Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:05 am
An interesting piece by Mark Dreyfus on the Biodiversity Fund.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/blogs/the-dreyfus-files/making-an-ally-of-the-land-in-the-fight-against-climate-change-20111116-1nihl.html
A funny take on yesterday’s defence announcement by Cathy Wilcox.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
And Ron Tandberg on the Eurozone.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:08 am
Morning all.
This one from Fins amused me:
Ah yes, Tony Abbott, the great-right hater. Presumably he believes he has to love his neighbor, but I imagine he interprets that advice fairly narrowly. So if you aren’t Tony’s neighbor then he can hate you. I doubt he lives next door to any unionists in Manly.
by Socrates on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:09 am
2,500 troops aren’t going to stop any Chinese invasion. They’d be squashed like a mozzie on a wall.
They are also not a threat, or “sabre rattling”, for the same reason.
Since the bases in the Phillipines closed down, America’s Asian presence is limited to ground forces in Japan and South Korea, plus airforce and naval bases in Guam, Diego Garcia and Japan. The “bases” cupboard is pretty bare lately.
A smallish base in Darwin is far from the action, and is mostly symbolic, more a self-reassurance for America than a challenge to China.
Which is pretty-well exactly what Obama said.
On the other side of China we have Russia, armed to the teeth with nukes (as is the US) and with large forces in Siberia (which contains much of their natural wealth).
If it comes down to a fight between the West and China’s 1.6 billion people, a Marine base, though nice, ain’t going to make any difference when the symbolism’s done with.
It makes us, and other little countries in the area, feel a little safer, and the Americans a little more confident as they return to SE Asia. The Chinese would have to have expected this, sooner or later.
It’s just what Yanks do. They have bases. Putting one in Australia seems pretty obvious to me.
The hand-wringing by the self-appointed military gurus
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:09 am
Jason Clare currently on Agenda.
This guy has genuine presence and bearing, something sadly lacking from most of those on the Opposition benches.
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:10 am
… is just that. They like to think they know more than the government or the armed forces. It’s how they get noticed.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:11 am
I’m with Puff – it was crass.
by BH on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:13 am
Now is it Newt Gingich’s turn to crash and burn?
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2011/11/16/gingrich-bubble-already-popping/
The Mormon will be the last man standing.
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:18 am
Interesting look at the media this morning. I hear Obama is in town. He must be, there is this story on the Indonesian and Chinese reaction to some policy between Australia and USA:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-17/china-indonesia-wary-of-us-troops-in-darwin/3675866
I wonder if Obama made some speech here? I can’t tell from the ABC either. Pathetic. Fortunately the SMH does give some clue that the two leaders actually said something:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/us-here-to-stay-in-asia-says-obama-20111116-1njdb.html
Still no coverage of the forced eviction of the Occupy Berkeley movement yet either, as per my comment previously. It is bad enough no longer having news provided by properly trained journalists. We don’t even have story compilers capable of detecting what is being reported elsewhere in the world, unless it is fed to them by NBC, or goes viral on YouTube.
by Socrates on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:18 am
Bolt has a post up titled:
Acutally, for the first time, I agree with him.
He also quote Paul Murray, on Labor “hypocrisy”:
The difference is that Bush was a dumb-as-dogshit murderer, who invented a war, wrecked the world economy, failed to capture Osama and was hated here in Australia.
Osama, even though spotted as a “friend” of Osama, managed to get Osama and is universally liked here in Australia. He is also trying to clean up after Bush’s historic retreat from Asia, as well as the economic damage he wreaked.
Don’t expect a poll bounce from any of this.
Australians hate to be told they will automatically approve of anything. They’d vote Gillard down on the Obama visit just to spite the gurus who operate on the basis that they can be herded.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:20 am
Re: the peppering of his ‘speech’ with the word “Sir” – Was Abbott being conspicuously over-polite, in the way some people do when they actually wish to show contempt for the person they’re speaking to? His bringing of skin colour into it might have been a giveaway. Perhaps his obsequious use of “Sir” was a dogwhistle to those who’d have wanted him to say “Boy”.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/young-liberals-caught-up-in-barack-obama-monkey-twitter-scandal/story-e6frfro0-1225854398646
by Cuppa on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:24 am
For mari
Next Mike Papantonio piece on the Penn State issue.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385×635265
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:25 am
Sprocket. Tell them we are very cheered up , by the polls at tne moment and the p m approval rating
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:27 am
Abbott’s speech was a bit too sycophantic, over-the-top and, considering it’s about the US and Obama, very narcissistic. However, it was light and good humoured.
