will save #NewsCorp now. No matter how high the paywall is
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/writedowns-push-news-deep-into-the-red-20111115-1nh97.html#ixzz1drOWBxAO
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:47 pm
Profess,
Just issued instruction so to swambo (oops, request!)
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:47 pm
tlbd
Gruen Planet repeated at 9pm on ABC2 on Thursday.
by lizzie on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:48 pm
Andrew Elder’s latest blog post.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2011/11/draconian-journalism.html
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:48 pm
Latika is looking and talking good stuff.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:48 pm
Ta, lizzie.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:49 pm
They are saying Timbo earned points by walking.
by This little black duck on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:53 pm
Ducky
Latika is molta simpatica
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:54 pm
This little black duck
Was that with or without chewing gum at the same time ?
by poroti on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:56 pm
Ducky, plenty of good fixes will only do her good
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:56 pm
It was a good moment. You don’t get more down to earth than that!
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:57 pm
JG dinner speech on now.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 8:58 pm
Her jokes were a bit flat, but she’s hit her straps now.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 9:01 pm