Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Btw Victorian Nurses have been ordered by FWA to cease protected industrial action for 90 days and negotiate a deal with the state govt. Apparently the nurses union have said they will defy the order and strike on Monday
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:02 pm
I’ll tidy that last post of mine up.
I agree. She has improved which makes me belive she is capable of further improvement. She learns from her mistakes. Surely that must give her some chance of overcoming any further personal obsticles in regard to presentation.
Actually, I believe the carbon tax issue will become a plus for Labor and JG at the next election.
by Gary on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:03 pm
The one thing I agree with Farnsworth on in his column is the msm obsession with the so-called ‘props’ Obama brought out with him: AF1, the convoy, his car, the security effort.
Am sick of rolling vision of his plane taxiing runways, taking off, landing etc.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Bob Brown presser now.
by This little black duck on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:05 pm
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:06 pm
Now you’re talking, TLM. A very, very effective pair and well suited to their respective jobs.
When I saw Howard sitting in the Gallery I thought – he hasn’t changed. For someone who spoke so snarkily about Obama I found it galling to think he’d want to be there.
I guess I still haven’t forgiven him and Hyacinth for the way they treated the Labor women during the Clintons visit in the late 90s. It says a lot for Gillard that she genuinely laughed at Abbott’s jokes last night. The only smiles Labor gets from Abbott is when he makes a derogatory remark about JG or the Govt. which he knows the media will pick up.
by BH on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:10 pm
DavidWH @ 3126
There is a lot of truth in what you say.
There are some excellent posts here but many are just over the top histrionics. (e.g. 3128)
The trouble with that is it just detracts from the good posts.
by bemused on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Bob is giving Tone a right bollocking.
by This little black duck on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:15 pm
http://www.theage.com.au/national/australia-switches-to-cleaner-energy-20111116-1nj7f.html#ixzz1dveO3U7m
by lefty e on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:17 pm
SkyNews must be getting bored with all this. I didn’t have to worry about missing the speeches this morning. They’ll probably keep running it all for yonks. Speers and Gilbert seem to be transfixed by the name Howard.
by BH on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:17 pm
On economic stuff, the situation is a bit like politics: Australia is doing fine at the moment, but the rest of the world is far from settled. Italian debt is worrying every commentator I take seriously, as this post shows:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/11/italian-default-scenarios.html
He even thinks Australia and Canada would take a major hit from Italian collapse or withdrawl from the Euro. Time to switch the super back to cash?
For this and other reasons I wouldn’t burn my bridges with Beijing too soon.
by Socrates on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:19 pm
The world is noticing
OBI and Julia a “little handsy”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2011/nov/17/barack-obama-julia-gillard-pictures
by gough1 on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:20 pm
Someone raised a point yesterday that Tone is starting to age visibly and the hair is thinning with an expanding bald patch.
It started me wondering just what Tone would look like in another decade or three…I thought long and hard and came to the conclusion. Billy Hughes!
So George, there’s an idea for your cartoons…. morph Tone into Billy Hughes. The jug ears are there, the increasingly gaunt features…
by bemused on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:21 pm
Didn’t she have her hand up his clacker working his lips while her husband threw Abbott’s voice for the speech?
As in the following:
http://www.kmprod.com/norma2.jpg
As for Laocoon’s enquiry:
Definitely pro-forma. If they’s really cracked it, we would have had a spiel about the “peace-loving Chinese people being betrayed by the running dogs of American Imperialism” or something similar.
by smithe on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:23 pm
Just listening to Tone’s speech. What a shocker!
Communists??? Australia, ‘Indivisible under God’. What a tool!!
by lefty e on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Socrates
Re China…a bearish article
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-chinas-real-estate-collapse
Given what happened to US financials last night, I am surprised how resilient the big banks’ share prices are today
by Laocoon on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:26 pm
bemused
A lifetime surfeit of testosterone can do that to a bloke.
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Bemused
I was thinking Gollum
by gough1 on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:27 pm
The people working on JG’s website seem to be getting faster with putting up transcripts. http://www.pm.gov.au/press-office/resolve-and-confidence-our-two-nations-has-always-served-high-purpose-speech-joint-sitt
A lot of it is the standard rhetoric, but I like the emphasis on Curtin and (as a general comment, not just on today) its always nice seeing how with an atheist PM the religious stuff is left out.
by rishane on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:27 pm
The speeches today confirmed my perceptions of the various players. Obama is an excellent orator and the content was great. Drawing on genuine similarities between Australia and the US in origin, culture and outlook demonstrated why we are friends and allies. His admiration of the history of the relationship and achievements like The Apology reflected a man that was interested as well as interesting.
