Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
rishane
Exactly!
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:07 pm
Night ducky
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Also think of the contrasting visions of Australia between
Gillard: outward looking countries (wtte)
Abbott: English speaking people
English speaking people??? What is he: channelling Cecil Rhodes, Winston Churchill and Rattus Rattus.
Yep, this is Australia’s “alternate prime minister” China, Japan, Indonesia, etc etc etc
by Laocoon on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:09 pm
Latest on ABC Chairman:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/abc-chairman-still-up-in-air-20111113-1ndrq.html#ixzz1doj9RHZJ
by Frank Calabrese on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:09 pm
Trying to catch,up did u all hear his speach,
Who is being complementary the usual. Ones
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:10 pm
Where can I watch the President and listen to his speech uninterrupted by commentary from ABC fools and precorded promos?
by PatriciaWA on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:12 pm
Rueters report
http://www.france24.com/en/20111116-usa-expand-military-presence-australia-asia-pacific-strategic-deployment
More in the article
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8375036/obama-dines-on-australian-lamb
The fluffy stuff. More in the article
by Leroy on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:14 pm
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:16 pm
Did Abbott mean the ‘extremes’ part? Sounds odd.
by rishane on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:17 pm
Slagging by omission
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:20 pm
I notice mike kelly mp
Didn’t mention tabbooott. Speach
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:20 pm
rishane
Probably “its dreams”
by shellbell on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:21 pm
I saw them sitting down to dinner but then had to go out.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:21 pm
PatriciaWA
It will be on SBS tomorrow morning
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:23 pm
That’s what I thought. So either the reporter got it wrong or Tony screwed up.
by rishane on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:23 pm
rishane,
That wasn’t what Abbott said today was it? No-one would use the words, ‘colour of their skin’ at any of today’s functions surely?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:25 pm
Pyne, Ruddock and Bishop were probably complaining to each other as to why they got stuck with that idiot Howes.
by DavidWH on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:25 pm
What did mrs abbott wear
What colour was julia outfit
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:25 pm
Night all.
by BK on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:26 pm
Night BK
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:27 pm
I haven’t watched it, but that’s a quote.
by rishane on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:28 pm
I must be having a weird night. I saw the Abbott speech and, to be honest, I thought it was innocuous. I didn’t think it was terrible; not a triumph by any means, but hardly worthy of being criticised. My first impression was that he was attempting to soften his image, try to be a bit more expansive than usual and play the room a bit. Then I thought, well, it’s not PM material, but he’s not PM. Whatever power he had to drag the ALP vote down, it’s gone now. In fact, the better the speech plays the happier I am. It sets up false expectations as to what he can achieve from here.
Saw the Hamster Wheel too, and their ALP sketch. I laughed. It’s not accurate, but it’s still funny. I thought the whole show was pretty sharp tonight. Especially the closing bit with the talkback quotes on Gillard.
I think I know what’s going on with me. Since early 2010, I’ve been seriously worried that the Coalition would, some time soon, be running the country. And that there was nothing the ALP could do to stop the momentum. In the past few weeks, I’ve stopped worrying. I don’t see Abbott as a threat any more, and I reckon the ALP are up to being mocked a bit, because they’re on top of things completely.
I don’t think I’ve felt like this since around 2007, when I was convinced Howard was gone and that the good ALP polling under Rudd wasn’t going to go away before the election.
by Aguirre on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:28 pm
Wonder what sort of speech LOTO Turnbull might have made
*shuffles off to bed*
by Laocoon on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:30 pm
what do you mean by we, white man
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:31 pm
May be its young libs tweeting
To help him out
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:31 pm
I hope they aren’t coming ashore in their amphibious landing-craft, or Ban Morrison will get very angry.
by Acerbic Conehead on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:32 pm
People are stretching some awfully long bow strings regarding Abbott’s speech. Innocuous and instantly forgettable.
by Goshome on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:34 pm
Acquire. I think. I know what u mean, we are not as fearfull
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:35 pm
That’s a good point. You can even feel it in the way a lot of the media is struggling to adjust to changed conditions.
by rishane on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:36 pm
Aguirre
I get exactly where you are coming from. I too feel the pressure is off the govt.
