Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
DavidWH @ 3186
All of your concerns pre-suppose that carbon intensity remains the same and that cost relativities of coal generation and renewables remains the same.
Solar is already trending strongly downward and should be competitive with coal in a very few years. A price on carbon brings that day forward.
Australia’s price on carbon and action by other governments will stimulate technological development. I am not worried about this aspect of the future.
by bemused on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:15 pm
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Puff,
I was just reading your post last night re the search for your doggies.Have you emailed lost dog posters to all the vets in your area and beyond? I am assuming your dogs have micro chips. Its a long shot, but they might be taken to a vet at some stage.
You have probably already done this. It really is a horrible thing to have happened and I wish you all the best with your search.
by sisyphus on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:17 pm
George I agree it is a very small step in a long process but would be much happier if all the participants were stepping out at the same time and we has some basic understanding of where we were heading.
by DavidWH on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:17 pm
Durr – 2828 = 2818
by dave on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:19 pm
bemused re 3200 believe me this is one circumstance where I will be very happy to be wrong. Problem is I am not sure I will be around long enough to find out unless I make the ton.
by DavidWH on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:22 pm
DavidWH
Yes Australia should be aiming for higher unemployment, bigger debt, just so we could be the same as everyone else
by victoria on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:22 pm
Isn’t that one of the aims of the policy victoria?
by DavidWH on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:25 pm
DavidWH, we DO have a very good understanding of where we are headed – the science is in, the experts agree, the steps necessary are obvious, it just requires the courage to get on with it.
As for the same old argument of “wait until everyone is ready”, never gonna happen. The world is a complex place and requires leaders to show the rest where and how to move forward, otherwise nothing would progress beyond lighting fires with sticks and sleeping in caves.
by george on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:28 pm
davidwh,
Red Herrings and Strawmen! Is that all you’ve got?
That report was actually quoted by the Government to demonstrate Australia wasn’t leading the pack on CC. This was just another of the dishonest claims made by the Libs and their shills.
So, they have not met a target or goal that was never a part of their intention and this is seen as a bad thing. The CC legislation won’t stop the Middle east war either. Shame, Labor Shame!
You are full of denial, visceral hatred and insignificance. You need to relax. Our future is assuered. The Countries in the very best of hands.
by Greensborough Growler on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:28 pm
Well put GG
by george on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:29 pm
Thanks for those wonderful insights GG. Now, lets see if yuo can explain how 2500 marines permanently stationed in darwin helps us (as opposed to the US).
Cos if you or Gillard cant – the policy is a dog.
David Here’s my assessment of the problems:
a. It will create rather than resolve any tension with our neighbours
b. It doesnt help the impression that we dont have an independent foreign policy (Keating would never have allowed this)
c. Go to Darwin much? I do. It’ll turn into Okinawa. I predict major tensions.
by lefty e on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:30 pm
They talk funny?
Seriously, though when my missus heard about the agreement she was unhappy too. “They’re war-mongers” she said.
Given the track record of the Bushes, pere et fil, it’s rather difficult to argue with that, but I had a go anyway: “Obama’s not. He’s inherited two crappy wars from GW and is trying to shut them down.”
“Sure” she says, “but what about the next guy? What happens when they elect another retard like Bush? And he starts another war?”
As someone posted above, countries have no permanent friends, only permanent interests. The question for us is: Where do our permanent interests lie? In cosying-up to the US or in balancing our trade and security interests in good relationships with China, India and the US?
This pick-a-side stuff doesn’t work too well. We tried hiding under Britain’s Far East blanket in 1941 and that didn’t work-out for us, now did it?
I would like to see a far more independent foreign-policy with this country attempting to maintain a balanced security relationship with all three powers in our neck of the woods (China, India and the USA) rather than just with one.
Think of it as a three-legged stool. Much more stable than a one-legged one.