Gillard was statesmanlike in her speech and it is clear that she is growing in confidence as her term in office extends. She’s clearly comfortable in Foreign Policy and her charm and style seems to be appreciated by other world Leaders including Obama. Of course the claim can be that it’s all for show and that Howard had a strong and personal relationship with George W. To this I say, good.
Unfortunately with Abbott, he too confirmed my perceptions. Introducing partisan political issues into a welcome speech was rather tacky. Traducing Obama in to the Liberal politics of the Carbon Tax was extremely tawdry. But what do you expect from a political opportunist focussed solely on achieving power at the expense of articulating why he wants it and what he is going to do with it?
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:30 pm
gough1 @ 3167
Billy Hughes… Gollum… is there much difference?
by bemused on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Silvio must be jealous!
smithe – thanks for that assessement
by Laocoon on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:31 pm
Those en route to Darwin will need their wet weather gear
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR633.loop.shtml#skip
by shellbell on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Gary regarding the carbon tax I expect it to become less of an issue with time. There will be plenty of folks who will be happy with their compensation in July 2012 which will be a plus for the government. However that disguises the real impact of the legislation which will only bite in subsequent years. We have had precious little transparency of what the impact will be in 2015, 2020 and beyond. Surely the government doesn’t intend to continue to over-compensate selected groups as the impact increases?
But the fundamental problem I have with the policy is the lack of addressing the core issue/problem in the absence of any global concensus. Anyone who heard what Obama said yesterday on a US emission policy would have to have serious doubts we will see any global agreement in the foreseeable future.
by DavidWH on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:35 pm
gough1
A bit like this and such appropriate words too.
“Must have precious. They stole it from us.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLvIFRNbqOs
by poroti on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:37 pm
The idea of 2500 US Marines in a small town like Darwin sounds like us getting royally rogered into a extremely bad idea for no significant strategic advantage?
Gillard wants to careful of Australian ideas of dignity and balance here. I think she’s going way too far on several fronts.
250 Marines will do it. Symbolic – small, manageable tensions in darwin. Leave it at that JG.
by lefty e on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:40 pm
Ah you’re back poroti’
You are responsible for me spending more than two hours watching old Les Patterson clips.
Strewth he is so good.
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:40 pm
The US Political Elites can’t grasp the changes taking place in the world…
…but change.is coming .. wheather they like it or not !!
______________________________________
This article by US academic/Viet.war hero.Andrew Bracevich who lost a son in Iraq,writes a telling article on the way the US political elites in Washington simplv can’t grasp the real meaning of the way the world is changing and leaving the US standing…
The rise and rise of China/the Arab Spring.the emergence of Brazil and India as major powers.and the alarming collapse of much of US industry,are taking place while the US elites are in denial.
A common error for declining. nations…..look at the British …who still think they rule the world
His article is a dash of cold water to those who attach too much importance to Obama and others in the US
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/blog/big-change-whether-we-like-it-or-not/
by deblonay on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:42 pm
BK,
I am sure Tone must have spent hours taking lessons from Les Patterson.
by Space Kidette on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:43 pm
Kidette
Like a duck to water
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:44 pm
davidwh,
Another variation on the “it won’t change nothing, so why do it” mantra of the whingeing conservatives. It’s going to be a terrible day when July 2012 happens and we’re all still alive.
You guys are like that guru in America that spent most of his life predicting the end of the world.
Get over yourself and enjoy yhe prosperity.
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:47 pm
BK,
It probably explains why I like watching #qt as much as I do! I’m always looking for a laugh!
by Space Kidette on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:48 pm
A few trivial things I noticed during the morning (in between taking the cat to the vet and dealing with worried familiy members anxious about the condition of said moggy).
Mr President shook hands with Tony Windsor twice – once as he entered the chamber and again as he was leaving – this time introduced by the PM. The PM also introduced Rob Oakeshott, she actually stopped the pres walking away and drew him back to meet Oakeshott.
Speers and Gilbert on Sky News using every possible opportunity (and some barely possible) to say ‘Kevin Rudd’ and ‘leadership/prime minister’ in the same sentence. It got a bit boring, if I’d had some alcohol handy and had taken a shot every time they did it I’d be too sozzled to type now.
The gall/hypocrisy of the members of the oposition – the same bunch who booed the announcement of Obama’s visit were this morning falling over themselves to shake his hand.
by leone on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:49 pm
Lefty e 3175 Re Darwin and US troops
__________________
If the tension on Okinawa (Japan)are any gauge the US troops in Darwin will soon turn local opinion sour
On Okinawa the US troop[s…there since 1945 ….have created a climate of hostility which is now affecting US Japanese relations nationwide…rape/child abuse/drugs…the lot !