But it was just a dinner speech, they’re always light and inoffensive.
by Carey Moore on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:28 am
I have had a quick glance in the media , does not seem to be much on Abbott”s speech except the OZ who report on the”colour of skin” part, did the TV Breakfast shows report on him,? I saw a little on one of the channels, not sure which one might have been 10 as I was changing the bed at the same time, saw JG and BO speakng but thats all.
by mari on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:29 am
Socrates,
Sounds like a right-wing bias-by-exclusion from Australia’s right-wing media.
by Cuppa on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:32 am
I am sure the people of darwin will also see material benefits also
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:32 am
[BK
Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 8:25 am | Permalink
For mari
Next Mike Papantonio piece on the Penn State issue.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385×635265
Had an email from my friend in Penns she said it is getting worst, and what you have linked it is, many thanks to you BK, I appreciate the links
by mari on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:32 am
Very true, but some comparisons with Australia’s current & Vietnam era troop levels.
During the vietnam war we had 9 battalions which is Division strength.
Of that we had 3 battalions in Vietnam (a Brigade, it was really a reinforced Brigade and called a Task Force ).
Another 3 battalions had returned to Australia on a staggered rotation basis, while the remaining 3 battalions were working up for staggered deployment to Vietnam.
Currently we have 8 regular battalions, soon to be 9 again, plus the reserves some of which are suitable for deployment if needed.
2500 US marines is basically Brigade strength of 3 Battalions, so in relation to our current deployable strength, it is a significant number.
Not many places in the world for the US to have access to such large training areas, particularly bombing ranges for the B-52′s and other aircraft.
If US subs operate out of Darwin it takes things to an even higher level. We certainly need to have more of our Collins class subs sea worthy at any given time then is currently the case.
Even better still replace them with modern off the shelf German subs for less than escalating maintenance costs of the current fleet.
by dave on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:34 am
mari
In what way is it getting worse for those at Penn State?
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:34 am
Interestingly, Henderson’s government in NT goes to the polls next year. I wonder if this announcement will have any effect on the Darwin vote
by Carey Moore on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:34 am
mari
Here’s another one for you.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/16/jon-stewart-jerry-sandusky-interview-bob-costas_n_1096807.html
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:37 am
I’m signing off for a while. More whipper snipping until it’s time for the Obama address to the joint sitting.
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:38 am
Bob Carr interviewed on Agenda. He has had nothing but good things to say about the deal between the US and Aus re troops in Darwin etc. He believes JG has pulled off a great deal
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:45 am
Good morning all.
Have any of the current Liberals repudiated Howard’s statement that an Obama victory would be good for terrorists? Do they still believe it?
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 8:56 am
It is here.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3676272.html
I have to agree.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:02 am
confessions
Appears the coalition are fully supportive of the US/AUS alliance
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:02 am
confessions
Should I bother reading MFarnsworth? Been a while since I bothered. His contempt for Gillard was a turn off
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:04 am
Of course. They don’t want some State Dept hack working to see them defeated at the next election.
by Carey Moore on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:05 am
vic
farnsworth isnt worth the trouble
by gusface on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:06 am
gusface
Thanks
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:06 am
Farnsworth said something negative about Gillard? Stop. The. Press.
by Carey Moore on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:08 am
Or panicked? BTW, has anyone heard anything recently from CATA’s ‘No Carbon Tax’ rally? Past
up since the rally was first announced, I can’t find anything further – except that, on the date 21 September 2013, that it’s now 674days: 17hrs: 22mins: to the next election (CATA is calling for an election NOW!)
by OzPol Tragic on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:09 am
Frankly I have no idea what farnsworth wants from our politicians. His cynicism Seems to be focussed on this term of governance. Does he seriously think things were so much better in the past? There is something quite odd about him.
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:11 am
Julia looked very nervous to me during the 6PM news conference yesterday – understandable, I guess, as this was a big occasion.
Obama is a very laid back character, always looks very relaxed and in control of his emotions.
Rudd can launch any book he wants to, even ones on the ALP, former leaders of the party should have that luxury.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:12 am
Listened to Bruce and Phil late last night on 3AW who are normally as conservative as they come. They could not have been more effusive in their praise of JG and her welcome to President Obama.
Then I tuned into the poor man’s shock jock Neil Mitchell this morning and he couldn’t find anything right with it. She was too nervous, too sychophantic, too this, too that. He even implied that in one photo Juiia had her hand on Obama’s buttocks. When the first caller totally disagreed with him and accused him of always being too hard on JG, Mitchell couldn’t get him off the line quickly enough. His parting shot was wtte that it is his job to be hard on the PM.
