Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Yesterday the ABC website had a short video of the First Bloke walking from Parliament House back to the Lodge after the official welcome. It was easier for him to walk than drive due to the road closures around Parliament House.
What impressed me was the relative freedom the PM’s partner has in Australia to move around without security, compared with the President’s family in America.
by citizen on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:27 am
The Sydney Morning Herald sub editors can’t even spell the PM’s name right! On the front page of their online edition, top right in the ‘video news’ box it says ‘Obama praises down to earth Julie’ when this is clearly not what the President actually said, where he did refer to the PM as ‘Julia’ at least 3 times in the joint press conference.
http://www.smh.com.au/
I wonder how long before someone notices, and fixes it?
by The Big Ship on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:27 am
Which article is this reported?
First Christmas party of the year today, to me last Christmas has just passed!
by mari on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:30 am
Australia wants to become a middle power and it wants to align itself with the US and India over China, for very obvious reasons. That’s the agenda.
Yes, we are currently the quarry of this deal but that’s where a responsible government uses the money from this to invest in their future and infrastructure so it can ascend in its status and function in the world, whereas an irresponsible government just gives the money away in tax cuts or benefits.
by Carey Moore on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:31 am
mari:
Abbott was interviewed on MelanKochie and he said that’s what he was going to raise.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:32 am
Darn:
Has anybody ever asked him why it’s his job to be hard on the PM? Or indeed, whether he was anywhere near as critical of Howard? Howard was sycophantic, and nervy too. He also has any of a number of physical attributes that could be forensically, let’s say, analysed. I just don’t recall Mitchell ever claiming it was his job to do that at the time. In fact, if I recall, he was always banging on about Bracks back then.
It’s not Mitchell’s job to be hard on the PM, or anyone for that matter. Not unless there’s some 3AW edict requiring that sort of bias from him. It’s his job to analyse and criticise in as balanced a way as he can; and if he’s any good at what he does inform and enlighten. He’s not some man propping up a bar, having a brief glance at the newspaper and moaning about “bloody Gillard”. If he wants to be that man, then fine, but he can drop the ego because he’s no better than about a million other people.
Someone ought to tell him it’s impossible to take the high moral ground while you’re standing in the gutter.
by Aguirre on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:33 am
Julia looked very nervous to me during the 6PM news conference yesterday – understandable, I guess, as this was a big occasion.]
According to TV media, she, having been delayed, was out of breath, having rushed to start the presser on time.
by OzPol Tragic on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:33 am
citizen
I thought the same thing as I saw Tim walking down the road. I thought it was a great image
by madcyril on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:33 am
We do have some great resident wits on PB, very good Ozy
by mari on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:35 am
Thanks Confessions, I can just imagine it, um er um er ERRRR Obi, silence——yes I am pleased you do agree with me Obi, I will pass that on to the waiting media outside
by mari on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:39 am
Abbott playing to the domestic audience. I doubt the comparison between our approach and that of the US matters to him. He just wants the topic to get a bit of airplay.
As usual, we’ll get a lot of what Abbott claims, and hardly anything of the response to it.
by Aguirre on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:40 am
me @ 2851
The video in question on the SMH actually says that the President mispronounced the PMs name as ‘Julie,’ but I’ve listened to it multiple times and he clearly says ‘Julia’ although without a big emphasis on the last ‘a’, which is part of his normal speech pattern, if they had bothered to listen to the rest.
I watched this press conference last night and did not remotely notice this alleged ‘gaffe’ which is a total beat up out of nothing, and. in fact, completely incorrect.
Talk about making stuff up and reporting crap!
by The Big Ship on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:41 am
Good one Ozy
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:41 am
Maybe he was talking about Julie Bishop?
by Smaug on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:41 am
Good morning bludgers, just wanted to agree with Puffy’s early morning post
Why-TF is Abbott being offered an opportunity to share the limelight (and f-it up in the process)?
by george on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:41 am
i Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
i am staying home to watch and listen to Obama’s speech. So he better be fucking good, just like when he was at New Hampshire #aubama
14 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:43 am
love this tweet from the Compadre
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:44 am
Fool Gilbert on Sky: (wtte) ‘It’s very interesting to speak to White House corros because they have a unique and very different take on Obama’s speeches compared to us.’
File this one under no shit, Sherlock.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:45 am
I agree with Carr. Gillard has delivered an excellent outcome in my opinion
by madcyril on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:46 am
Like Grattan, Farnsworth has never warmed to Gillard. An altogether negative spin on the events. I was surprised that he thought the uranium India possibility was so unrelated to it all. I can see several possibilities, albeit it is a secondary issue.
First it is alert to India becoming of rising regional importance in our sphere of the world, as China already is. Second it is a differentiation with the Greens which will not necessarily harm Labor’s pursuit of the centre ground. Third (if successful) it will almost certainly ensure South Australia becoming the next boom mining state provided water supply can be ensured.