Another problem is the low value of the US Dollar against the Yen ,which makes life outside the base difficult for the US soldiers..Japan is an expensive place..
When all the fine words are said ,reality in Darwin may prove a nasty shock for the future.
by deblonay on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:49 pm
leftye,
Of course you do. You’re a Green and think Defence of Australia and our interests is an optional extra.
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:50 pm
Brown is a hypocrite – the death toll is much higher now than it was 8 years ago. The only reason he didn’t interject on Obama is because he is more popular here than Bush was, and it would’ve reflected very poorly on Brown.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:50 pm
GG I accepted the fact we will have this carbon tax from the second Gillard announced her change of mind. For myself personally it will be cash flow negative but I can afford it so I will lose no sleep over it. It’s the people who will be sleeping more relaxed in the knowledge this will reduce our global emissions I have sympathy for. They are being misled. In the absence of a global concensus it will do diddly-squat for overall CO2 emission reduction.
by DavidWH on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:56 pm
Poroti
Spooky, the resemblance is even closer than I remembered.
Just like watching a suspension of standing orders.
by gough1 on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:56 pm
Here we go! Obama takes aim at the sole remaining quasi-independent foreign policy line we have: China.
Way to reassure them about the increased US presence.
Me, I say we oppose 2500 marines in Darwin. 250 will do fine, thanks.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/obama-takes-aim-at-china-in-new-asian-world-order-20111117-1nk6j.html
by lefty e on Nov 17, 2011 at 2:59 pm
‘Defence’ from what, GG? Sounds like attracting tensions and problems rather than dealing with them.
by lefty e on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:00 pm
davidwh,
The bi partisan objective is 5% by 2020. This is what the legislation seeks to achieve.
All your rantings about consensusly misled diddly squats is the rhetoric of the whingeing conservatives who are simply intent on denying the Government any credit for getting on with the job.
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:01 pm
The problem we have ATM is the congress, not the POTUS. If Obama wins the next election and the congress becomes Obama friendly then who knows what will happen re US concensus at least.
by Gary on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:01 pm
Time will tell no doubt and no doubt there will be issues, but I would be very cautious about too direct comparisons between Darwin (2,500 US military over sparsely populated area) and Okinawa (~26,000 military in densely populated narrow area)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okinawa_Prefecture#U.S._military_controversy
The cultural gap between Japan and US societies is also rather greater than AU and US
by Laocoon on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:04 pm
BK
You got the best end of the deal there. I just returned from a meeting with a patent lawyer ! Yes Les is very good. Praise be to youtube that we can watch such clips.
by poroti on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:05 pm
poroti
You’re right there. I did get the best end of it.
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:06 pm
It’s nice to have an opinion DavidWH, even if wrong. This is the beginning of a process that is inevitable if we are to switch to a future where polluting the planet isn’t a taken when trying to fuel our homes and businesses.
What you fail to understand is that this is where it all begins, for each country, and whether it is the best system, or a compromise, in the long run, is irrelevant. This is about a struggle to move away from one form of technology, one form of power and control over humans to a whole other form. Those in control of the current one are not happy, and the Libs as a party are supporting the status quo. It is obvious when you consider who backs them behind the scenes.
by george on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:07 pm
lefty whats your problem here with the Americans in Darwin? You are not happy but give no ‘good’ reason why? Lets be having you.
by david on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:09 pm
lefty e,
If we had announced 25,000 you would probably have argued for 2500. Obviously, the people that actually organise these things haven’t got access to your over powering intellect and strategic nous.
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:11 pm
2500 US Marines in Darwin 6 mths of the year is a big number when compared to Australia’s total number of deployable Infantry troops of no more than 6000 at the most at any given time.
6000 is probably an over estimation of what Infantry we would be capable of deploying at short notice – see comment # 2828 on Page # 57 for further details.
I wonder when the media is going to ask whether these 2500 US Marines are going to be subject to Australian/ Northern Territory Laws while they are here or whether any *problem* will be dealt with under US Laws.
by dave on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Gary I agree the problem is the Congress and not Obama however that doesn’t change the outcome.
GG there was a report out yesterday that showed Australia was ranked 22 out of the 97 countries included in the report for taking action on climate change and that was before the effects of the current legislation are factored in. The spin that we haven’t been pulling our weight is part of the distortion being peddled by the government and others that has a lot of people offside. We have been paying in our utilities for green programs for years. Also the 5% is a political target and not a meaningful target to make a real contribution to global emission reductions.
by DavidWH on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:14 pm