Maybe we should be asking them all to station a few troops or to come out for joint exercises in our northern training grounds. After all, the Prez did say he wanted to foster closer ties with the Chinese military as a confidence booster.
Here’s our chance to grant his wish.
by smithe on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:30 pm
The report yesterday wasn’t from our government GG.
by DavidWH on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:32 pm
Abbott’s speeches to Obama:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxRjy29l-WE&feature=feedu
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZ5Fmgenavc&feature=feedu
by Frank Calabrese on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:40 pm
I think you can rest assured that he has been directed to that footage already and knew who the Grade A hypocrites were when he was shaking hands with them.
by Danny Lewis on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:41 pm
For masochists only (you sadist Frank).
by Scarpat on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:44 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-17/news-limited-boss-faces-media-inquiry/3677510
Yeah. Sure!
by BK on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:48 pm
Here is one problem that the increased US presence in Darwin will cause, noise. Each year there is an exercise called Operation Pitch Black in Darwin with US,Singaporean, Australian and other air forces practising night bombing and other stuff. The airport used by the airforce is right in Darwin and the noise for the few days is considerable. See following link. It only happens for a couple of days a year and there is still a bit of grumbling. Greatly increasing very loud military aircraft flights will not please the locals.Mind you the sight of a B52 slowly climbing from the airport and lumbering south towards Humpty Doo looks pretty impressive.
http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2008/06/23/4463_ntnews.html
by poroti on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:51 pm
Supreme Court Justice Stephen Kaye’s opinion in the Guthrie vs News Ltd case:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/05/14/guthrie-wins-out-in-unfair-dismissal-case-judge-slams-harto-blunden/
by Scarpat on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:54 pm
If you don’t like Labor policy, then don’t vote Labor.
Simple.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:55 pm
It doesn’t seem like that much of an upgrade to me. US ships and planes could use our facilities if agreed previously, and the facilities in discussion remain Australian bases, not US with the sovereignty implied. Also, if US Marines are here, it does not make us more or less likely to join in any war the USA gets into. Western Europe had the lot in the cold war, but didn’t join in Vietnam, and many other countries are in the same position now, having forces but never involved in Iraq or Afghanistan.
Of course we’ve jumped into most things, but I don’t think having or not having US forces stationed in our facilities would make any difference in that decision making.
by Leroy on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:56 pm
I know. Thats why I vote Green.
But I pref ALP, and prefer they didnt adopt dog policies.
by lefty e on Nov 17, 2011 at 3:57 pm
shouldn’t that be ‘running dog’ policies?
by Scarpat on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:00 pm
I’ve been looking for more detail about the American presence in NT
This is from the Oz:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/obama-in-australia/us-president-touches-down-at-fairbairn-airforce-base/story-fnb0o39u-1226197111255
by lizzie on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:00 pm
What happens if war breaks out in the monsoon season?
by Scarpat on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:02 pm
Then don’t preference the ALP either. You should structure your ballot according to the parties/candidates who advocate policies you support.
I see no sense getting het up about something like this when a) you (and only you) are responsible for how you vote, and b) there are far more important issues to become worked up over.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:02 pm
Prettymuch. And listening to it (I must be one of said masochists :p ), there’s no comparison between Abbott and Gillard as far as sycophancy goes. Yet another reason the ‘they’re TEH SAME!’ argument is BS.
by rishane on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:04 pm
Leroy @ 3221,
Spot on.
All this is nothing new.
USA forces in their 1000′s train in the NT on a regular basis and for extended periods.
To me the announcement yesterday is nothing more than a “formalisation ” of what already goes on.
With all due respect to the MSM and other commentators it continues to surprise me how little so many know about what is actually happening in this country and then when it is bought to their attention how they react.