The regional developments are relevant to Australia and the US, without threatening China. It is good locally. Mind you, we shouldn’t overrate its priority in the US. I couldn’t find a reference to it in the Huffpost today.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:47 am
A couple of overseas news reports
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/u-s-marines-to-be-stationed-in-australia-under-obama-gillard-defense-pact.html
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2011/11/2011111614245282935.html
by Leroy on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:48 am
What’s the protocol for Opposition Leaders giving speeches at state dinners etc? A guest on ABC 24 (can’t remember his name, some US / Aus expert) yesterday was relaying the story of Arthur Calwell giving a speech at a state dinner when Lyndon Johsnon was in Australia. He outlined Labors opposition to the Vietnam war, reciting some of the Gettysburg Address as part of his speech. Apparently Johnson then got up and gave a speech where he layed into Calwell.
by madcyril on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:50 am
Johsnon = Johnson
by madcyril on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:51 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/world/asia/obama-and-gillard-expand-us-australia-military-ties.html
New York Times version
by Leroy on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:52 am
http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/LatestNews/Speeches/tabid/88/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/8453/Address-to-a-Dinner-in-Honour-of-Barack-Obama-President-of-the-United-States-of-America-The-Great-Hall-Parliament-House.aspx
by Leroy on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:53 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
btw what historical “claim” USA has over Hawaii except annexation by brute force #aubama
12 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:54 am
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:56 am
The Big Ship, I don’t think it was a mistake. They were playing up the fact that he made one slip of the tongue as “Julie” even though he made a point several times later of saying “Julia”. I think it was their way of hinting at a “McMann” moment. -ie, she wasn’t really all that important to him.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:56 am
From Abbott’s speech last night:
Awful. Just awful.
http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/LatestNews/Speeches/tabid/88/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/8453/Address-to-a-Dinner-in-Honour-of-Barack-Obama-President-of-the-United-States-of-America-The-Great-Hall-Parliament-House.aspx
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:57 am
confessions
Imagine if JG had said that?
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:59 am
It’s standard practice/protocol as far as I’m aware.
by ltep on Nov 17, 2011 at 9:59 am
madcyril:
LOTOs usually get to give speeches at dinners like last night’s.
Remember Rudd speaking Mandarin at an APEC dinner as LOTO?
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:00 am
Aren’t there revolting people in the public gallery as well today – the CATA astroturfers?
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:03 am
confessions
I would be extremely surprised if CATA reps are in the public gallery today
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:07 am
Thanks ltep and confessions
I’d assumed it was standard practice for the Opposition leader to give a speech, but wasn’t sure.
by madcyril on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:08 am
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:08 am
victoria:
I would’ve thought so too, but remember last week someone commented that the anti CT mob were planning to attend parliament for Obama’s address. Outside PH are the ‘Yes we cannabis’ protesters, but no anti-CT people.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:09 am
Fess, like Julie Bishop, he plagiarises others’ words without acknowledging the author: in this case, Martin Luther King’s I have a dream speech:
by OzPol Tragic on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:10 am
Gorgeous Dunny @ 2877
See my subsequent post at 2861 where I have rejected their interpretation of what the President said. No-one else has reported on this alleged ‘gaffe’ and it was not noted in any analysis by any pundit I saw last night, and I watched hours of talking heads foaming and gushing over every word spoken, so how come no-one mentioned this calamitous insult to our PM last night?
by The Big Ship on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:10 am
Sbs.
I RECOMEND. better than their abc
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:12 am
The Press Gallery is full.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:15 am
What have they been drinking?
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:18 am
But then. Glowing remarks for president
Why the ”””’don’t journalists ever give credit to our. P m who has a very similar personality
k. Middleton, says abbott joking about and relaxed also.
Mmmmmm -???
Na switched off sbs also
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:18 am
You’d think Howard would have the good sense to be as far away from The Pres as possible. After all Ob is the terrorist candidate of choice isn’t he? There’s no tell what he might do – maybe pull a bomb from his coat pocket?
by Tom Hawkins on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:19 am
Yeah Tom, Obama’s election really worked out well for bin Laden, didn’t it!
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:21 am
I listened to this a couple of hours ago, to me it just seemed to be the way the words flowed together, the a was soft but still seemed to be there. You can find a flaw in anything if you look hard enough.
by paritybit on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:22 am
I have co e to the conclusion I just ca not stand, commentators. Talking to commentators
It never. Use to be like this,
The abc would of once said,,”we now cross to the HOR joint sitting for a speach from the president of the USA.”
Now. Its a mutual admiration society of ,,,
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:22 am
Wonder Woman is dead set boring!
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:24 am
David Speers and Fool Gilbert have been okay so far
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:25 am
And now for the anticlimactic prayer!
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:26 am