Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Watch A-pac – no commentators at all!
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:26 am
Harry now reciting Lord’s prayer
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:26 am
The last para of Abbott’s speech:
And he said this with a seriously straight face. BoatPhone Man said this?????
by imacca on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:27 am
I don’t think i will watch
Would prefer to listen,
In case there. Is a cringe moment
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:28 am
Here goes
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:29 am
The PM looking sensational
by george on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:29 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Oh dear, Obama snubbed Gillard, no kisses #aubama
47 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:30 am
Who is the man behind the PM to the right?
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:30 am
Abbott is a gauche and profoundly ignorant bogan.
by Cuppa on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:30 am
confessions
Dont know
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:31 am
Julia gives Obit the thumbs up for getting Bin Ladin. hehehehehe
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:32 am
The Pres was late. Wonder woman hinted that Abbott had the appointment just prior.
Was Abbott yabbering on too long????
by lizzie on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:33 am
I hope Julia does not mention the Rodent!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:34 am
When u. Go to apac. What then. What dou click on
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:35 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
When will Abbott move a censure motion against the PM? 10:50am? #aubama
20 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:35 am
Ugh. Abbott now.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:35 am
Great speech Julia.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:35 am
Here we go. Cringewatch!
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:35 am
God I can’t stand him
by george on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:36 am
Obama not smiling.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:36 am
fess,
don’t prejugde, we can wait to criticise when Abbott stuffs up. :evil grin:
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:36 am
He’s getting more bald by the minute. Hehehehe
by lizzie on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:37 am
Let me know when its. Over
Shudders
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:37 am
This is obsequious. It’s embarrassing.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:37 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
oh dear, grovel grovel grovel from John Howard’s love child, Wangker #aubama
15 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:38 am
Now Abbott is justifying Geo W Bush’s (and the Rodent’s) foray into Iraq.
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:38 am
gee Obama looked grim just then
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:38 am
A bald-faced liar?
by Scarpat on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:38 am
It’s embarrassing
by Laocoon on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:38 am
Would anyone excuse me if I refuse to worship America as the saviour of the world? Dammit, they’re not perfect.
by lizzie on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:38 am
Lizzie, do I see the beginnings of a sony walkman combover?
by george on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:39 am
Howard!
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:40 am
Ugh, he is rabbitting on with Afghanistan and Iraq when Obama is pulling the troops out. Now the fecker does local politics, LNP Coaltiion ffecks sake.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:40 am
Partisan political point scoring now.
He’s awful, just awful.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:40 am
FFS
by george on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:40 am
Pan to the rodent, when this sheet going to finish, Obi will miss his plane!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:40 am
FFS. He is a wangker!!!!
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:40 am
Where’s Hyacinth?
No invitation?
My, she’ll be LIVID!
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:40 am
WTF is Abbott going on about John Howard. He’ rambling on and making this speech political the lowlife.
by imacca on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:41 am
george
Actually, he’s got a “forward quiff” effect. Could get worse with age!
by lizzie on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:41 am
I don’t think Obama is impressed with Abbott’s speech. He politicised it, which was innappropriate.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:41 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
WTF, mentioning John Howard who looked down Pres. Obama, what an insult to Obi #aubama
12 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:42 am
Obi not impressed by Abbott’s reference to those governments who have spent and borrowed beyond their means.
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:42 am
Abbott is a frickin joke
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:42 am
Mineral tax wtferret.
My mum wants to throw a shoe at abbott.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:42 am
Ugh, awful. As I posted last night: The sooner this dreadful, witless, bogan of an uninspiring excuse for the LOTO is gone from public political life, the better for all Australians, both to the left and right.
by george on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:42 am
It just cant help itself
by Laocoon on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:42 am
“This is obsequious. It’s embarrassing.”
No, it’s not. It is entirely appropriate . I don’t think there is a need to look for a conspiracy behind every bush.
Actually, further into his speech, he is being an arsehole, bringing local politics into it. He really can’t help himself.
Looks like you were right. He started off OK but his own negativity can’t hep but take over. I wonder how Grattan will see it?
by Roy Orbison on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:42 am
Abbott making himself an ass. Hmm…. trying to increase its value pre-sale??
by imacca on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:43 am
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 10:43 am