Just because the MSM has become aware of it does not make it new.
by Doyley on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:06 pm
Tonight’s 7.30 Program – Leigh Sayles interviewing Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:07 pm
Dolly on Their ABC95
by Frank Calabrese on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:07 pm
And oh god, Abbott thinks he has such a killer line with the ‘less seamless transition’ line, its pathetic to watch.
by rishane on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:08 pm
And all your dreams have come true….
by Frank Calabrese on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:09 pm
I’m also amused by the subtlety of his ‘god bless’ ending, which as always with him is code for ‘GAH! SHE’S A HEATHEN!’.
by rishane on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:10 pm
Goo’deye everyone (to quote a well-known American).
Proud I am of our PM.
Disappointed but not surprised by our LOTO
Extremely glad that we have some discerning Indies (cause if the rabbit’s rabble had had control we would really look bad in the world’s eyes right now!)
by jenauthor on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:13 pm
rishane:
It was a dreadful speech from Abbott.
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:14 pm
What happens if war breaks out in the monsoon season?
Perhaps US soldiers don’t work in the rain.
by DavidWH on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:14 pm
Hartigan denies News Ltd is running a campaign of bias against the Federal Government all the whilst printing garbage headlines such as:
It’s such a shame the media in Australia is such an embarrassment.
by ltep on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:14 pm
Better bring a spare pair of jocks …
by Danny Lewis on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:14 pm
Apologies if others have already commented on this, but I found it hard not to laugh at the statement by News Ltd boss John Hartigan to the media inquiry:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-17/news-limited-boss-faces-media-inquiry/3677510
Perhaps I worry too much about grammar, meaning and logical truth but, how can self-regulation be independent of what is being regulated? George Orwell would be proud. It isn’t independent. Wouldn’t it be better to call it internal regulation? Oops, that might expose that there isn’t actually any independent regulation of the media.
by Socrates on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:15 pm
Meanwhile in the New Zealand election, there is another case of an ‘accidental’ recording of a private conversation haunting a standing leader (NZ PM John Key).
I can’t help but think that if this happened in Australia the papers wouldn’t bother requesting permission from Ms Gillard to disclose the contents of the tape. Maybe I’m just cynical.
by ltep on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:17 pm
Two articles in the French newspaper Le Monde re Obama’s visit to Australia (can use Google Translate for (a rough) translation if interested):
To Counter China, the United States is Reinforcing its Presence in Australia:
http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2011/11/16/pour-contrer-la-chine-l-armee-americaine-renforce-sa-presence-en-australie_1604429_3216.html#ens_id=1604685
The Chinese Dilemma for Australia:
http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2011/11/16/le-dilemme-chinois-de-l-australie_1602591_3232.html
by Scarpat on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:20 pm
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Pres.Obama said China should uphold International Law. Someone tell me please, which Int Law was upheld by USA when it invaded Iraq?
1 minute ago
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:26 pm
The law of the gun.
by Scarpat on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:28 pm
Thanks lefty, I suspected that was the reasoning behind your thinking, greens…took a while but thanks for the confirmation.
Thanks Smithe, read with interest.
TLM..you are the first blog stalker I have come across
by david on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:29 pm
The best proof of that was, even among the media that normally fawn over Abbott, it has sunk without trace.
I should add that my earlier comments were not intended as a criticism of Gillard’s speech, or Obama’s either. Both spoke well. It is just that the reality of US politics at present is such that they have too many problems to fix to be likely to do anything that helps us (or any other ally that isn’t in hock to them for a few hundred billion).
by Socrates on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:29 pm
Soc, this one for you:
by The Finnigans on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:34 pm
Chinese NewsAnchor from CCTV being interviewed on Sky Agenda doing a very very very poor job for China.
He came over as a total buffoon, Yes worse even that the Abominal No Man.
Sounds as if he was trained by the Soviets.
by dave on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:36 pm
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/military/july-dec11/australia2_11-16.html
Intelligent summary from the U.S.’s PBS Newshour
Transcript & Video
by Leroy on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:38 pm
by confessions on Nov 17, 2011 at 4:45 pm