Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
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by george on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:12 am
Nah.. Abbott is just and uncouth little prat.
by imacca on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:12 am
Humourous Harry!
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:13 am
Honestly david w
So u approve do u of abbotts down to earth comments then, lol
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:13 am
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:13 am
And what’s this new buzz word precious
Another silly new word,
In a silly out of context way.
My grandchildren are precious, my royal douton is precious to me a I don’t want it broken
Fed up with silly new buzz words
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:16 am
What a great little summary by Harry. Not too long, very warm and very humorous.
The president loved it.
by Darn on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:16 am
Abbott’s Graham Greene reference (to an American president?!) reflects upon his exceptionally narrow world view which, dare I say it, is just too Catholic: a life in St Ignatius Riverview, St Johns College, parliament…well Graham Greene is just a natural reference, good Catholic author
by Laocoon on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:18 am
Obama meets Sophie. She’s probably lamenting his young age.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:18 am
settle down Mirabella, he’s not old enough
by george on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:18 am
Why would Abbott quote Graham Greene? May as well have quoted Fidel Castro who Greene admired.
by shellbell on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:18 am
confessions!!!
by george on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:19 am
confessions
If Latika is right, that is very rude of Howard.
by lizzie on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:19 am
Well. David w I notice letika thinks, so to , see her tweet
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:20 am
by Space Kidette on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:20 am
Why is peta Credlin in the chamber?
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:21 am
I have never,heard of. G, gree n
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:21 am
Overall, a good speech by Obama, I think. Improved the longer it went on. Picking over its innards is less useful than accepting the whole.
by lizzie on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:21 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Overheard, Obama to Joe Hockey: How many KFC have you had today Joe?” #aubama
54 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:22 am
lizzie:
Howard appears to be standing by his comments about Obama.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:23 am
confessions
Why indeed?
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:23 am
Scarpat
NZ was the first nation. South Australia were the first to allow women to stand for parliament though.
by poroti on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:23 am
Abbott cannot help himself, can he?
He lives, breathes and sweats his compulsion to do anything for the top job.
Classic narcissist: his obsessions should be ours too.
This includes POTUS, parliament, the Australian people and anyone who gives him the time of day.
They do it to be polite. They don’t expect a rave like that back in return.
by Bushfire Bill on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:24 am
Peta Credlin gate crashes parliament, so rude.
by geezlouise on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:24 am
fess, she is there to give Abbott the necessary support and comfort
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:24 am
Very Interesting what wikkie says about, green,
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:24 am
Tasmania. Was first re vote g we also had the first postage stamp
by my say on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:26 am
confessions
Hyacinth never forgets a grudge and keeps Howie in line.
by lizzie on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:26 am
my say
This is what Wikipedia has to say about The Quiet American by Graham Greene:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Quiet_American
by Laocoon on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:27 am
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:28 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
The picture that terrified Tony Abbott http://twitpic.com/7f4r5p/full #aubama
34 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:29 am
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:30 am
Great double page spread in the Herald Sun today including several pictures of JG and Obama together. Obviously a great rapport between them. Also a very good article and photo on the features page.
I’ll be very surprised if there isn’t a bit of a kick in the Newspoll this weekend.
by Darn on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:31 am
Perhaps I misheard, but I thought Obama said thank you to the oppn leader, Peter Abbott (as in Peter Rabbit).
Seriously. I’m sure he didn’t say Tony or Anthony.
by lizzie on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:33 am
Wow, that Farnsworth article is lame even for him. The Obama criticism I think is valid (though I don’t think its all his fault), but then he can’t help but get into his usual petty obsessions when trying to discuss Gillard. Oh no, there’s no policy reasons for anything (he probably didn’t even bother reading the reasons for the India policy), she’s the new Thatcher, there’s no intellectual debate anymore, Gillard and Abbott are really the same and she had the nerve to praise America while giving an address in the US Congress, lord. And then the obligatory Kevin Rudd mention at the end to show what he’s really hankering for, a male in power again.
by rishane on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:33 am
carey moore @ 2853
Caught up with that
Very much agree with that – again to use the Norway example, using its temporary resource use of oil to build a permanent sovereign wealth fund (ie transferring asset from oil to SWF) results in a prosperous economy in which it has the strength to chart it own course – for example, to infuriate China with the Nobel Peace Prize
by Laocoon on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:33 am
George,
2997
You put it so much more eloquently than me. I wish Harry had red-carded Abbott as soon as he set foot in the chamber!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:33 am
Laocoon
Greene is described as a salon communist – dont know what it means but interesting expression.
Major stuff up to quote him IMHO. If PM had done it Bolt et al would be apoplectic
by shellbell on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:34 am
I generally find Abbott an annoying pratt but just don’t see anything wrong with what he said at the end of that speech and I doubt Obama would have either. The way Gillard communicates grates with me as well. I don’t have a lot of faith in the communication skills of out current leaders. But then Rudd is a good communicator but he is a pratt as well.
by DavidWH on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:34 am
Last night I said people were overreaching criticising Abbott’s pre-dinner speech.
Today’s was rude and diplomatically ignorant. Quite reprehensible behaviour from the Liberal Party topped off with John Howard’s extraordinarily poor behaviour in refusing to applaud.
I confidently predict Abbott will get off scot free while the MSM comments on a couple of line stumbles by the PM.
by roaldan1000 on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:34 am
DavidWH
Abbott is a total and utter embarrassment.
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:36 am
Finns
Re the China People’s Daily report you quoted earlier (2780) …what is your assessment of that reaction: pro-forma to be expected or a 9.8 on the richter scale?
by Laocoon on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:38 am
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:38 am
my say
Them sneaky South Australians beat Tassie by 9 years for women’s suffrage.Rummaging around about voting rights I found this amazing situation in NZ. Maori men over 21 were given universal suffrage in 1867, European men did not get it until 12 years later in 1879.
by poroti on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:39 am
If Latike is right about Howard not clapping, what was he doing at the State Dinner and why was he there today? Rodent is as Rodent does.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:39 am
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:39 am
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
They still cant get away from China, someone observed this is a Ying & Yang moment http://twitpic.com/7f4r5p/full – how true, black and white #auspol
10 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:43 am
Gillard & Abbott speech summaries from The Age blog
http://www.theage.com.au/national/live-barack-obamas-australia-visit-20111116-1ni9j.html
by Leroy on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:43 am
Free grub.
by Carey Moore on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:43 am
poroti,
Thanks re women’s vote.
by Scarpat on Nov 17, 2011 at 11:43 am