A truly pathetic performance by an arrogant, one eyed bastard.
by Darn on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:14 am
And everything isn’t fine & dandy with the internal structure of the ALP, even the PM has acknowledged that.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:14 am
Naturally. But equally naturally is that they won’t turn their backs on anything he says/said.
It’s just interesting.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:14 am
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:14 am
He’s on record as writing that the hateful, misogynist political discourse today is nothing on what it was earlier last century.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:16 am
Darn
I would not waste my time listening to anything Mitchell has to say. He is an overpaid buffoon. He has always criticised tradies, construction workers and the like. He has spent the past 20 years sitting on his backside talking crap
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:18 am
Just a bit more on this. Not so much the 2500 marines, but Darwin’s close proximity to China’s vital shipping route for the majority of its energy. ie oil from the middle east.
Currently oil tankers inbound to China transit the Straits of Malacca, between Singapore and Malaysia. Singapore in particular is a staunch US ally.
Alternative deep water routes for the tankers to run up to China are the Sunda Strait near Jakarta and further south Lombok Strait to the East of Bali.
http://maps.google.com.au/maps?hl=en&tab=wl
In the event of US – Chinese conflict or even a significant deterioration of the their relationship, the Chinese do not want the US as close as Darwin or perish the thought, US subs based there so close to their energy shipping lanes.
The US already have very close ties to Singapore with regular naval visits etc, but basing troops or subs in Darwin will increase the discomfort of the Chinese.
Is it just what the US are trying to do? These choke points have serious potential.
Our Government and Defence Chiefs would be well aware of it too.
Will the media say so and when?
by dave on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:18 am
Obama meets the Liberals’ leadership team.
Obi: I am pleased to meet you, Mr Abbott. (Offers hand)
TA: It’s a pleasure to meet you, Sir. (Grabs Obi’s hand, pulls him close, turns to cameras)
That’s one for the grandkids. I’ll look great. You’ll look good, too, with that tan. I guess you use coconut oil?
Obi: Er… this is your Deputy, I believe?
TA: Oh yeah, this is Medusa… sorry, Julie. Ms Julie, ah, Bishop. Sir.
(Whispering in Obi’s ear): Don’t worry, she always looks like that.
Obi: I am delighted to meet you, Ms Bishop. (Offers hand)
JB: It’s a pleasure to be close to real power, Sir. (Grabs Obi’s hand, pulls him close, turns to camera)
SFX: The distant sound of 100 thousand TV sets exploding.
JB: That’s one for my gynaecologist.
Obi: So… Foreign Policy…
TA: Yeah, good idea, that. Julie, who have we got doing foreign policy?
JB gives TA the death-stare. TA returns it, but is frozen.
JB: As the Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, I will copy policies from anyone except the government.
Obi: But Ms Bishop… surely… a robust discussion?
TA (snapping out of his stupor): Yeah, good idea, that. Great, that’s the policy detail done with. Are you up for a run, Baz? Maybe a triathlon? I bet you’d look good in a pair of Speedos…
by Ozymandias on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:19 am
You would have read BK link to me, my Penns friend told me a week or so ago about it, he was very well respected and “sponsored” underprivileged kids on football scholarships and “looked” after them. He was sprung evidently in the act who reported it. Now everyone is running for cover and they are getting sprung too on coverups? and my friend thinks it will get worst as more and more comes out, she has quite a bit to do with the Uni and knows sponsors and donors to the uni, the funds are drying up and it is an awful mess
by mari on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:19 am
confessions
So does Farnsworth wants the discourse to be ramped up?
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:20 am
Abbott is reportedly going to raise climate change action with Obama during their meeting.
He says the US is pursuing the same policies as the coalition’s. He forgets that Obama campaigned on introducing an ETS, but the Congress wouldn’t pass it.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:21 am
mari
Appreciate the feedback
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:21 am
victoria:
I read that column as him making excuses for the behaviour of the coalition towards the PM and the disrepect shown towards the Office of PM by the Liberal party.
It was a very strange article.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:22 am
confessions
I have come to the conclusion that Farnsworth is an oddball.
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:24 am
What’s really his job?
To be hard on the PM?
Or to be a conservative commentator?
Let’s face it, he wouldn’t even have a job in the Australian media if he wasn’t going to put conservative views.
by Cuppa on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:24 am