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:38 pm
So inocuous
/ I nsipid……..lacking vigor or interest, so does that mean boring
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:39 pm
Goshome.
The search for the dogs continues. I am still following up every call, advertising and putting up posters, etc.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:39 pm
Night all. See you on the flipside
by victoria on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:41 pm
Sbs. Good I love it when I can give the abc a big miss
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:41 pm
Finny,
Tell me abbott didn’t say that. How cringement!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:41 pm
Puff have u had any clues as to where to look
What if the local paper took a photo of u and pictures of your fury darlings, and u pleading
T
For them to be bought back
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:44 pm
Sad to hear that PMD but I have no doubt you will keep searching.
by Goshome on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:45 pm
FRom my Hotmail Junk email folder:
Dear Friend.
How are you today?. Well it is a pleasure to contact you on this regard and i prayed that this will turned out to be ever lasting relationship for both of us.How ever it’s just my urgent need for a Foreign partner that made me to contact you for this Transaction.
I am a banker by profession from Burkina-faso in west Africa and currently holding the post of Director Auditing and Accounting Unit of the Bank.I have the opportunity of transferring the left over fund (10.5 Million Us Dollars)Ten Million Five Hundred Thousand United States of American Dollars of one of my Bank clients who died along with his supposed next of kin in an air crash at Kenya.
Hence I am inviting you for a business deal where the money can be shared between both of Us in the ratio of 60% / 40% .
If you are really intrested in my proposal further details of the Transfer will be forwarded unto you as soon as I receive your return mail.
Have a nice day.
Mr Noble Abbott
]
[
by Frank Calabrese on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:45 pm
Puff do u think the libs will put the speach on their site
Problem is I cannot go there,
I feel unclean when i do on very rare occasions
by my say on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:47 pm
Obama speaks “Aussie”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGbp47ygr4&feature=feedu
by Frank Calabrese on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:50 pm
Journos hilarious today on Twitter. Most being like schoolkids trying to act cool and unimpressed by big excursion.
by Goshome on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:52 pm
The best way to judge how this visit is being taken in the US is to watch tomorrow nights “Talk Shows”.
Be interesting to hear Letterman’s and Fergerson’s take on Prime Minister Gillard and “The First Bloke”
by Mick Collins on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:53 pm
and the reason for interviewing Mesma on the NT base announcement is ?
by Mick Collins on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:54 pm
Remember Abbott interview on some local ABC and he accused the interviewer of being anti Britain or some such, even uttering the words ‘cultural cringe’?
Will try to hunt transcript down, which IIRC was posted on the Liberals website.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:55 pm
by Frank Calabrese on Nov 16, 2011 at 10:56 pm
Memo ABC: The Coalition are not the Government.
Who cares what they have to say ?
by Mick Collins on Nov 16, 2011 at 11:00 pm
Nothing on CNN or Fox News (I know, I know) about Obama’s trip down under.
Thankfully BBC covering it.
by confessions on Nov 16, 2011 at 11:05 pm
Fatima on ABC95
by Frank Calabrese on Nov 16, 2011 at 11:06 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
China new 5 yr economic plan to move away from exports of low-end manufacturing, not be sustainable in the long term. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2011-11/15/c_131248819.htm
21 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 16, 2011 at 11:09 pm
Fresh from the G20, and the Asia Pacific Forum, President Obama and Julia Gillard get together and thrash out a bilateral defence policy, the start of something ongoing and a sure sign of fellowship between Australia and the US.
21 guns salutes, Air Force #1, a state dinner, with tomorrow an address to the Parliament…
So, who does Lateline put on to assess it all?
Julie Bishop.
Bishop agrees with EVERYTHING that has been determined, down to i’s dotted and t’s crossed. Steve Cannane interrupts just about every answer she tries to give.
Weird.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 16, 2011 at 11:11 pm